Investors411 record - Beating the S&P 500 for 4 1/2 years

Legislators For Sale

The reason Health Care is moving so slowly in congress is because of the massive amount of lobbying the insurance, drug and health care industries spend to distort the truth and buy legislators votes.

Keith Olbermann is not afraid to go after the Republicans and Democrats who receive massive amounts of cash from these industries for their vote. This is beyond the $1.4 million these industries are spending each day (NPR statistic) to defeat what almost every other industrialized Democracy has voted for, a public health care option.

Why have none of these countries voted to change back from their public or public/private heath care systems if they are so bad? -  Yes these other systems have problems, but they on the whole deliver statistically better care at far less cost.  The answer is Americans are bought by the big corporations. They dominate and pay for the media own the politician’s votes.

Here MSNBC’s Olbermann last night giving an example of just how owned our Senators and Congress people are – Legislators for Sale

I strongly urge you to pass this video on to your friends, email your congressman or better yet one of the wavering Politicians Olbermann mentions on health care and promise that you will send a contribution to his/her opponent if she or he fails to support a public option.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.25% up
NASDQ +1.52 % down
S&P500 +1.53% down
Russell2000 +1.63% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Big Rally – low volume. This rally is all based on the dollar breaking support levels and falling sharply for the second day in a row. (see dollar chart below) The products of globalized US companies who sell abroad  become less expensive when the dollar drops. Therefore, profits go up. Of course these same companies who have just fired American workers will now start to rehire foreign workers to keep up with growing demand.

Big news is jobless figures for July come out on Friday.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . 2975 is the major support level and the BDI closed at 3267 – down last three days in a row. As long as we hang in above 2975 stocks should do well.  This chart (click on BDI at beginning of paragraph) moves rather smoothly,

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short termNeutral (perhaps bearish trend starting)
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

.

$USD - We broke that major support on Friday and dollar took another big hit Monday down -0.88% to $77.59 against a market basket of other currencies. Here’s a multi year chart of the US dollar that show the line in the sand support level or its all time low below $71.00 in April to June of 2008 .

What this means for stocks – The dollar has a long way to fall before it hits major support. Therefore, stocks (and oil prices that are tied to the dollar) have a long way to rise before this support level is reached. Bullish for stocks and could mean the rally will get extended till we near support levels.

Fearless Forecast

The dollar slipping (closing) below major support on Friday is bullish for stocks. Even though markets are overbought and oil prices rising to yearly highs (in large part because of dropping dollar) it looks like another rally week.

Buy the dips of trending sectors. See recommended Positions section at top of blog.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

Buy the dips of recommended ETF’s (see Positions)

Adding to QLD , FXI and EWY (Korea) on dips . Also EWZ (Brazil) and EWS (Singapore)

The problem here is investors are buying the smallest of dips. We’ll keep adding until the dollar and the BDI fall to their major support levels. The Dollar dropping is key to this rally

Caution – Watching out for prices going elliptical – up too far too fast.

The Hedge – This is a major more conservative position of Investors411 (15+% of portfolio) – The long part QLD is at +19.74 and the short part SDS is at - 15.40 = Net gain of +4.34% As stated earlier at a 5+% gain we would cash (take profits) out of this investment.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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