FEAR

http://vator.tv/news/show/2009-05-19-fear-is-the-mind-killer

Photo from great article “Fear is the Mind Killer” Link

Your Comments

This week many of you have offered very valuable comments and concepts on the health care debate. Check out the comments section on the side of blog.

The latest fear mongering is somehow “death panels” are going to be created if you pass a health care plan. LINK

The irony here is that insurance companies now have an army of agents who look for cracks in legislation (many consciously developed by corporate interests) to deny health care to those who need expensive often life saving procedures.

Why the far right Lies, Shouts down and tries to promote Chaos It works! When you don’t have truth and facts on your side – you use fear to win.

Likely Course of Health Care Debate

Most Likely the House will have some sort of Heath Care Plan with a public option and the Senate will pass another watered down plan without a public option. Then there will be discussions.  Bottom line comes down to this – Are the Democrats willing to make the vote a simple majority rules vote rules? They have the power to do this or allow for  a Republican filibuster in Senate which will probably get less than a handful of Democrats to join in and therefore kill the public/private plan

The issue at stake is will we have a Public system like all the other industrialized Democracies who have for decades voted to keep them or will we have some watered down untested health care system.  Neither result will be universal health care. One plan may be a slight improvement, and a public option a significant improvement.

Cancer Breakthrough

Scientists at MIT have developed a ” a drug that can selectively target and kill the stem cells that drive the growth of tumors has been identified for the first time by scientists who searched more than 16,000 compounds to find it.” Story link here


STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.39% down
NASDQ +0.53 % down
S&P500 +0.69% down
Russell2000 +0.53% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Fed meeting this week went pretty much as expected – they’re pledged to keeping interest rates low and that’s good news for stocks.

France and Germany announced positive GDP growth in last quarter (+0.3% ) meaning they are no longer in recession. Good news for world’s economy. Their banks were far less involved in financial weapons of mass destruction (CDS’s) than ours. So in addition to more managed economies like China and India add France and Germany instead of the more “free market” USA economy as leading us out of recession. The far right should cringe because this looks like the socialists leading us out of recession.

One of the keys to keeping this recovery on track is mortgage rates . Rates below 5.5% = decent and the lower the better. Here’s a decent chart and story LINK

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern .  After a ten day drop the BDI has turned back higher  – up +78 points yesterday. The mid term trend since early July is clearly bearish, with a series of lower lows and lower highs. Bulls need a good long run here to break out of the bearish trading pattern.

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - Bulls are back (for now)
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.  What has become quite clear is that the dollars 50 day moving average has become and ultra strong resistance level . This is signified by the blue line on chart . Every time prices close to this descending line since the end of June they have failed to break out higher.

Once again we tested that 50 day moving average this week and failed to break out. The dollar has fallen the last three days in a row since the test. Down -0.61% yesterday. Long term the dollar is in a bearish trend and the short term bearish trend has returned. Mantra Dollar down usually = US stocks up

A gradual reduction in the price of the dollar is part of the solution to global worldwide recession n

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

The Positions section will be revised this weekend to show new positions in SPX 10+% EWZ another 5+ % FXI another 4% and more.

Personally I have been day trading US financials (FAS &FAZ) – I do not list day trades in Positions

Sometimes it’s surprising at just how long a trend last. But buying dips of trending sectors still works. -We are coming up on historically the worst two months of the year for stocks Sept. and October.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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