Obama One Year Later

Obama

There are a number of reviews on what’s happened since Obama was elected a year ago ranging from praises that he kept us from a financial meltdown & a dramatically improved market to failure to fix the banking system and wasting money and lives nation building.

Perhaps the most read left of center blog, the Huffington Post’s namesake take  a shot at Obama LINK

A compilation of views can be found here LINK

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Yes Men Save The World

Bablegum featuring the Yes Men!

Doggie’s Mom sent in a very positive review of a LOL comedy at your local theater on a very serious subject. These con artists tricked the BBC into believing that Dow Chemical was going to adequately compensate victims of the greatest industrial accident in the world in Bophal India. Over 10,000 have died and well over 100,000 require medical assistance for the rest of their lives. You can see a 6 minute video on the actual hoax. LINK

LINK to their site

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0,79% down
NASDQ +0.20% down
S&P500 +0.65% down
Russell2000 -0.07%
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Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

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The Long Term Long Term Outlook is back to NEUTRAL As mentioned last Wednesday – When the Long Term Outlook is changed we often go back and forth for a while as stocks move above or below key support levels Basically why this change was made is technically all major indexes are trading below their 50 day moving averages and US markets are not reacting to positively to some good news.

We have a bipolar , schizophrenic market. Yesterday we had about as good as it gets in economic news and investors/traders sold into that news.  The market is now considerably oversold and seems to be ripe for a rally. One very negative sector is banks.

The good news was the ISM numbers . If you don’t understand this here’s a LINK on yesterday’s Institute for Supply Managements “Very Encouraging Employment Numbers.” If all else was equal these numbers should have sent the oversold Doe up 200 to 300 + points.

What happened is the dollar moved slightly lower, so stocks moved slightly higher. The dollar index has a strangle hold on stocks.  The inverse relationship still overwhelms all other factors.  Best guess is – traders (longer term investors are totally spooked) are sitting on the sidelines waiting for another 5% to be shaved off the markets before they return.

The Dollar War - Fundamentally, individual investors see the huge and growing US debt and think its a no brainer – the dollar is toast – its going to fall.  Central Banks across the world see a weaker dollar as very bad for their economies. Example Japan their export products cost more in US & oil costs more to buy.  So many central banks across the world buy the dollar.

More so than anything else what happens hinges on the October unemployment figures that come out later this week. The ISM data predicts we’ll get an unemployment figure below 200,000 jobs lost and that should be good for stocks.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 27% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a significant +82 points Friday and closed at 3185. . A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied @ 900 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar dropped a modest -0.18% yesterday. The dollar closed at $76.22 .  

From yesterday – The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at $76.71 this AM . So dollar is 0.49% away from major resistance. It’s the line in the sand – Best read of the tea leaves is that it will hold. In fact, Investors411 will add to some positions  as we get close to this resistance level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells


Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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