Bats**t Crazy


In politics (or anything) its important to fight 100% for what you believe in. But Rome wasn’t built in a day. Sometimes you’ve got to be a realist and if you can make things better, you accept it and fight on.

Both privately and publicly those of you who have made comments or talked with me are furious at Obama (Afghanistan, Health Care, lack of leadership, & other issues.) Me too. Indeed one poll shows Obama nationally with a 51% approval rating (and sinking) and Hillary Clinton with a 75% approval rating. LINK

Nate Silver, who was perhaps the best pollster/analyst out there makes a strong case for accepting a health care compromise. (see chart above) Personally I’s love to see something like Medicare extended to all Americans (Bernie Sanders D. VT. Introduced such a measure) but the reality is it’s not going to win. Part of the reason for this is Obama’s lack of commitment and leadership. Howard Dean & others want to Kill the Health bill and start over. LINK

Silver’s chart and explanation of how he arrived at these figures is a rational reason to accept what’s there – "Progressives are Bats**t Crazy to Oppose the Senate Bill. "  LINK Nate goes on and lists 20 reasons why progressives and others should support compromise legislation – LINK You can also see an ongoing debate at his site LINK

Frankly, another strong argument is its time to move on – Jobs, fixing too big to fail structures, systemic economic risk, and the huge economic hole we are in desperately need more attention.  If progressives are going to waste time crying or raging over spilled milk and pointing fingers they become useless.

Bottom Line – If heath care cost are going to come down anything like Silver’s chart shows and the richest 1% in the USA pay for it I’m happy

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.10% up
NASDQ +0.27% up
S&P500 +0.11% up
Russell2000- +0.81% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar was flat and so were US markets. The Fed left interest rates and its statement about the future basically unchanged. Volume usually rises on Fed announcement days. In the short term it now looks like the dollar will rise and stocks fall. The Fed announcement reinforces this.

A week or two ago Investors411 mentioned small cap stocks (Russell 2000) would outperform other US indexes. This is happening. Unfortumately, no new positions were bought. Will wait for dip to buy.

FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST Up to flat week . But be careful we are entering overbought territory (see below) and if rally continues I’ll be taking profits rather than adding to stocks.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade)

In an effort to shorten all this technical data I’m going to write on the BDI weekly. The index is in a mid term downward (bearish) pattern right now & longer term bullish pattern (for over a year).  The BDI does forecast world market movement, especially China, but not immediately like some other indexes.  The fact that the BDI is falling right now is an indication of why China & some emerging markets are not as strong as the USA.

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar fell yesterday -0.07 . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant The dollar closed at $76.87 . Technically have broken up through the 50 day moving average resistance level and now broken out through another significant resistance level the Oct/Nov high at 76.82 = Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is bearish

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

. The index closed at +30.13 This is a slightly Overbought Position

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Bottom Line Start thinking about taking profits, especially into any continued rally .

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

Will wait to sell some ETF’s and stocks when McClellan Index/Oscillator approaches overbought (@+60)


Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Your Comments - (See "Monitor’s" comments on side of blog – About a week  ago Investors411 sold its positions in GLD. DGP, AMZN & NVS ) – Not interested in opening any new positions right now Waiting for a clear signal from MCellan Index to commit additional capital or sell existing positions .

If we rally into the end of this week I’d take some more profits

Near bailing out on small investment in BAC

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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