Why You Should be Afraid for America


A Tea Party rally protester holds a sign with President Obama depicted as a witch doctor.

A Tea Party rally  from CNN

Back decades ago  a civilized and almost polite battles of idea between intellectuals like Bill Buckley (right) and Noam Chomsky (left) was the media focus in debating an issue. Today that’s all changed and the we reward violent, outrageous, or polarizing behavior.

Perhaps the best example of the media rewarding bad behavior is the Music Awards when Kayne West stormed the stage, grabbed the mike from winner Taylor Swift and told the audience someone else deserved the award. Kayne was rewarded with a lot of attention including a feature guest spot at the opening of the new Jay Leno Show. Swift’s song was forgotten memory.

The exact same thing has happened in the health care debate.  Last year health care costs went up 3.5% while workers salaries dropped 1.5%, millions lost their jobs (health care benefits) and home prices fell.

Now hate mongers like Rush Limbaugh are screaming for segregation on buses, Glenn Beck calls President Obama a “racist,” and congressmen Joe Wilson screams Obama is a liar in front of an address to congress.  For this they are all rewarded-from cash to listeners their audience grows and of course the fuel the fires of hate and racism. They have no desire to seek a solution or debate only to sell hate. “Mad man” Glen Beck is rewarded and lands on the cover of Time magazine.

If the hate monger can increase your fear he/she knows your emotions will override reason or rational debate. More conservatives folks are especially vulnerable to this because they see the world more in terms of “you’re either with us or against us. Liberals get upset at what’s happening – they can’t believe people fall for this stuff and most importantly they Fail to Act.

One recent poll showed that 1/3 of the conservatives in NJ believed Obama could be the anti Christ LINK This group and those who spread the hatred is now in power in the Republican Party. No one in authority in the Party will stand up to them. This spiral of hatred is growing unless you stop being a Liberal or Moderate wimp and do something.


The best thing you can do is focus on the Health Care. Get out there and talk to how we can contain cost and get better coverage . You stick your head in the sand and those that want segregated buses or to carry guns to town hall meetings will win .
We’ve worked on health care since Harry Truman was President. Meanwhile, every other very  civilized democracy has passed a nationalized or competitive (public option) plan and voted to keep it.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.08% down
NASDQ -0.30% down
S&P500 -0.31% down
Russell2000 -0.31% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals .

This rally is based on a falling Dollar (down 8 days in a row) Up a smidge yesterday The dollar is oversold and reaching a support level (not a really strong support level).  This combination of oversold and an upcoming support level should hold for at least a day or two. This is exactly what happened. and it looks like the fearless forecast for week will be correct again.

Volume was down and that’s just what bulls want to see on a mildly bearish day. However it was not a huge drop in volume.  The Dollar fell all the way to $76.01 – right too its $76.00 support level. Probably another flat to down day that will see rally into the close.

While the BDI is troubling, there still is a lot of bullish momentum out there.

This is what is called a “quadruple witching Friday” – 3rd Friday of the month. = Lots of options expire so potential for lots of volatility.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The BDI has leveled off and started to rise over the last few weeks. BDI fell a minor -25 yesterday. They are small losses, but the index has fallen 6 days in a row . BDI trading at 2390 and has recently formed a resistance level at 2388. Would not trust any stock rally, especially in foreign exporting countries if the BDI breaks down significantly below this number.

2388 is number to watch We are getting mighty close to support levels . Another down day is reason for caution. Bears are growling as support levels seem to indicate a breakdown.

The BDI is 43% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost +170% from early April to Jun e

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

The dollar after falling 8 days in a row finally rebounded a little.  It rose  +0.12% yesterday. Dollar trading at $76.28 . . There is a support level around $76 (lows from Sept & Aug. of last year) As predict the $76 support level held.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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