A Stiff Upper Lip 

You’ve got to admire the Brit’s for their stiff upper lip. Across the pond they’re in a lot more trouble than we are from England to the Ukraine. Most of the emerging democracies of Eastern Europe bought into what they thought was the American dream. It turned into an over leveraged toxic asset bubble with banks/countries wobbling on the cliff of insolvency nightmare.  

But at least the Brits  have some degree of transparency. Here almost everything  except the amount of bailout and stimulus funds is a deep dark secret. Take the deeply troubled Bank of Scotland now all but completely nationalized by the Bank of England.



The Royal Bank of Scotland has put admitted to  $722 billion of “troubled assets” of over leveraged toxic debt and are trying to wind down those liabilities. This loss is staggering England with about 1/5th the gross GDP of the USA.  But, they are dealing with the problem in the open.  We don’t even know the staggering amount of over leveraged debt of AIG, GE, GM or any of our major/minor banks.  The only thing we do know is the near meltdown of the financial system when Lehman Brothers went belly up and its toxic debt brought the entire worldwide banking system to its knees.

Unfortunately we also know this problem is going to get worse. Because more defaults are on the way,  unemployment is growing, home prices declining, and esoteric mortgages will soon start charging higher rates of reurn.


Obama Pass/Fail

Let’s give the guy credit for a transparent budget. He’s getting some excellent reviews because he stopped hiding many items like the Iraq war as part of the overall budget. 

But on the other hand he’s getting clobbered with his rosy economic assessment of the future. Whose he kidding? The US GDP will be -1.2% this year and +3.2% next year. A consensus of Economists believes otherwise as Peter Goodman in NYT point out. (Many thanks to one of you who emailed me this article)


“Geithner’s Folly”

Our new Sec. of Treasury has come up with something called a “stress test” for big banks.  Let’s get real. The vast majority of these toxic institutions invented the stuff that the Bank of Scotland has already admitted to. Big banks are broken. Wake up and smell the coffee – Geithner “is asking the wrong question. The question he is posing is: how can the government save Citigroup? The right question is: how can the government rebuild the banking system?”  Bob Kuttner, columnist for BusinessWeek, Boston Globe and co founder of the American Prospect on no matter how good the rescue plan is it doesn’t matter a lick if you don’t fix the banks.





Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -1.66% huge
NASDQ -0.98% up
S&P500 -2.36% huge
Russell2000 -1.00% -


Technicals & Fundamentals

Just about every front page is covering the biggest ever quarterly loss - $62 billion by AIG. 

From Friday“The Ugly news” would be - “The SPX ends closing  a bit below 741.  This would just establish a lower low (see chart on right side of blog) and further entrench the bears rule chart pattern.”  

The SPX ended up at 735 (A bit below its mother of all support barriers) and technically this along with no climax selloff  shows there’s more down side to come. Perhaps today we may see a climax selling panic today and a chance to nibble. To have a “climax” sell off you need both a big fall and big volume.

Big news of the week is the employment numbers for February come out Friday. 

Reading the Tea Leaves – How many Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger signals can there be?   – Hope you protected any long investments.


Long Term Outlook BEARS RULE


See STRATEGY, POSITIONS, OVERVIEW  & ARCHIVES sections of blog for more


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