Climate/Energy, Cap and Trade, or Waxman-Markey Bill

women gas masks photo

photo from Treehugger /flickr

Tom Friedman here weighs in on the climate/energy bill that goes under the  many different names used in the above title

It’s easy to agree with Friedman who thinks that the Republican Party is becoming the party of “sex scandals and polluters.” Earlier this week Investors411 went over two significant reasons to back this bill – It fights global warming and reduces pollution.

Another fact on pollution smog increases the chance of premature births by 128% here

Here’s reasons 3 and 4

Changes Mindset and Produces Jobs .

Friedman-”if this bill passes. Henceforth, every investment decision made in America — about how homes are built, products manufactured or electricity generated — will look for the least-cost low-carbon option. And weaving carbon emissions into every business decision will drive innovation and deployment of clean technologies to a whole new level and make energy efficiency much more affordable.”

What all this innovation means is new industries and jobs, jobs, jobs.

Stops Groveling to Petroleum Dictators

This is one significant step toward alternative energy and away from dependency on oil. The USA has reached peak oil decades ago and our domestic oil production is more than 1/2 of what it used to be link here The era of cheap oil  is over. New technology will squeeze oil out of shale and dig miles beneath the ocean to make up some of the loss but this gets very very expensive.

Oil production is dominated by a cartel and dictators whose butts we have to kiss to get the supply.  Look how cautious the world is on condemning “Supreme Leader” & Iran because they have oil. We spend trillions on the military to fight oil wars and ensure oil supplies. Why not encourage alternative energy instead? It would save lives, save future trillions in military wars, promote democracy and lead us toward energy independence.

Bottom Line – Reality is this Bill is a small step and watered down. But we have to take the first step now

Iraq

Most recent polling data on Iraq withdrawal here

  • 73% favor withdrawal 26% opposed
  • 52% violence will increase, 32% violence stay the same, 15% decrease
  • Almost 66% believe we should NOT go back if violence increases.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.97% up
NASDQ -0.49 % up
S&P500 -0.85% up
Russell2000 -0.46% -

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Technicals and Fundamentals

Volume was still well below average. Up slightly for NASDQ & Dow, but moderately for S&P 500. Volume is still giving no clear sign of market direction.

How markets react to news is another significant forecasting tool. Yesterday consumer confidence numbers for last month came in more negative than expected and that according to most sent stocks down. Reacting negatively to bad news is a bearish sign

Of course this could get balanced by the markets reacting positively to good news. This would = a neutral market.

All this makes Thursday’s (I stated Friday earlier this week-number of different sources making conflicting statements – ) monthly unemployment numbers the major fundamental catalyst for the week.

Technically the consolidation pattern continues.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI up for second day in a row. Long term Bullish although consolidating right now.

$USD - The Dollar rose +0.39% . The strong inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks has existed for many moons. Market. Dollar up= markets down. We are in a month long consolidating pattern after a multi month fall Long term Bullish pattern that is consolidating (neutral)

This correlation pattern could break down in the future, because oil is bought in dollars and oil also goes up as dollar goes down.  Higher oil prices are a danger to fragile economic recovery

VIX Measures Volatility in S&P 500.   The less volatility means the better investors are feeling. Yesterday the VIX rose 3.94% yesterday. This is a moderate move higher.   Longer term 4 month trend down and we are near Sept. 08 lows. Bullish long term trend for stocks

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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