This is the Moment

Obama

Huffington Post photo

You can make a difference. I joined to make a difference in the health care reform not for me (I’ll soon be on Medicare) but for my/your kids, grandchildren and the future of America. Hope you will too. LINK HERE

Just in case here are some more facts on health care in America.

  • The illusion that we have the “best health care system in the world” – link here
  • Among the developed countries we have the 10th highest death rate of cancer patients. link here
  • Staggering health cost prevent 38% from getting access to heath care access vs. 11% for Canada and 6% for the UK link here
  • I know he’s theatrical, but his facts check out. Here’s Michael Moore’s SICKO blog link here

The public health care component proposed does not go far enough to really make me happy. But, its a start.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.42% up
NASDQ -0.91 % up
S&P500 -0.29% down
Russell2000 -0.83% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Big news is JOBLESS FIGURES for July that come out on Friday. Anything over -400,000 will be bad for stocks. The “cash for clunkers ” program will improve auto sales for the next month or two. Senate just approved more funding. Unfortunately after the Ford Focus the next 4 top selling cars in the program are foreign. Link here

Tech giant  Cisco CSCO (see chart) marks the end of major earnings reports for the quarter. There were some positive comments about the economy from the CEO here

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . 2975 is the major support level and the BDI closed at 3051 down last five days in a row. As long as we hang in above 2975 stocks should do well.  This chart (click on BDI at beginning of paragraph) moves rather smoothly,

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term Bearish trend starting
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

Warning – The BDI falling through its support level at 2975 would be very bearish. BDI fell 109 points yesterday. The rate of decline is growing. At this rate we will reach critical support today.

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$USD - We broke that major support on Friday and dollar took another big hit Monday Tuesday the dollar inched forward +0.19% Yesterday the dollar gave back those gains -0.23% Here’s a multi year chart of the US dollar that show the line in the sand support level or its all time low below $71.00 in April to June of 2008

What this means for stocks – The dollar has a long way to fall before it hits major support. Y esterday’s close - $77.56 Therefore, stocks (and oil prices that are tied to the dollar) have a long way to rise before this support level is reached .

Falling dollar is Bullish for most US stocks

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

The problem here is investors are buying the smallest of dips. We’ll keep adding until the dollar and the BDI fall to their major support levels. The Dollar dropping is key to this rally and it has a long way to go before reaching major support levels. The BDI is close to breaking support and this will impact all exporting economies.

  • Sold all EWS (Singapore ETF) at 10.25 . This was bought at 9.4 (see positions section of the blog) The net gain on this trade that was @6% of portfolio was @+8%
  • Sold all of EWY (South Korea) at 41.75. This was bought at 39.9. The net gain on this trade which was @5% of portfolio was @ +5%

If job numbers are bad, but not a disaster, ill buy QLD Friday when stocks fall. Also considering add more EWZ (Brazil) on dips ASAP. This again depends on the jobless numbers.

Perhaps I’m wrong, but the downside risk (markets are also way over bought) outweighs the upside gain right now. Also the BDI sure looks like its going to break support levels and make a lower low. That’s bad for world trade especially Singapore and S. Korea that depend on it.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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