Mid Year Review of Stock Positions

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Iran Day 13


Iran Photo from Andrew Sullivan Blog

Violence continues. See previously recommended sources – Lede from NYT, Huffington Post, Andrew Sullivan & BBC for more. At 9:13 EST Nico Pitne y at Huffington Post has a video of the Supreme Leaders military firing on demonstrators here

What can you do to help the protesting Iranians? Tom Friedman has an interesting long term approach. Iran’s Green Revolution = America’s Green Revolution. you can read about it here

Obama Debate Rages on

The are you happy with Obama ? debate continues to rage in the comments section. More fireworks See posts by  "A Friend" and D.

Health Care

Going to spend a lot more time on this . Two important points for now .

  • From D’s comments post - "if a private option is so bad why have none of the dozens of counties that have public heath care voted to change back to private health care?"
  • Time magazine’s Michael Grunwald has an excellent article on Health Care costs here Why some major hospitals and areas charge less than others for comparable services. Example Mayo Clinic & Cleveland Clinic @40% less than UCLA Med Center and John Hopkins.



Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.28% down
NASDQ +1.55 % flat
S&P500 +0.65% down
Russell2000 +1.06 % -


Technicals & Fundamentals

The volume was again below average. It hard to be sure about making a forecast when our #1 forecasting tool - volume – gives no indication of which way prices will flow .

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

Note - Repeated statements in brown

Right now, there are two indexes that are significantly influencing stocks in the USA & world. The US dollar in the short term and the BDI in the longer term

$USD – The Dollar rose +o.73% yesterday. Any move over 0.50 is significant. The strong inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks has existed for many moons. In the short term we are seeing some breakdown in the strong inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks. The best explanation for this is that the dollar is trading within a range and when it breaks out of that range (78+ to 81+ see yearly chart here ) this inverse correlation will again become  more apparent.

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade). 24 up days in a row, 6 down day in a row,  a 6 day rally and now a 4 day fall. Technically we failed to make a higher high and if/when we make a lower low it will be technically a very bearish sign .  Momentum is building to the downside.

If trade is diminishing through out the world then a worldwide recovery is in big trouble.

Reading the Tea Leaves

This market has moved too high to fast and is a technical rebound. As stated two weeks ago we may see a 5 to 10% technical fall or consolidation. This week fearless forecast – Another down to flat week. Look for the areas around 875 and 850 on the benchmark S&P 500 as support levels.  So far because of the lack of heavy volume this looks like an over bought correction and not a total meltdown that tests the old lows.

Investors411 has recommended buying some downside protection on any minor rally. A 5%+ position in -SDS – An ETF that is ultra short’s the S&P 500 -  Bought yesterday at @$57. This is probably not going to be a position that will be held for a long time.

Caution – The last time I was worried about a drop (Swine flu) I bought FXP (ultra short China) and got burned

Mid Year Review of Our Positions

Part #1-Part 2 tomorrow

I’ve rounded off some of the numbers and the first number is the % of the entire portfolio invested. You can learn more by going to "Positions" section on top of blog. Some position in the same ETF were added at different times, so they have different results.

All numbers are approximate All position are year to date or from when they were bought this year (This does not include some short term day or swing trades – If your interested in this send me a separate email)

Our benchmark S&P 500 is flat for the year

FXI -(China)

  • 8% of portfolio, up 24% position open
  • 8% of portfolio, up 37% position open
  • 8% of portfolio, up 20% position open

FXP – (Ultra Short China)

  • 5% of portfolio down 13% position closed

EWZ (Brazil)

  • 6% of portfolio, up 26% position closed

GLD (Gold)

  • 3% of portfolio up 13% position closed.
  • 3% of portfolio down 4% position open
  • 3% of portfolio up 9% position open

QLD (Ultra long NASDQ 100)

  • 6% of portfolio up 16% position closed

XLF (Financials Stocks)

  • 5% of portfolio up 23% position closed

IFN (India)

  • 3% of portfolio up 1% position open

GEX (alternative energy)

  • 3% of portfolio up 10% position closed
  • 3% of portfolio up 3% position open

The Hedge (Equal amounts of QLD – ultra long NASDQ 100 & SDS ultra short S&P 500)

  • 15% of portfolio up 1% position open


  • 5% of portfolio up 1% position open

Analysis tomorrow – But obviously Investors411, as in past years, toasted of our benchmark S&P 500

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog


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