The claim that the Democratic health care law is a "government takeover of health care" is our 2010 Lie of the Year.


Liar Liar Pants on Fire

The #1 Political Lie of the Year

From PolitiFacts, an organization that that takes shots at ALL politicians and groups, the #1 lie of the year. A drum role please…


“A Government Takeover of Health Care”

Pants on Fire!

LINK to Story Once the Tea Party, Fox News, Business lobbyists and right wing political bomb throwers got finished destroying any rational debate on Health Care THE LIE that it was a government takeover still being used today won out over other political fabrications.

What really happened was a “free market” (giveaway to the big insurance companies) takeover instead of the compromise public option -The approach favored by almost all other Western Democracies.  But who could tell because American media focus is on who screams the loudest.


Does Conrgess Serve You or the Banks?

Quote from incoming Republican House Financial Services Committee chair and Tea Party favorite Spencer Bachus

in Washington, the view is that the banks are to be regulated, and my view is that Washington and the regulators are there to serve the banks.”

I’m not joking this is a real quote - LINK here for full story. You may not like him, but at least former chair Democrat Barney Frank often stood up for taxpayers and wasn’t 100% in the back pocket of Shadow Banks.

Shadow Banking Bonuses

Irony is this AM CNBC’s (By far the largest stock market cheerleading outlet) is headlining that Bankers in Europe are having their bonuses cut. Now that Republican/Tea Party people are coming to power how about those Wall Street shadow banks bonus and compensation packages for the six biggest shadow banks. Care to guess how much they get?

seiu bank comp 2010-12.png

Here’s the SEIU (a labor union) on what the Shadow bankers make.

We are about to endure a right wing feeding freenzy over the next few years of asking cops, firefighters, teachers, municipal workers, government employees to cut, freeze (freeze part done by Obama with Federal workers) their salaries and/or loose their jobs.  How about considering the shadow bankers????

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary



Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.06% up
NASDQ +0.21% up
S&P 500 +0.08% up
Russell 2000 +0.38% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose slightly Friday+0.24%. yesterday. However closed just above a two week consolidation range. A breakout here would be bullish for the dollar and bearish for stocks. = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Rate of fall increased to -1.43% Friday. (see below) = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] rose to +1.01 This gives stocks lots of room to move up or down. Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves -

Friday’s blog made a clear Bulls and bears case. The outlook for the bulls seemed stronger till the end of the year. Outside events like a North vs. South Korea escalation would negatively impact stocks.

  • The BDI has fallen 700 points in the last two months. Its at 1999 and has a major support at around 1700. That’s the line in the sand bad news support level. If the BDI falls below this big bad bears should rile. Even the 700 point drop is significant. In late spring/early summer the benchmark S&P fell about 10%. Correspondingly the BDI fell a huge 2400 points to 1700. Therefore relatively a 700 point drop is not that bad, but it happening while stocks are RISING. This is a divergence to keep an eye on.
  • The dollar is also pushing out to the upside of a short consolidation range. Another bearish grow that’s worth watching.

Markets obviously change due to outside events. So while the case for the bulls remains stronger the case for the bear is growing.


The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) -1/2 positions sold
  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) -
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO - (double short the EURO currency) Bought Friday at 20.76

UWM - Note that even though major US indexes makes small gains that the Russell 2000 (small caps stocks) usually does better than its other three sisters (see box above) UWM is an ETF that does 2x what small caps do.

EEM – Even though we are still in the green with this this ETF it is under performing US stocks. The BDI is a good forecast tool for emerging markets that rely on trade more so than more developed countries. The whole world, of course, relies on trade. So considering selling the remainder.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


  • Share/Save/Bookmark