Obama at West Point

West Point

Most Eloquent Speech vs Horribly Flawed Strategy.

  • The  center of terrorism is NOT Afghanistan, but anywhere there is an apartment, cave, pick up truck with a committed individual – A fanatic with a gun/explosive, cell phone,computer and money. Examples – Fort Hood, Oklahoma City, & Pakistan
  • The generals who dictated this strategy are extremely happy. McChrystal “The Afghanistan-Pakistan review led by the President has provided me with a clear military mission and the resources to accomplish our task.” LINK
  • Vintage Bush fear mongering of WMD’s at end of Obama speech on the nuclear weapons in Pakistan. Yes, difference is these are real WMD’s in Pakistan, but is the Obama/McChrystal strategy the answer. Dawn is the largest English speaking daily in Pakistan (relatively pro USA) Here’s what their readers say LINK
  • Top 10 reasons Obama plan could fail by mid east expert Professor Juan ColeLINK
  • Rationale for the 3rd surge in Afghanistan is based on unrealistic concept of success of surge and success in Iraq. (see past updates – more later) What’s needed here is a standard business cost/benefit analysis
  • We took out the Taliban in 7 weeks with a few thousand (guesstimate) American boots on the ground in 2001. Why is the situation so much more dire now? (see above on Iraq for partial answer)

Larry Wilkerson , former chief of staff to Sec. of State General Powell has the best summation in his Damed if you do Damed if you don’t editorial LINK

“If you are a praying person, he {Obama} needs your prayers and support. If you are not, he needs your support. Because all of us Americans put him where he is–and I do not mean by votes.

We–all of us–let George W. Bush and Richard B. Cheney set us up. Moreover, we all contributed to creating the perilous fiscal state that is now a more dangerous threat to our country than any terrorist could ever hope to be”


Keep It Simple Stupid


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.23% up
NASDQ +01.46% up
S&P500 +1.12% up
Russell2000 +1.63% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Volume was up a wee bit and the NASDQ actually hit average volume (50 day Moving Average).  So volume really did NOT confirm the price move. But volume is NO longer the #1 confirmation or forecasting factor of a price move - The Dollar is. – It fell over -0.50% and, therefore, stocks had a significant price rally Significant = basically +/-  1.00% for major indexes)

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK


Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI fell -61 points yesterday and closed at 3836. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1700 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, now, 9 down days in a row & down through the former resistance/now support level 0f 4291 . Rate of decline seems to be slowing .

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. Recent price drop-Nothing to panic about yet


The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar fell a significant -0.53% yesterday . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant  The dollar closed at $74.41


$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +13.70 This is a slightly Overbought Position . This chart is showing we seemed to have reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month,. Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal


The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Best recommendation It’s time to buy some protection. Iran , lost a 25 to 3 vote in the UN regarding their desire to achieve nuclear weapons or nuclear power (if you trust Ahmadinejad believe the later) The chances Israel or the USA will attack is growing. Obama committing more troops to Afghanistan further surrounds Iran. The price of oil will skyrocket if therethere is an attack.

Some other terrorist event may occur over oil.

So, on dips, buy the commodity oil. I have to check this out further, but the appropriate commodity (not company based) ETF’s seem to be USO & OLO (OLO does 2x what oil does) The later is very thinly traded. Going to work up to 10% of portfolio.

Your comments (Monitor) – Be happy with 22% position in GLD . Activision – Good story behind this game producers – each time they produce a better sequel to a hit game their revenues grow. Might wait till ACTI breaks out of consolidation trend and/or market gets oversold. MOO – need more time, but will get to more analysis.

Bought back DGP at 31.70


See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog


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