Teddy

VictoriaKennedyGetty

Vicki Kennedy/Teddy’s Wife – photo Chris Hondros/Getty

Teddy Kennedy was once told he was the most effective legislator since Daniel Webster . He deadpanned in reply – "what did Webster do." You can view Obama’s eulogy of Kennedy "The Lion of the Senate" HERE You can read it HERE

Kennedy was such an effective legislator, his funeral this weekend rivaled that that of former Presidents or unfortunately Michael Jackson.

One of his adult sons told a story that was personal and for me exemplifies the hopes for all America. See full eulogy HERE

About 4 minutes into this eulogy he tells the following story.

When this son (Teddy Jr.) was 12 he lost his leg to cancer and a few month later there was a heavy snow storm and they went sledding. As he started to walk  his artificial leg gave way on the ice. He fell and started to cry, claiming he would never be able to make it up or down the hill. Teddy took him in his arms and said that they would make it together even if it took all day. They did. – The lesson he learned was even our most profound losses are survivable. That we can transform those horrible events into something positive.

His son ends his eulogy with the same words Teddy used at the funeral of  Robert Kennedy

"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die "

US Profits from Repayment of Big Bank Loans

Is the TARP program working? Seems the NYT is headlining the story the  8 biggest banks have started to or repaid their government loans (TARP program) and we the taxpayers have made a $4 billion dollar profit. LINK

If you combine this with the almost unbelievable stock price run the most trouble financials have had over the last two weeks (AIG, B of A, C, Fannie and Freddie) you have to get the feeling Wall Street believes that the whole bailout program is working.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.38% up
NASDQ +0.05% up
S&P500 -0.20% up
Russell2000 -0.67% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

It seems that almost all Technical analysts (from watching the financial channel and most sources I look at) expect some sort of correction – 5 to 10% if you’re bullish to the sky is falling if you’re an ultra bear. If you look at a chart of the major indexes over the last 4 trading days they have all opened and closed at almost the exact same amount. This is called "churning" and usually indicates a reversal in direction.

Therefore, FEARLESS FORECAST – is for a down week . The problem with this forecast is that it is too obvious.

The dollar, right now seems to be key factor in which direction markets move. The rise in the dollar countered some good news in stocks, especially for tech stocks . Intel increased its earnings forecast and Dell had a better than expected earnings report.

Jobless claims, although a lagging indicator, has become very important to short term stock prices. The report for August comes out Friday . Basically what’s expected is a job loss of the same as last month and the unemployment figure to rise from 9.4% to 9.6%.

WSJ is carrying a story about default in business real estate mortgages . LINK The graph is ominous, but the last two months have shown a drop. The default rate is at 3.14% which means 96.86% are not defaulting and the vacancy rate is not as high as it was in 2003. This may turn into a crisis, but right now the short turn momentum is in the opposite direction.

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S ignificant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern .  The BDI fell -04 yesterday. For right now it looks like the major technical support level is holding. Unfortunately, we have created a lower low that confirms both the mid term trend . The mid term trend since early July is clearly bearish, with a series of lower lows and lower highs. @ 2298 is a major area of support and the BDI has fallen since early June from 4291 to 2427.  This is just 129 points away from a major support level.

Technically, A flattening of the BDI is to be expected because it is near a major support level.  The big question is will support hold.

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - Bearish pattern
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

Bottom Line Mid term trend is not good for world markets, especially countries that rely on exports. This is why countries that rely on exports are NOT now doing as well as the USA .

While this index does not have as immediate impact on stocks, as the Dollar does, it is very significant to long term worldwide economics.

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

The dollar was rose +0.31 % Friday. The Dollar is in a range between $79.5 and $77.5 . A breakout to either side will seriously impact stocks. Dollar closed at $78.30. Its  major support level is @$77.5 & it has 2 major resistance levels – a falling 50 day moving ave. at $79.20 and the August highs of @ $79.5 .  If it breaks down through support stocks should rise, if it breaks up through resistance stocks should fall.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

This is the index to watch because its impact is immediate.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on "Positions" at top of blog). Check it out

EWY (S. Korea) was bought at $39.9 and sold at $42.4 for a 6+ gain

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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