What’s UP? - Battle for the soul of the Shia branch of Islam continues in Iran between forces that back the militants and those that back change. Going Green like leading blog in support of the millions of protestors for greater freedom in IranReactions from outside self centered USA media – Battling Mullahs-  The dollar rises = stocks fall – major meltdown – why- and more

Battling Mullah’s

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Protester standing for freedom in Iran

from http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/

Following the battle for the soul or future of the Shia branch of Islam is critical to our future.

The militant faction is the #1 backers of  Hezbollah, Hamas and others taking a more violent approach. al Quaeda and others radicals are Sunni’s not Shia.  Therefore, Arab Sunni news outlets like al Jazeera are reporting on the violent Persian Shia revolution in Iran. No love lost between Shia and Sunni’s.

The Asian Times is the #1 English news outlet in Asia. Pepe Escobar is arguably their most outstanding reporter.  The American media imprints our values on their reporting. If you want the REAL story that of the battle between religious mullahs in Iran see this LINK Escobar – “This is no less than “1979 all over again.” Those of you who are too young to remember the 1979 Iranian revolution should definitely read this editorial.

The biggest danger we pose to those who are dying and demonstrating for freedom is to over react. Already Ahmadinejad and state controlled TV is fear mongering FOX TV video quotes and claiming that the protestors are tools of the Americans. I’m sure FOX news means well, but they and anyone who gives Ahmadinejad an excuse to fear monger the freedom fighters as tools of  outsiders is hurting the cause.

Obama has said that “the whole world is watching” The real battle is between the mullahs. There is a huge split that has torn the Shia branch of Islam in two.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -2.13% flat
NASDQ -2.28 % up
S&P500 -2.38% down
Russell2000 -2.58 % -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Yesterday’s lead statement – Breakout is not an accurate description of what’s happened to the market.  We have “INCHED FORWARD”  There is no real conviction in the volume behind the move higher. Yes markets have remained above “breakout levels” for about a week, but it seems like a very hesitant bunch of investors waiting for a massive counter attack.

The “attack” came. US and most world markets fell over 2%. However the attack was NOT massive. Volume was well below average. Volume did NOT confirm the fall. This is a strong indication that the meltdown was technical – Markets had rallied too far too fast and some sort of technical correction is happening. This also does not mean stocks will move lower, but the fundamental events are probably not behind yesterday’s fall.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

$USD - Repeated statements in brown The dollar is the index to watch You could write a book on the dollars influence on everything but for us the bottom line right now is – When the dollar goes down -stocks and oil prices go up and visa versa. Dollar rallied significantly again +0.97% on Friday & +1.18% on Monday. The dollar broke to higher through a resistance level (see chart).  Investors 411 mantra is Dollar rallies = Oil & Stock prices fall

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) have been stuck in consolidation for over 3 weeks. -2.56% in increased but weak volume Friday

WTICOil prices down -1.98% yesterday

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade). This is extremely important because one of the greatest obstacles to a worldwide recovery is the lack of trade between countries (protectionism) 24 up days in a row, 6 down day in a row, & now a 3 day rally. Bullish sign.

Reading the Tea Leaves

Yesterday’s lead statement t - Expect a tired low volume market to retreat this week .

The rising dollar is fundamentally the most important influence on stocks. The dollar falls because we are just printing money/paper at a rapid rate so the dollar becomes less valuable. However we are a relatively stable country and perhaps the Green Revolution in Iran reminds investors that even though we are rolling out money like toilet paper to fix our economic mistakes, we are a relatively stable country to invest in.

The above is an oversimplification – Obviously there is a lot more going on that moves the dollar. Bottom Line – The dollar has a heavy counter influence on the movement of stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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