Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +3.32% up
NASDQ +3.90% up
S&P500 +4.01% up
Russell2000 +4.54% -




President Barack Obama waves after his address to a joint session of Congress in the House Chamber of the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009.  Credit: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP 


Obama – “We will rebuild,We will recover”

Easily, Obama’s finest hour a President - Vision, substance, oratory and he connects with the American people. CNN 68% very positive, 24% somewhat positive. CBS 80% positive for his economic plan vs. 63% before the speech. Memorable moments.

  • “We are all Americans, we all  love this country” instead of “your either with us or against us”
  • Offering a vision and hope instead of fear mongering
  • Speaking to us as adults not adolescents.
  • Long term solutions/vison (energy, education, & health care) instead of reactionary politics
  • Returning to moral values/leadership – “American’s do NOT torture”
  • Gave Americans, not Washington or Wall Street insiders a sober assessment of the of how we benefit from the bailouts
  • The last 10 minutes was a clear vision of hope that only a gifted orator like Obama could deliver
  • He gets it – Its not Wall Steet or the wealthy that makes America great its our working class who fighting together build American dreams.

One speech does not make a presidency, but is can crystalize a vision. A comprehensive analysis from different authors at NPR. Another comprehensive analysis including Republican response  (Lesson – Do ask to follow an Obama speech) at perhaps the most accurate polling analysis organization FiveThirtyEight




Bernanke & Technicals

The Bulls won the battle yesterday as “the mother of all support levels” (see yesterday’s blog) on the benchmark S&P not only held, but traders staged a significant rally in increased above average volume = confirmation of rally. It is vital for  the SPX to hold onto the support level around 750. (see chart at side of blog.) The SPX closed at 774. The stock market price today is a forecast of where traders/investors think the future will be for US companies 6 to 9 months from now 

Many analysts felt Bernanke’s report to congress was the fundamental behind the rally as he summaries the past and presented a future vision that did not include “nationalization.”  What all this comes down to is the definition of nationalization. If the gov’t owns 40% of  the common shares of our #1 bank, Citigroup, is that nationalization?  Interesting video from Bloomberg financial news channel on Bernanke

Short Term Outlook – Your $

If you’re a long term investor who looks 3 to 5 years out and have very little invested in stocks the time to nibble just a bit is now while the Dow is near 7300, not 9000  If you own or bought gold (recommended GLD) and now have a 15+% gain take some profits. See Positions & Strategy section of blog. Yes markets could still break down through that mother of all support levels at 750 on the  S&P500.  But, hopefully, many of you were smart enough(as recommended) to get out of stocks when the Dow was well over 10,000.

Bottom Line - We had 6 to 8 down days in a row (depends on which index you use) and hit a very powerful support level. A bounce is to be expected as all the shorts covered their positions. Don’t get too exited about a one day rally, lets wait for some follow through


Long Term Outlook BEARS RULE


See STRATEGY, POSITIONS, OVERVIEW  & ARCHIVES sections of blog for more


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