Investors 411 Record - Beating the S&P 500 for 4 1/2 years

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Yogi Berra – Old Yankee catcher

Both Mama Jama and Bob Sadinsky have come up with some valuable info on health care in the comments section of the blog.  Check out following Physician’s website – here

Yogi Berra said it best – Deja Vu All over again

Just like in the Iraq war when anyone questioned the war was shouted down with in your face screams that you were “unpatriotic,” “un American,” and” hated the troops.”

Now in the  health care debate. Bob points out that the same thing is happening. Town hall meetings to explain heath care reforms are being  shouting down and  disrupted.   This coordinated organized angry protesters are funded by the drug, insurance and right wing fringe groups. Some examples

  • In Massachusetts  one anti public health care advocate “likening Rep. McGovern to Nazi war criminal Josef Mengele, notorious for performing macabre experiments on concentration camp inmates.” link
  • In Connecticut “an angry mob” heckled Senator Dodd who has prostate cancer  to “treat” his cancer with a “handful of pain killers” & “whiskey” link

The Democrats are fighting back with the following add about the same old Mob . You can see it at the same above link (you may have to scroll down) Unfortunately this political in your face yelling works because it takes the attention off the debate/facts and onto yelling demonstrators.

Who pays for the almost 50 million uninsured people when they use the hospital? – First the hospital, then you pickup the eventual huge increased cost? If we institute a public system the cost would most likely be picked up by a 5% tax on those earning over 1 million dollars a year.

You pay or those who get big Wall Street bonuses, sport figures, Rock stars, CEO’s, old money mansioned  millionaires pay.

Yes, some smaller business owners will loose $50 k out of $1,000,000+ they make each year.  Some might cut a job instead of buying a new boat. But with health care covered the uninsured and those who loose everything because the insurance company finds a way to deny them coverage in a medical disaster will be protected. These folks will now be better able to spend money once they know they are covered.  Small business will benefit in the long run by their spending.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.36% down
NASDQ +0.13 % flat
S&P500 +0.30% up
Russell2000 +0.88% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Big news is jobless figures for July come out on Friday. Don’t expect major moves in US equities till that number is announced.

US markets shot up in the last 20 minutes of trading – A short term Bullish sign.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . 2975 is the major support level and the BDI closed at 3159 – down last four days in a row. As long as we hang in above 2975 stocks should do well.  This chart (click on BDI at beginning of paragraph) moves rather smoothly,

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term Bearish trend starting
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

Warning – The BDI falling through its support level at 2975 would be very bearish. BDI fell -9 2 points yesterday. At this rate we will reach critical support by the weekend.

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$USD - We broke that major support on Friday and dollar took another big hit Monday Tuesday the dollar inched forward +0.19% Here’s a multi year chart of the US dollar that show the line in the sand support level or its all time low below $71.00 in April to June of 2008 .

What this means for stocks – The dollar has a long way to fall before it hits major support. Therefore, stocks (and oil prices that are tied to the dollar) have a long way to rise before this support level is reached .

Support levels have been broken and that break conformed by Monday’s further meltdown. Dollar closed at $77.74. Lots of downside momentum established over sharp fall of last 3 trading days.  So yesterday looks like just a technical pause. Bullish for stocks

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

The problem here is investors are buying the smallest of dips. We’ll keep adding until the dollar and the BDI fall to their major support levels. The Dollar dropping is key to this rally and it has a long way to go before reaching major support levels. The BDI is close to breaking support and this will impact all exporting economies.

Therefore, by weeks end it may be time to take some profits on foreign investments like the Singapore and South Korea ETF’s. Both the falling dollar and BDI cold hurt these stocks if trend continues. China can hold its own even though overbought right now. Brazil is strongly influenced by oil prices and it should hold up even  better. – Nobody ever went broke taking profits.

Buying EWZ (Brazil) & QLD (2X NASDQ 100) on dips.

Apologies to those of you who are long term buy and hold traders. You could hold onto EWY (S.Korea) and EWS (Singapore). Investors411 has only held these positions for one and three weeks. Plan to reinvest in them again later. Right now they are over extended and vulnerable to falling BDI. So I’s using a tight stop/loss order after opening (I know I’ve lost some of you with this technical explanation)

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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