A Christmas Carol

Charles Dickens-A Christmas Carol-Cloth-First Edition 1843.jpg
Cover of the first edition (1843) by Charles Dickens

In the spirit of the season let me remind any of you who are opposed to the Senate version of health care about a young boy called Tiny Tim from Charles Dickens A Christmas Carol
In the not too distant future millions of Tiny Tim’s (31 million more covered)  will now be able to get health care even though they have pre existing conditions.

Progressive, like me, are fuming over Obama and the fact that this bill should be much better – but Obama’s right it is better than nothing.

Perhaps the Ebenezer Scrooge’s of the USA will prevent this, perhaps not. The Bah Humbug crowd usually tries to use the deficit as an excuse to prevent the Cratchit family and Tiny Tim from getting health care. Baloney. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office see this bill as revenue neutral or slightly better. Their two great fears are that someone somewhere else is getting social insurance, & it will hurt the defense budget.

It’s the second reason that should send off every alarm bell in your head .

The Pentagon budget that has exploded over 100% since 2001 (from  $296 billion in 2001 to a projected $630 billion in 2110) This does NOT include new military bases, nuclear weapons or the Iraq/Afghan war – (one to three trillion) – depending on if you use DOD or Noble Prize winner Joe Stigletz as a source). So the real figure is closer to 200+ % more of your tax money has gone to weapons over the last decade ..We are close to averaging a 20% increase in military spending annually since 2001.

We are 3% of the world’s population and already spend over 50% of the worlds weapons budget . "And perhaps most disturbing of all, the Pentagon budget increased for every year of the first decade of the 21st century, an unprecedented run that didn’t even happen in the World War II era, [the cold war} much less during Korea or Vietnam."

Perhaps Tiny Tim and the Cratchit Family will get some crumbs of health insurance.

But the real problem is the Bah Humbug military Industrial industry who like the plant Seymour in Little Shop of Horrors screams FEED ME . We shovel blood and money at Bah Humbugs and the situation keeps getting worse.

"Build it and they will come" -  The only way stop the Ebanezer’s, Seymour’s, Neocon’s or whatever you want to call those who beg for continual 20% annual increases  in the military since 2001, is to cut their budget.

A very hard thing to do. The right wing screamers that dominate the media have fear mongered hatred toward Arabs, gays, Europeans (socialists), Canadians (socialists) Mexicans, Russians, Chinese, Liberals etc. Their fear mongering fuels the military budget. Obama has also just certified nation building in Afghanistan.

You obviously can’t keep justifying the exploding military budget without new wars .  Whose next? – Iran, Pakistan, China, Yemen, Russia, Mexican or Mexican immigrants. After that those nasty socialists in Europe whose economic Union is now economically (total GDP) larger than ours.

Far fetched? I think not. 
For more on Tiny Tim/Health Care see Paul Krugman LINK

For more on Defense budget costs William Hartung LINK

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that got more than 1 recommendation. I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

  • GOOG – Google – You all know the Google story – What’s not to like. Look at the chart – a steady upward trend above its 50 day moving average (blue line on chart)  It’s a bit overextended right now (too far from blue line) but when a decent buy the dip back to the "blue" occurs a buy.
  • PCLN – Priceline – My wife books our reservation on Priceline.  This chart is just what you want to see. Even back in February when everything was falling apart PCLN was moving higher. Look at the trend on the chart. A tempting buy now even though it like GOOG is overbought or too far above the "blue" line. A clear buy the dip stock
  • GS Goldman Sachs – Super connected mega shadow bank. Do these guys really own the Bush and Obama administrations? Who knows, but they certainly are smart and outperform everyone else in their sector # 2 is MS It looks like they have peaked and are starting to pull back. Congress has made some noise about "too big to fail" banks and systemic risk involved in the 2008 financial meltdown. But we all know they will yell a lot and do little.  They are falling in lighter volume – a good sign.

Tomorrow – YOUR top 3 choices

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.51% down
NASDQ +0.71% down
S&P500 +0.52% down
Russell2000- +0.49% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Fundamentally lots of investors/traders are changing their views to a V shaped recovery. Perhaps the most significant fundamental in this will be January’s employment report. If this turns positive (at start of the year it was -700,000 ) we will be in a sweet spot.

Another low volume rally .  Volume for decades has been the #1 confirmation factor for stocks. Since September volume has dropped and stocks have rallied. Translation less and less people/money (volume) are investing in stocks – yet they are rising.  Perhaps the best explanation is that there has been no fundamental rules changes for our financial sector. These longer term investors (I think accurately) realize we are just building another unregulated free market bubble and are seeking more secure investments.

McClellan Oscillator at +59.57 (overbought – see below) We are entering overbought territory. (See below)

A Santa Clause Rally strictly defined is the period after Christmas till 2 days into New Year, Historically S&P 500 is up 1.5% in this period since 1960

Last week’s – FEARLESS FORECAST "Up to flat weekMore up than flat. As predicted, heath care stocks led rally because congressional reforms are meager.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before "Up to flat week" – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

CAUTION – Check out how overbought we are, The higher we push over +60 the worse the situation becomes.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +59.57 This is an Overbought Position. = Time to start lighten up on positions. This does not mean the markets won’t move higher. I’ve set up a yearly chart of the $NYMO LINK You’ll notice that the $NYMO went all the way up to +100 in the big March rally.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

The hard part here is to be selling with the knowledge that stocks will probably move higher into the monthly employment announcement in early January.  Right now Investors 411 is a bit over 55% invested. (FXI, EWZ, MOO & UWM ) If stocks continue their move higher hope to basically cut this in 1/2 by January employment announcement.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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