Investors411 on Hiatus for the Week

Will Return Aug 3rd.

Overwhelmed with business deadlines and grandkids so just a short overview today.

Health Care

The single best argument I’ve heard for Public Heath Care is virtually all other industrialized democracies have a public heath care plan of some sort. If these plans are so inferior why have the voters NOT changed back to a private  plans? These plans may not be great but they provided statistically verifiable better results at a cheaper price.

Many folks in every country can tell you some horror stories about their heath care plan. Like the 58 year old nurse in front of the US Congress last week. She was denied coverage for a double mastectomy because she had a skin rash some months previously. Even though her dermatologist (MD) pleaded that it had nothing to do with her breast cancer she was denied coverage.

We enjoy Harvard Community Health Plan. A plan that is constantly rated "best" or one of the best in the nation. The problem is it keeps going up in price 5 to 10% a year. Thank God I’ll be able to qualify for Medicare (public health care) in a few years, because the premiums are going through the roof.

If Republican’s and those who oppose change cared why did they do nothing over the entire course of the Bush administration?

NYT outlined some of the benefits that changing health care offers here

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.26% down
NASDQ -0.39 % down
S&P500 +0.30% down
Russell2000 +0.48% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

The NASDQ is the only major index significant multi day volume confirmation of its price move.

Earnings season begins to wind down. While many companies are increasing profits by cost cutting, there are some major companies that are actually increasing revenue and profits.  Intel started this ball rolling.

Off had, I do not remember US markets being this over bought.

Besides earnings here is one Business site on various positive indicators.

Bernanke has a Town Hall meeting (First time ever for Fed Chair) Defended stimulus package and unemployment peaks at @10% early next year.  If government had not interviened there would have been another great depression.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The rate of decline flattened toward the end of the week. Bullish sign We have had a series of lower lows and lower highs since early June. We have a way to do before we establish a new low (see yesterday’s update).

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term Bullish pattern could be starting
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

.

$USD - The Dollar went down and tested its major support level all last week . The last remaining support level is the June lows at @78.4. The dollar index closed at 78.75 . Breaking this support would be very bearish for the dollar and bullish for stocks.

Fearless Forecast

The FF struck out last week. As Investors411 saw the rally taking a breather in the second half of the week. We rallied into the weekend. Technically conditions are still way overbought . So some kind of stabilization is predicted again this week. We are in a rally and this rally is now in danger of going elliptical. Up too far too fast. This would mean a big crash and burn.

The dollar slipping (closing) below $78.4 would certainly move stocks higher. Dollar at 78.46 this AM in pre market trading.

Buy the dips of trending sectors.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on "Positions" at top of blog). Check it out

Buy the dips of recommended ETF’s (see Positions)

Hopefully you were "stopped out" of the suggested FAS short position. (see Wednesday’s Update) If not tighten stops. Consider EWY (South Korea) on dip.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark