Iran Day 11


Iranian protestors – Photo from Andrw Sullivan blog

Neda Agha-Soltan has become the hero of the Iranian revolution from American media (LA Times here ) to Arab media here In fact al Jazeera has a whole section devoted to "Iran in Crisis" here Al Jazeera is an outlet for mostly Arab Sunni’s and Iran is Persian Shia’s. No love lost between these two groups. You heard and saw Neda’s story at Investors 411 3 days ago.

More of the same in Iran. Less on street demonstrators and more violence. Previously listed best  sources are still telling the story to the world. Some predictions from BBC – What’s next for Iran here

One issue that many on the far left are not going to like to hear. Israe l has certainly made mistakes in its two recent wars with Iran and her proxies (Hamas & Hezbollah). But seeing how the Iran’s "Supreme Leader" treats his own people you can see how hard it is to make some peace with him or his clients. Of course, the first the recognize and lavishly praise Ahmadinejad’s & "Supreme Leader’s" victory was Hamas (here) and Hezbollah (here )

Barack "Hoover" Obama?

Herbert Hoover

Yesterday Abby posted an article by Kevin Baker on Obama from Harper’s magazine. Unfortunately you have to be a subscriber to reference the article. You can view some excerpts here The focus is that Obama has not and may not be able to change the strong intrenched interest that created the economic mess we are now in. President Hoover (his picture above) did nothing and the Great Depression grew.

Context We tore down the regulations on "free" markets and developed a massive credit debt over the last decade that has exploded. Yes, Paulson, Bernanke (more the previous Fed chair Greenspan) and Bush were leaders in creating this mess, but late last year when we stood on the edge of economic catastrophe they (PB & B) instituted a plan and prevented world economies from falling off a cliff. Bernanke, Geithner & Obama have followed through and added to that plan

Remember Lehman Brothers cause over $400+ billion dollars of debt to spread throughout the world when it went bankrupt. People were lined up in panic at insurance companies and banks. What if AIG, CitiBank, Merrill Lynch Fannie, Freddie. AIG and so many others had followed Lehman. The end result would have rippled through out the system and economic catastrophe would have been the result.

How Obama handles the economy is priority #1. Because it is the world’s economy and he is easily the most important/influencial figure. Unlike Hoover whose inaction significantly added to the Great Depression Obama has acted. But its those entrench interests that have dug in. Time will tell.



Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -2.35% down
NASDQ -3.35 % down
S&P500 -3.06% down
Russell2000 -3.88 % -


Technicals & Fundamentals

US markets took a major hit on a bad economic forecast from the World Bank.

The volume was again below average. It hard to be sure about making a forecast when our #1 forecasting tool – volume – gives no indication of which way prices will flow.

Major event – Fed Meets today and issues statement on Wednesday

Yesterday’s major event was The World’s Bank lowered its outlook for the world’s economy this year from -1.7% to -2.9% This is some truly bad new s for long term investors.

Since volume is out as a forecasting tool right now, today’s price move will act as a confirmation of yesterday’s move. Do we fall further (bearish) or rebound (bullish)?

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

Note - Repeated statements in brown

Right now, there are two indexes that are significantly influencing stocks in the USA & world. The US dollar in the short term and the BDI in the longer term

$USD The dollar is the index to watch. Dollar went up +0.57% yesterday. Any move over 0.50 is significant.  It looks like the dollar may be establishing a short term bullish pattern (see chart)  of higher highs and higher lows. Still to early to tell.

All together now -  our mantra – when the dollar goes up stocks go down . This strong inverse correlation has existed for many moons.

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade). 24 up days in a row, 6 down day in a row,  a 6 day rally and the BDI fell minimally on Friday and significantly yesterday. This is a very important chart that has just rolled over. It usually moves in one direction for an extended period of time.  If it moves past and creates a lower low than it had eight days ago it would be a serious sign of trouble Right now, the momentum is with the bears.

If trade is diminishing through out the world then a worldwide recovery is in big trouble.

You can play with the chart and create different settings to get a better idea of what’s happening, (the same with all other links to different charts)

Reading the Tea Leaves

Still think this market has moved too high to fast and is a technical rebound. As stated two weeks ago we may see a 5 to 10% technical fall or consolidation. This week fearless forecast – Another down to flat week. The benchmark S%P 500 has already broken through support and fallen 6 to 7% from its high to  893. Next significant support level is 875 to 880. As stated above volume is NOT confirming (or has yet to confirm) the downside move. So far this still is a technical correction of a market that went too high too fast.

Both the dollar and the BDI have started to trend in the wrong direction (If you’re a bull on stocks) Add the World’s Bank prediction and you have lots of reason to hear the bear’s growl.

Got burned with this the last time I did this, but buying a little protection on any minor rally. Adding small position in SDS (ETF that does 2X the opposite of the S&P 500)

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog


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