3 days before the election

Although in all the compilation of tracking polls Obama is leading by 6% and Obama actually improved slightly in the last 2 days you are going to see this lead vanish by election day.

The reasons for this is the fact hat McCain is playing hardball and Obama is not. No matter what anyone says negative campaigning works! People vote more with emotions than logic. Being dogmatic works. McCain/Palin dogmatism works. Emotions rather than logic bring people to the polls.

No matter how false – labeling Obama as a "socialist," "associates with terrorists" is an emotional response and all Obama is doing is playing defense. This generates a huge turnout in the right wing base. Comments like the one from the senator in Georgia "their bringing carloads of blacks to the polls" works. Palin even though she is totally unqualified for the job brings out the base because she is a charismatic right wing zealot.

Deja Vu all over again – Yogi Berra

Emotion and fear trumps logic and reason The Obama campaign/Democrats do not understand this. This is exactly how Bush won and the mold is not broken. Kerry ignored the impact of the Swift Boat crowd and it cost them. The exact same thing is happening now.

Obama has failed to use his biggest weapon the McCain/Keating scandal (see past Updates) and all the lobbyist surround McCain. He has failed to tie McCain to his votes causing the Credit Default Swaps market. He needed to put McCain on the defense. With the mud McCain is throwing-some of it is going to stick no matter how outrageous.

The 30 minute infomercial was a waste of time and money which should have been spent on negative adds.

Being dogmatic works in an elections and Obama got to show he can sling the mud , or a better term a fight. Taking the high road does NOT win elections.

Forget lots of these other states – defend PA which is rapidly slipping and choose one or two of the big 3 or 4 toss up states NC FD OH VA to focus on. It’s all about the electoral map and the large number of Hispanic voters that are going for Obama looks like it will make a difference in the West. NV NM and CO (these #s are actually improving for Obama), but all the other states outside the far west the lead is falling. 10 to 12 point leads in VA and PA has already been cut in 1/2 and a 6+ % lead in Ohio will change because McCain has spent the last two days there.

What Obama needs to do is map out a course that gets him 1 more electoral vote than McCain and a backup plan. Devote all you $ to that strategy in the last 3 days and go negative in your adds.

To understand tracking polls the you have to realize they are taken over the course of a few days and when the lead changes direction it is usually happens on the last day or two. There is a major shift going on in VA, PA, OH and other battle ground states to McCain. This is going show up in the national polls today and get worse.

What Obama supposedly has is a huge ground game. This will get matched by McCain’s closing momentum. So this race is now too close to call.


PS – I’ve got three decades of experience running political campaigns and if your an Obama supporter I’d be out there working for my candidate today.

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