$ Health Costs to Rise Again$

Yet another major survey showing health care cost will rise again for you next year. Link to Kaiser Foundation study in WaPo – Here

  • prices increased 130% over last 10 years
  • next year 41% of businesses said they will increase percentage workers pay for heath care premiums.
  • 8% will drop health care entirely
  • 9% will tighten eligibility for health care
  • From Mercer consulting - 2/3 of employers plan to raise what workers pay for heath care next year.

Major business lobby (Business Roundtable ) states – if current trends continue, annual health-care costs for employers will rise 166 % over the next decade — to $28,530 per employee-

If you’re a business big enough to be listed on any stock exchange where are you going to go for a sophisticated labor force – Will you go to a country that will charge $28,530 more for an employee? Wonder why jobs will lag the recovery in the USA. This is one huge reason why.

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Bill out of Senate on health care possible today, then everything goes into committee. – Max Baucus the, the Democratic Senator that is heading up the Health Care reform has received $3 million from the insurance companies fighting health care reform. Story LINK.

91% of Baucus’s campaign contributions come from outside Montana. (Wikipedia)

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.59% up
NASDQ +0.52% up
S&P500 +0.31% up
Russell2000 +0.80% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Technically, both the NASDQ & the S&P rallied in increased above average volume = Bullish sign

The volume is still nothing like the volume we saw in the first 1/2 of 2008.

Fearless forecast for this week - Down early, as dollar stabilizes and fears of regulation (see below/above). But, rallies are getting bought into. So prediction is for another positive week. Repeat – this current rally is based on the dollar falling – Best read of tea leaves is for the oversold dollar to rally for at least a day or two.

Outside of a major event, like Israel bombing Iran, the Fed raises interest rates it looks like stocks will continue to rally into the end of the year.

Some old money is beginning to come back into US markets. Best example of this is GE , the mother of all conglomerates is up 10%+ in huge volume over the last two days. GE is the kind of investment more conservative investors or those on the sidelines like to hold for the long term. Not recommending this as an individual play right now, because it looks a lot like climax selling (going up too far too fast in huge volume) and would wait for a pull back.

Bernanke“From a technical perspective the recession is very likely over.” – but a slow recovery including jobs.

Obama – Gave a speech on how far we had come since he took office Market zizzles, job loss down from 700k to 200k, and we are no longer loking over edge of economic cliff.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The BDI has leveled off and started to rise over the last few weeks. BDI fell a minor -19 yesterday. They are small losses,but the index has fallen 3 days in a row. BDI trading at 2431 and has recently formed a resistance level at 2388. Would not trust any rally, especially in foreign exporting countries if the BDI breaks down below this number.

Each day this still looks more like a base has been formed above a key support level Longer flat bottoms and slowly moving higher/lower is usually indication of, at least, a short term bottom-Bullish short term outlook for BDI and we have certainly recovered from the devastating lows of Dec./Jan. 2388 is number to watch We are getting mighty close to support levels . Another down day is reason for caution.

The BDI is 41% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost +170% from early April to Jun e

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

The dollar has fallen 7 days in a row.  It dropped  -0.18% yesterday. Dollar trading at $76.41. Rate of fall has slowed dramatically and it looks like at least a short term reversal is likely. The last two days have seen rallies in the dollar crushed. There is a support level around $76 (lows from Sept & Aug. of last year)

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog).

Added another 5% to portfolio of  SPX (at 1038) Added another 5% of SPX at 1045 yesterday

GLD (gold ) – Investors411 already has a 5% position in GLD. A sh0rter term play. Added another 5% yesterday at $97.5 .

Reasons – This is gold’s third attempt at breaking out over $100 – its major resistance level.  Technically, there is strong volume behind this move and the end of the year has historically been strong both technically and fundamentally for gold (lots of religions have holidays and gold given for gifts) This time gold is getting an added push at resistance because  of the falling dollar & countries printing gobs of money (future inflation). Looks like gold will shine.

Plus if GLD can break above $100.44 (Its resistance level or all time high) a lot of people who bet against this happening will be forced to cover their short bets.

Will be adding more positions on dips – Unfortunately the dips are very small. Like both EWZ (Brazil) & FXI (China) & EWY (S. Korea)


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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