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Starting tomorrow we are going to be going over YOUR choices for stocks . While Investors411 prefers ETF’s may of you are sophisticated traders/investors , so this should be interesting. Today in honor of the worldwide successful open of the Avatar movie ($73 million US box office plus $159 worldwide) let’s offer one of  YOUR choices IMAX – the 3D movie theater chain. (See stock section below)

Over the last week you have sent in 13 stocks – 7 have more than one vote. You have till tomorrow AM to add to list . You can send your choice(s) into the comments section of blog or preferably to my gmail address (see HOMEPAGE at top of blog)

Great Link to the top 15 all time movies according to Adjusted Gross IncomeWho is #1? LINK

Dysfunctional Government

Health Care Bill did break Senate Republican Filibuster last night. It passed the Senate

One of you sent in a personal email and wanted break up the health care bill into individual components and pass it that way . About 17 years ago under Hillary/Bill Clinton we tried for major health care reform. None of those major components have since passed congress. In fact, Congress grows increasingly dysfunctional and partisan each day .  The 60 vote filibuster in the Senate used to be used only in rare cases – example in the 60′s to block civil rights legislation. From today’s Paul Krugman NYT editorial LINK quoting political scientist Barbara Sinclare

  • 1960s filibuster’s used 8% of time on major legislation
  • 1980s filibuster used 27% of the time
  • Today Republicans have used Senate filibuster 70% of the time.
  • Republicans went so overboard that they held up Defense Department funding till the last minute to block health care.

Our legislators are more divided than ever. Why not? Polarizing politics is a cash cow for both parties(and so called pundents) who have gerrymandered districts so badly that there is no need for compromise. Our democrasy is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.

Show Us the Email

AIG was at one end of the domino chain of Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction (Warren Buffett’s term for Credit Default Swaps) and there is a treasure trove of emails that have not been made public in this company that is now owned 80% by YOU (the government)  Before the trail gets cold  these email should get exposed according to Eliot Spitzer and others who wrote an op-ed LINK

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.20% up
NASDQ +1.45% down
S&P500 +0.58% down
Russell2000- +1.05% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar finally leveled off and stocks rose . Volume did increase for all indexes and was above average (except for S&P 500) But Friday was what Wall Street called a “quadruple witching day” (3rd Friday of every month – where options expire) so you get an artificial spike in volume. Volume did NOT confirm the price move.

Some good reports out of RIMM & ORCL helped technology.

Shortened Christmas week.

(Last Week’s) – FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST Up to flat week . NASDQ was up and other 3 major indexes down. No significant move.

FEARLESS FORECAST – Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

IMAX Chart LINK - Stupid, Stupid, Stupid – You know a movie is going to promote a new technology (3D) and do good to great – This stock ran up 20+% this month before the open of the Avatar movie.  The 3D movie chain’s stock is now over extended now. Like our investment in AMZN & NVS (swine flu) IMAX was a buy the rumor sell the news stock. It went down Friday. Worth watching – a potential buy the dip. Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” is the next big 3D flick.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade& China) . -118 Friday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart)

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.03% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.75 . Technically we’ve broken through the 50 day moving average and TWO significant resistance levels = Very Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +7.10 This is NEUTRAL Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Positions section of blog was updated over weekend.  44+% Invested in stocks -

  • FXI (China) 18% (selling 6% into any rally – 24- 6=18% – see Friday’s update)
  • EWZ (Brazil 16%)
  • MOO (agriculture (10)%

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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