News /Trends/ Politics

  • United Nations – “voted Thursday to authorize military action, including air strikes against Libyan tanks and heavy artillery and a no-fly zone, a risky foreign intervention aimed at averting a bloody rout of rebels by forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.”  Thanks to Popeye for heads up on NYT story
  • Japan – Someone, somewhere, somehow really knows what’s going on. But their lips are sealed as Japanese government says one thing and other countries say something else. Latest news “smoke from reactors,” at Huffington Post. This smoke and mirrors is exactly like the shadow banking system in the USA who doesn’t even have to follow FASB
  • Anonymous – More on the internet hacker group that “above all intends to break the international banking cartel centered at the Fed
  • United Nations – Irony: Almost every country that voted to give Obama/France & England cover to take out Ka Daffy, cited the support of the “Arab League.” It just so happens that the vast majority of the Arab League is itself oppressive dictators.  Oh well – we sacrifice one revolution – Bahrain,  to crush a more despotic regime in Libya.
  • ObamaHe shoots he scores: It took Cheney/Bush months of phony arguments and all they got was a now disintegrated “coalition of the willing” in Iraq. In a couple weeks Obama (Boy did the Clintons push for this) got a unanimous security council vote (10 voted yes & 5 abstained).  International credibility to attack Ka Daffy might even be a last second buzzer beater for the rebels.
  • Basketball – The most passionate US sporting tournament began yesterday. While you may call the above topics March Madness, the 68 college team tournament owns the rights to the real title – March Madness. (video)
  • LibyaJust in  - Ka Daffy says OMH and halts all hostility.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.39% down
NASDQ +0.73% down
S&P 500 +1.34% down
Russell 2000 +0.46% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Now, Libya & oil become another dominant factor. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points.

  • G7 intervention in Japan a short term positive for world markets. Stabilization better than chaos.
  • Visions of a kick ass  adrenaline rush war in Libya dance in traders minds today. But that can change to burning oil fields.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a HUGE  -0.93% yesterday. Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar broke short term support, but directly above a major support level. = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -54.76 Still close to -60  oversold level.=Neutral/Bullish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Obviously, we had an oversold MO at -88 and we had a rally. But there was a second factor to the rally and that was the HUGE drop in the dollar. Some of this has to do with the Japan situation. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) last night has intervened to prop up their currency as well as the G7. The BOJ is printing gobs of money and using quantitative easing.

We’ll probably see a roller coaster ride for the dollar.  The long term trend is down. This makes US goods cost less abroad and increases profit. Bad news here is you don’t want the dollar to fall to far too fast. It becomes as worthless as Zimbabwe’s currency. It’s also troubling that in a disaster (Japan & Arab revolutions) people do NOT buy the dollar as protection.

Longer Term – A potentially winnable war in Libya, Japan rebuilds without nuclear power, and Saudis plus other oil dictatorships asserting authoritarian power/stability. If only those reactors don’t radiate a big hunk of Japan we have the potential for bulls to run.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. – Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced

  • No positions held.

Longer Term - A low MO has for the last 3 years been an accurate the signal to buy. I’ve used this Positions Section as an aggressive ETF section for short term trades. Any long position below should outperform if we don’t hit leg two of a worldwide recession. Japan will be in recession. However, quantitative easing will pick up the slack in the USA (a QE #3) if the situation gets too bad. All this is one big inflationary bubble that bursts down the road, but for now its still bubblicious.

So I’m buyer today – probably UWM . See comments section for more.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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CONGRATULATIONS To Paul who just got a kudos from the HGSI Technical Analysis site

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new “YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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