Obama at Ft Hood

FTHOODJoeRaedle:Getty

Photo from The Atlantic

On the eve of Veteran’s day Obama gave perhaps his most remarkable speech ever eulogizing those who died at Ft. Hood. You may disagree with his views, strategy or outlook , but the commander in chief’s address to a grieving nation and families of the fallen soldiers really resonates. LINK to video

Anything else seems trivial to write about on Veteran’s day.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.20% down
NASDQ -0.14% flat
S&P500 -0.01% down
Russell2000 -0.91%
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Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dollar fell an anemic -o.o3% so US equities went nowhere in anemic volume.

Besides the Dollar siting directly above a major technical support level, 3 of the 4  major US indexes are right below major resistance areas and even oil is at a key $80 resistance level.  Across the board there is technically strong support for the rally stalling.

The BDI (measures trading costs – see below) is on fire (very bullish) Prices to ship commodities are growing. If you see a breakout in stocks it could come from this area. A second possibility is financials (shadow banks) that have dropped recently.

If US stocks were overbought ( see McClellan indicator below)  would be selling  some of position in EWZ and FXI now) Right now we are just  slightly overbought. There’s room for a rally and the dollar is falling too fast. Short term-Momentum with BULLS

Still holding to this week’s original forecast that ” we hang on (stock prices go flat) for a while but dollar falls and stocks rise.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 16% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a VERY significant +135 points yesterday and closed at 3615. We look to be starting another major move higher. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied about 1500 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now. Especially good for our positions in FXI & EWZ

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar was basically flat -0.03% yesterday. The dollar closed at $75.04 .  This is directly above its, line in the sand, support level. As predicted yesterday – Usually a major support level at least temporarily halts any fall.”

From last week – The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at $75.04 this AM . The support level is a t @$75.00 Both are important lines in the sand. A breakout on either side will move US equities in the other direction and the world will follow.

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McCellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

Key to chart – 0 is roughly  neutral and when you get to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching -60 you are oversold. Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Sorry have not had a chance to update Positions section in over a week

Investors

FXI – China – (now 25% of portfolio) At new high – up over 50+% this year

EWZ- Brazil (now 20% of portfolio) At new high – up over 100+% this yea r

GLD (now 11% of portfolio) At new high – up over 20+% this year

Comments – NOT the time to buy or add to these positions.  Enjoy the rally.

Going to add Indonesia & Vietnam ETF’s – but waiting for dips. Also going to add DGP (this ETF does about 2x what the GLD does) – More explanation later. As a trade like GS

Traders (short term plays) These are not ETFs, but individual stocks

Extra Note of Caution here Even though I always warn you AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! please note I’m far less confident in individual stock picks

NVS – (5% of portfolio)  We’ve already sold 1/2 of this for +12% gain  Now up 16+% since bought

CSCO – (5% of portfolio) Flat since we bought position a few weeks ago . – Going nowhere while markets have moved higher.  Selling soon for @ -2% loss – Hopefully into a rally.

AMZN – (now 5% of portfolio  ) Bought last Wednesday – Sold 1/2 yesterday for 11% gain . Like NVS letting the rest ride.

Long Term Outlook – The dollar looks like it may break down through major support and the benchmark S&P 500 is on the verge of a yearly high – Outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH if/when this happens.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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