Obama’s Back

AP photo by Jason Reed

Last night American’s saw the Obama they saw during the campaign as he took leadership of the heath care debate. CNN saw a 14% rise in acceptance of the “Obama plan” from those who watched the address to congress. LINK . 67% supported “Obama’s plan” and 29% opposed him.

One Republican congressman, who later apologized, shouted out that he was a liar. Be prepared for a lot more shouting, false accusations, and disruptions from the party of NO. When you don’t have the facts on your side trying to shout down, and making repeated accusations prevents rational debate. Unfortunately it does work because American corporate media focuses on that instead of the facts and reasoned debate. Obama this time was armed with eloquence and details (substance)LINK

Video, written parts of speech LINK

If health care costs keep growing (doubling every 7 to 10 years – depends on whose stats you use) individuals, medicare recipients and small businesses will be devastated .

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.53% up
NASDQ +1.11% flat
S&P500 +0.69% down
Russell2000 +1.74% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

NASDQ (think mostly tech stocks) Had and increased, above average volume breakout to a new yearly high. – Bullish sign

Up four trading days in a row for major indexes – we’re getting a bit oversold.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The BDI has leveled off and started to rise over the last two weeks, +29 yesterday.

Each day this looks more like a base has been formed above a key support level Longer flat bottoms and slowly moving higher is usually indication of, at least, a short term bottom-Bullish short term outlook for BDI and we have certainly recovered from the devastating lows of Dec./Jan.

The BDI is 41% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost +170% from early April to Jun e

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

The dollar dropped of the table and through its major support level two days ago It fell -0,28% yesterday. This added drop is confirmation of the technical breakdown the day before. Dollar closed at $77.04. Its  major support level is @$77.5 . After 11 days of consecutively being up one day and down the next, the dollar has fallen 3 days in a row. Short term Bullish for most stocks

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Bottom Line – Both the BDI & the Dollar are forecasting at least a short term rally. Key to look for is can the dollar get back over its $77.5 support level?


Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

Have to update positions section (away all weekend) Investors411 problem is that we are under invested in equities. The predicted 5 to 10% correction this month almost happened last week (-4+%), but close doesn’t count. Investors411 sold 6% of portfolio which was invested in FXI (China) for a 55% profit.  FXI still 12% of portfolio is in China and will increase this at first minor dip.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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