Will Ferrell & Company Video

Doggie’s Mom has sent in a humorous Video that is all over the web – Its about protecting big insurance companies and well worth the 2 minutes - LINK

Also check out Bob S’s latest concepts and why not add yours to the comments section. The Video says it better than any editorial comment. So check it out and pass it on to all your friends.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.52 % up
NASDQ +0.39% up
S&P500 +0.66% up
Russell2000 +0.71% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Markets moved higher in increased but below average volume.  The DOLLAR is still dictating which way stocks move. The Fed announcement this afternoon should impact the dollar/stocks. The Fed doing nothing-no change in outlook – will probably send the dollar down and stocks higher.

The falling BDI is reason for concern.  At some point its fall has to matter because trade is important. More trade between countries means more money flows and GDP’s grow.  The BDI turned positive before the markets moved higher this spring.  Therefore, it is a leading indicator.  Perhaps it will take another month or two, but you can’t keep seeing world trade fall and expect growth around the world.

Right now the Dollar is dominating, but global trade is critical for growth. The BDI was THE leading indicator that preceded equities moving higher, so it does deserve our attention.  Often, the USA is so insulated we only think about what’s happening here.

Fed decision on onterest rates today

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

2388 is support level/number to watch Yesterday BDI fell-68 to close at 2250. Major support level has been broken and the rate of fall is intensifying = Bearish for worldwide stocks.

The BDI is @47% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

What this means World trade is in trouble – lots of ships are sitting in ports empty.  To some degree, China has stopped buying raw materials and/or the US consumer is not buying as rapidly as earlier in the year. Braking a support level is significant, but 2250 (current level) is still a long way from the Dec. 2008 663 low. = Storm clouds gathering

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

As predicted the $76 support level held.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

The dollar fell a significant-0.92% - So stocks went up This wiped out several days of gains and the greenback is again sitting right above its $76.00 support level. If the dollar breaks through this support level the rally will continue. The huge drop certainly is favorable for dollar bears. Would think the support level will collapse today.

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

All our ETF positions are doing well most are outperforming the benchmark S&P 500.  One position SPX (20+% of the portfolio) mirrors the S&P 500.  This is the default position that Investors411 is using instead of cash.

Since this is such a ragging bull market its hard to find big dips to buy. Over the last month or two smaller dips (2 to 5%) have been used to add to positions

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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