How to Clean Your Computer Screen

Thanks to one of you who sent in this most  valuable LINK

What Happens When You Cheat?

  • You cheat – From Income tax to a college exam – Fines, jail, expulsion – there are consequences.
  • Big Shadow Banks cheat – Get truck loads of money and executive get lavish bonuses
  • Ahmadinejad cheats/steals election – You get the religious leader’s blessing, violently crush opposition and become president
  • Karzai (Afghanistan) steals election – You get a do over even when your brother is perhaps the countries top opium dealer and on the CIA payroll for last 8 years.  LINK

You and I pay consequences and are held accountable. Others….

Back to Back Tom Friedman Editorials – Afghanistan

TF is usually a hawk when it comes nation building and military escalation, but surprisingly he opens with “We need to be thinking about how to reduce our footprint and our goals there in a responsible way, not dig in deeper.” LINK

TF echos what Investors411 has been saying for years – As much as we and moderates in the Arab world want to see modernization we can’t do it for them. In fact, our involvement almost always makes things worse. This time the Pulitzer Prize winner adds

“A strong, healthy and self-confident America is what holds the world together and on a decent path. A weak America would be a disaster for us and the world. China, Russia and Al Qaeda all love the idea of America doing a long, slow bleed in Afghanistan. I don’t. ”

Where’s Waldo – Obama

Unemployment, Afghanistan, Health Care , etc. Where is our charismatic leader? Hard at work?  He spent his last few days going coast to coast on a fundraiser in FD, CA and even right here in MA. He’s out campaigning in VA and NJ.  Politics as usual or change we can believe in?

Is Obama’s work ethic beginning to look like Bush’s on Katrina? -  Difference – Obama does look good on the golf course.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.14% down
NASDQ -1.20% up
S&P500 -0.33% down
Russell2000 -1.13%
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Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar rules. The correlation is probably around 90% on a day to day basis.  The fall in stocks over the last three trading days is due to the rise in the dollar’s value vs. other currencies.

Basically the dollar falling is an indication that long term debt of the USA is growing relative to other currencies.  Growing US deficits is almost a consensus view. This has been ongoing since 2000.

What caused the three day rise in the dollar is probably all technical.  So many traders were short the dollar (expecting it to fall further) when some entity (probably a central bank(s)) bought dollars the rise forced the shorts to buy to cover.  A simpler explanation of this is basically there were so many sellers that there were no new sellers left.  Same thing often happens with buyers. Remember, just about everybody sold stocks in the spring and the fact that we ran out of sellers was one of the reasons markets turned.

For more see section on dollar below.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 30% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI lost -31 points yesterday and closed at 3013. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied almost 900 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool . It would be a wild guess to predict he daily moves of the dollar, but longer term fundamentals are clearly negative – the trend of a falling dollar should continue.

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose for forthethe third straight day +0.26% The dollar closed at $76.21 .  This is above the former support – now resistance level of $76.oo . Technically - Bullish for dollar & Bearish for stocks.

The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at 76.88 this AM. It’s the line in the sand – Best read of the tea leaves is that it will hold. In fact, Investors411 will add to some positions as we get close to this resistance level. The rate the dollar is falling has diminished as we approach this important resistance level. A sign that it will hold. However, if it falls we could see a major correction for stocks.

Last year’s low was around $71,(March 08 ) so there is a long way to go before the major and very crucial support level is reached . The dollar does have a support level around $74.00( a high from about a year ago – see long term chart)


Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Outside the USA in Emerging Markets (especially China, & Brazil) are much better in the long run - Our problem is one of timing. We can’t get a 5 to 10% dip to invest. Investors 411 should have much larger positions in emerging markets .

Look to add to EWZ (Brazil) and FXI (China) positions if they continue to fall this week . Bought more EWZ yesterday (see below)

For Traders (not long term Investors )

NVS (You could also sell 50% and put in a stop/sell order) I sold 50% of NVS (5% of portfolio) for a 12+% gain. Placed a stop/sell order at just under $50.00 for the other 50%.

EWZIt was a mistake to sell (9% of portfolio or 50% of total holding) of this. Buying it back -  Added (5 % of portfolio) EWZ at 71.7.  Will buy more if/when it drops lower.

Traders – Three major tech stocks leading the charge – Hope CSCO joins them when it reports earnings. Investors411 has a (5% of portfolio position in CSCO that is down over 3% )

  • AAPL – cutting edge computers and telecom revolution (phone’s) moving into China.
  • AMZN – Fabulous earnings report and forecast.
  • GOOG – Internet adds is growing even in USA.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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