The Mighty Casey Strikes Out

The beloved Boston Red Sox were eliminated from the playoffs . I’m going into a cocoon till spring training.

“Deja Vu all over Again”

Yogi Berra’s famous phrase is applicable to our financial situation.

It’s been just over a year since the shadow banks brought the world to its knees and we almost fell over the brink. We had the socialist or communist bailout – you the taxpayers. Nothing has been done to really fix the problems that existed. The dominance of the financial sector continues over politicians and the media continues. Our growth is being measured just like it was before.

This screams for any investor to keep a watchful eye on your investments. If we keep allowing GREED and self interest to run financials the next meltdown is going to be bigger than the last.

Afghanistan

Our #1 & #2 priorities should be Pakistan and Iran . If anything terrorist taking over part of what is equivalent to the Pentagon in Pakistan is very significant. LINK In Newsweek magazine Joe Biden comments that we spend 1/30 the money on Afghanistan than we do nuclear armed Pakistan. No matter how much of a war monger or peace nick you are simply recognizing the greater threat is critical. In fact it looks like any meaningful change has been at best marginalized.

Nobel Prize

Kudos to Obama on winning the Nobel Peace Prize. It sure helped that he wasn’t Bush. Will we continue to spend trillions on wars? Perhaps the Nobel committee is trying to nudge Obama to more peaceful of negotiated methods of solving problems.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.80% down
NASDQ +0.72% down
S&P500 +0.56% down
Russell2000 +1.18% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Basically the US markets have been up 5 days in a row and are close to reaching new yearly highs. Volume dropped Friday, so technically  its hard to see a breakout behind such weak volume figures.

Fundamentally, earnings season begins this week and next week they flood in.

The dollar is still the key to worldwide recovery.

For Jim Cramer fans here’s a critic for investment advisers Nick Kapur of  Motley Fool . LINK You should always take entertainers and the politically and self interest  driven comments coming out of CNBC with a grain block of salt with a grain of salt. Like everyone Cramer has his share of horrendous calls (“be out of the markets for the next 5 years”) and good calls. Remember their advertisers make $ every time you “buy buy buy” and “sell sell sell.”

The BDI has turned positive. = Bullish for stocks

Fearless forecast for week – The dollar has ruled. Basically the lower dollar has given US companies a chance for better profits. So last earnings quarter and future forecasts (providing dollar keeps falling & it looks like it will) should be better than expected. Technically we are approaching new highs is WEAK volume . Technicals, are telling us the resistance levels (old highs) will hold.

Markets rose even though the dollar was up significantly Friday (see below) . This is bullish The lack of Volume is giving us a Bearish signal . The BDI has turned Bullish -

Bottom Line – Mixed signals with a bullish tint. How markets react to news looks like it will drive stocks this week. So far reactions to Alcoa and other early earnings reports has been good.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 46% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI nine day rally continued. It rose a +46 points yesterday and closed at 2695 .   We seem to have started to reversed the longer term June move.  Resistance level of 2491 (last months high) first major hurdle to cross – We’ve broken out over these levels and technically created a higher high. -  Bullish for stocks .

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

The dollar reached a new yearly low (barely) last week and rebounded big time Friday +0.60% The dollar closed at 76.43. We have developed a support level just below $76.

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Our positions in gold GLD and Brazil EWZ are clearly out preforming US markets and our China position. The later two are approaching new highs. Would buy more of GLD & EWZ on dips.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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