Wins in Missile Removal

Location of  Poland (dark green)

About a week ago Obama decided not to deploy a radar & missile outposts in Poland and Czechoslovakia – supposedly for use against Iran-

  • Russia is now NOT deploying missiles near Poland. Unfortunately this is a big deal in foreign press, but not here. LINK from India
  • CNBC is reporting this AM that the Russians are “more willing” to accept sanctions against Iran.
  • Biggest countries benefiting from this is Israel, Saudi Arabia, & Gulf states who will see increased spending on mobile defensive missile ships that will be placed directly between them and Iran.

Losses in Afghanistan

Obama said Afghanistan was a “Necessary” war and surged another 21,000 troops right after his election. Total now 68,000 vs. @ 140,000 in Iraq. Now generals are asking for a whole lot more (40,000+)More Americans are dying thee now than in any year since the war started.

  • The recent elections were a fraud
  • Why do we need to nation build there?  The chief product there is opium not oil.
  • Did we not learn anything from Iraq? – Iraq is poorer now than when we invaded, now has the 3rd most corrupt government in the world, (LINK) was the first government to recognize Ahmadinejad’s victory, etc. (could write a page on other financial and human losses)

Bottom line – We need to keep terrorists from getting nuclear weapons in Pakistan.  The US needs to stop throwing money nation building in Iran, Afghanistan or any other similar country like the Sudan, Yemen, Libya etc. Ronald Reagan was right when he took troops out of Lebanon.

If you want to launch a missile and kill a bunch of al Quaeda who are a threat that’s OK, but Colonialism didn’t work in the last century and we should learn from history. Best Link for more info.

We could fix a whole lot of problems if we stopped spending trillions nation building and teating every problem as a military problem. Come on Obama – Remember “Change we can believe in? Those of us who voted for you do.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0,83 % up
NASDQ -0.69% up
S&P500 -1.01% up
Russell2000 -1.18% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Major US markets after rising over 1% after the Fed announcement gave it all back and then gave back more. Volume was up especially NASDQ) The other major indexes had average volume.  It sure looks like this is the beginning of the expected correction mentioned for the last two weeks.

The dollar, of course, moved higher. However it seemed to be US stocks leading the much larger currency market and not visa versa.

If you look at the charts of the major US indexes they are well extended over their 50 day moving averages. (More sophisticated traders look at something called Bollinger Bands) and at least a technical correction seems likely .  How this happens is everyone is expecting the dollar to fall further and consequently stocks to rise. Traders have to rush in to cover their positions or loose out on gains. So you have short term traders panic and a selling spree.

The troubling fundamental behind all this is the BDI (see yesterday’s post) The rate of fall is growing.

Earnings season is around the corner.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

2388 is support level/number to watch Yesterday BDI fell -71 t o close at 2175. Major support level has been broken and the rate of fall is still intensifying = Bearish for worldwide stocks.

The BDI is @49% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

What this means World trade is in trouble – lots of ships are sitting in ports empty.  To some degree, China has stopped buying raw materials and/or the US consumer is not buying as rapidly as earlier in the year. Braking a support level is significant, but 2250 (current level) is still a long way from the Dec. 2008 663 low. = Storm clouds gathering

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

As predicted the $76 support level held.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

The dollar rose +0.32% yesterday and closed at $76.33 This is above its support level

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

For traders (not long term investors) on individual stocks. I personally cashed in on a 8% gain in APPLE yesterday.  Will buy back in on dip. I often get burned with this – my major mistake was taking profits in Google at 150 and never got back in.  I do plan to buy more AAPL on a dip. Holding onto flu play NVS until flu epidemic breaks. Also considering buying MVIS (Microvision) or CIEN (more later on this stock) on any dip.

Shorter term traders may want to take some $ off the table in recommended ETF’s.

Note Investors 411 is covering a few stocks for traders.  This blog will remain focused on ETF’s for reasons previously discussed.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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