Afghanistan


US ambassador, former general/commander in Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry , has “deep reservations ” about sending more troops to Afghanistan. His major objection is corruption in a country’s whose #1 economic product is opium. LINK & LINK

Finally a major columnist has drawn a comparison between spending money on heath care vs. spending money in Afghanistan . NTY’s Nicholas Kristof argues -  are we “better off spending that money blowing up things in Helmand Province or building up things in America.” LINK Lack of health car kills about 45,000 Americans a year and the Taliban in Afghanistan have not exported their violence to the USA.

Sherwehe points out in comments section of the blog LINK 2,200 0f those are veterans who lacked health care according to a Harvard study. If the current figures hold up “This year more veterans will die from suicide than will die on the battle field.” and “800,000 vets live on the street.

As pointed out before the major problem is Pakistan – 5/6 time the population of Afghanistan and a nuclear power. According to polls and DAWN (leading English speaking Pakistan paper LINK ) views of Americans are deteriorating rapidly.

Bottom Line – We simply can no longer afford to keep nation build around the world. Investors should note this is just another reason to invest in countries that are focused on building their middle classes instead of nation building opium rich country’s like Afghanistan.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.43% down
NASDQ +0.74% down
S&P500 +0.50% down
Russell2000 +0.98%
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Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dollar rose an anemic +0.07% , & US equities actually managed a minor rally in anemic volume.

The BDI is on fire. (see below) This is very positive for world trade, commodities, and an indicator China is buying.  In the OVERVIEW section of the blog PEAK OIL is mentioned as one mega trend impacting economics and stocks. You might consider peak oil as subset of commodities . As world population and middle classes in emerging markets grow the finite amount of commodities become more expensive.

Patten developing – On Thursday market’s fall in expectation of weekly jobless number and stocks rise on Monday – because of some merger.

The longer the dollar holds above its support level the stronger support becomes.

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 13% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a VERY significant +133 points yesterday and closed at 3748. Up 11 days in a row. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied about 1600 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now. Especially good for our positions in FXI & EWZ

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar was basically flat +0.07% yesterday. The dollar closed at $75.10 .  This is directly above its, line in the sand, support level. As predicted yesterday – Usually a major support level at least temporarily halts any fall.”

The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at $76.32 this AM . The support level is  a t @$75.00 Both are important lines in the sand. A breakout on either side will move US equities in the other direction and the world will follow.

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McCellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +16.70, – Not yet oversold, but moving in this direction,

Key to chart – 0 is roughly  neutral and when you get to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching -60 you are oversold. Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Oversold conditions = buy

Overbought positions = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Sorry have not had a chance to update Positions section in over a week

Investors

FXI – China – (now 25% of portfolio) At new high – up over 50+% this year

EWZ- Brazil (now 20% of portfolio) At new high – up over 100+% this yea r

GLD (now 11% of portfolio) At new high – up over 20+% this year

Comments – NOT the time to buy or add to these positions.  Enjoy the rally.

Going to add Indonesia & Vietnam ETF’s – but waiting for dips. Also going to add DGP (this ETF does about 2x what the GLD does) – More explanation later. As a trade like GS. Again, waiting for dips

Traders (short term plays) These are not ETFs, but individual stocks

Extra Note of Caution here Even though I always warn you AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! please note I’m far less confident in individual stock picks

NVS – (5% of portfolio)  We’ve already sold 1/2 of this for +12% gain  Now up 16+% since bought

CSCO – (5% of portfolio) Flat since we bought position a few weeks ago . – Going nowhere while markets have moved higher.  Selling soon for @ -1% loss – Hopefully into a rally. Sold 1/2 yesterday for -1% loss

AMZN – (now 5% of portfolio  ) Bought last WednesdaySold 1/2  for 11% gain . Like NVS letting the rest ride .

Long Term Outlook – The dollar looks like it may break down through major support and the benchmark S&P 500 is on the verge of a yearly high – Outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH if/when this happens. Instituted change, but subject to change

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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