Bill Mahr

Bill Maher by David Shankbone cropped.jpg

Last week he had Tom Friedman and this week he had Lincoln Chafee (former moderate Republican Senator) on his HBO show real time with Bill Mahr.  He’s sometimes over the top, always funny, and gives a non regurgitated version of current events.

His most important stat this week was 1% of the USA had 8% of the wealth in 1980 when Reagan took office. Now that 1% has 23% of the wealth .

Right now up on his web site is “How Sarah (Silverman) saves the world – Provocative and funny LINK

Obama’s Closet

Sitting on the desk in the Main Room is going to be that big shiny Nobel Peace Prize, but what happens when we open the closet door.

  • 13,000 more troops for Afghanistan (Obama’s “Necessary” war) LINK to WaPo story.  Obama’s words are sweet 7 he will have his Peace Prize.. But his action are totally different – now the USA has in Afghanistan and Iran “more troops than the peak during the Iraq “surge” that President George W. Bush ordered.”
  • Paulson (Bush’s Sec. of Treas.) instead of using TARP funds to absorb bad debt (CDS’s) gave the money to shadow institutions. Obama continued the practice and even allowed them to change their accounting practices so that they would not have to show bad debt. (eliminated mark to market accounting) You can call this good, bad or ugly. But the reality is, just like Bush he is privatizing profits and socializing risk.
  • How the hell are you going to reform anything (health care, medicare etc.) when all the money continues to go to shadow institutions and war.

Your Comments

Both D .& Sherwehe have opened a debate that enlightened anyone who has not fallen hook line and sinker for the fear mongering militarists who run the USA. What if the “$3 trillion ” going to fight wars went instead to other causes? Check out the comments and join the debate.

4 Factors Moving Stocks/Wall Street

Editorial below under Technical and Fundamentals. Unfortunately, these factors may move socks higher, but what’s good for Wall Street will not always help Main Street USA.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.21% flat
NASDQ -0.01% down
S&P500 +0.44% flat
Russell2000 -0.18% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Basically the US markets have been up 5 days in and overbought markets hesitated yesterday.  The Dow has eked out a new yearly high, but the other major indexes still have a point or two to break out to new highs. Four major factors stand in the way of a breakout (Actually there are lots of factors or potential factors, but three keys.)

  1. The Dollar – Discussed below
  2. The BDI – Again below
  3. Technicals – You have an overbought market that has risen in decreasing volume in front of major resistance level. = Bearish . However you do have one major US stock index and several foreign stock indexes (Brazil, Australia & some others) that have broken out to new highs. Also commodities like gold have had solid breakouts. = Bullish
  4. Earnings Season – Three major tech companies report this week – INTC, GOOG, & IBM . Everyone is looking for top line growth -sales. Last earnings season it was Intel’s  (reports tonight) expectations of a bit better top line that juiced markets. Three major shadow banks JPM (today),GS (tomorrow) report & BAC (Friday) .

Bottom Line – The shadow banks will continue to do well. Bush, Obama, and Bernanke (The Fed & our government) have privatized the profits and socialized the risk. The oligarchy, just like in a communist country soaks up the wealth. As long as they are NOT forced to use mark to market accounting and have the

The big tech companies should benefit from the falling dollar. They have cut jobs in the USA and will first hire people where labor is cheapest and closest to growing markets that do not have huge debt – China & other emerging markets. The question is has top line growth abroad (China’s stimulus package & other emerging markets) been strong enough. China, Brazil, India S, Korea (the 4 majors) combined are growing but their combined GDP’s are total 1/2 of the USA’s.

This will radically change in the next decade as they continue to out preform the USA. The US is burdened with massive debt, phony wealth created by shadow banks and huge war costs.

Best read of tea leaves – Shadow banks will do well. Less sure about Big tech, but there will be no huge earnings miss. Therefore, expect other indexes to follow gold & Brazil.

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 40% (I haven’t done the math) off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI nine day rally flattened out yesterday. It rose a +1 points yesterday and closed at 2696 . Even thougha reversal seems eminent, we have technically achieved a higher high =  Bullish for stocks & world trade

——-

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

The dollar reached a new yearly low (barely) last week and fell -0.35 % The dollar closed at 76.16. We have developed a support level just below $76.

NB – Earnings will probably trump the dollar as the #1 influencing factor for the nest two weeks. But the falling dollar is the main driver of stocks right now and we have a long way to go till we hit last year’s $71 low.

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Our positions in gold GLD and Brazil EWZ are clearly out preforming US markets and our China/smaller S. Korea position. The later two are approaching new highs. Would buy more of GLD & EWZ on dips. On a purely funadamental basis financials should lead any rally and are therefore a decent short term trade

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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