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Both Bob Sadinsky and sherwehe have echoed Jon Stewart and added to the Rape and Halliburton /KBR story in the comments section of the blog. The fact that this and other brutal rapes of American women are NOT publicized shows the vast power of American corporations especially those of the military industrial complex.

Obama is a huge disappointment in this. If he stood up and spoke out forcefully for rape victim Jamie Lee Jones you would see headlines behind this story/legislation.

Disaster for Democrats – Globalization

Teddy Roosevelt

Perhaps the headline here should be China Rising - Globalization. See OVERVIEW section of blog for more. Here again is the Good, Bad, and Ugly for globalization.

The Good – Globalization has brought a better standard of living to hundreds of million of people in emerging markets.  It has produced jobs and better paying jobs across emerging markets. Worldwide GDP has expanded

The Bad – If you are an American worker you are the first fired and the last hired. You cost too much to employ relative to cheaper costs abroad. Globalized companies also have to pay for your health care. Ross Perot was right – that giant sucking sound is job loss in America.

The Ugly – Globalization has helped concentrate power and puts wealth/power in the hands of fewer individuals at the top. This leads to corruption and less accountability.  From corporate power in globalized companies to one party rule in China, this trend has helped led to a class of ultra wealthy, powerful and potentially corrupt individuals who are increasingly above the law.

Why it’s disaster for Democrats – They’ve embraced globalized Wall Street instead of fixing the problems.  Jobs are going to be created over seas where markets are growing, labor is cheaper and health care is provided or absent.  Wall Street grows while Main Street suffers = disaster for Democrats in upcoming elections.

Solution – Globalization, like capitalism can work but it needs regulation or rules. Globalization, of course, is part of a world wide capitalist system. Yes it creates faster economic growth. But, it also creates imbalances, or cancers.

Teddy Roosevelt acted and took down growing concentrations of power (monopolies – like Standard Oil) when capitalism raged out of control. This capitalist problem is now far more globalized.  We’ve had many warnings – the last major one was last years financial meltdown.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.50% up
NASDQ -0,59% up
S&P500 -0.62% up
Russell2000 -1.43%
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Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Mea Culpa Lots of you sent personal emails that I forgot to change yesterday’s stock chart. It was Monday’s results. Sorry Today’s got changed.

Usually volume is the #1 confirmation factor or forecast tool. However, the dollar’s rise or fall is now dominating the US stock market. Since (as discussed in past Investors411) the longer term trend is for a lower dollar –  Stocks should move higher.

Stocks fell in increased, average volume. Technically a moderate short term bearish sign – But the dollar rules right now.

Reality – money is NOT coming into this market from the sidelines. This does not mean we can’t rally further. But it does mean you have to pay close attention as an investor.

After a breakout 8 day rally, oil prices LINK finally fell

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 37% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose +66 points Friday and closed at 2832. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed and it sure looks like a bullish run could be starting. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool.

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose +0.22 % The dollar closed at $75.53 . We have developed a support now resistance (it’s called support on the way down and resistance on the way up) level just below $76 . The dollar closed below its support level. = Bullish for stocks

NB -

  • Earnings will probably trump the dollar as the #1 influencing factor for the nest two weeks. But the falling dollar is the main driver of stocks right now and we have a long way to go till we hit last year’s $71 low.
  • A slow decline in the dollar = good a rapid decline = bad .

Last year’s low was around $71,(March 08 ) so there is a long way to go before the major and very crucial support level.

Therefore, The dollar can drop much lower and stocks rise much higher till support levels are reached


Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Review of Positions (Part 3) This section is really for traders who are comfortable owning a position for a day or two – Would sell on any 7 to 10% drop. NOT a Longer term Investment

Recommendation Buy the Dips till the dollar drops to near $72 . Have positions in NVS & CSCO. Waiting on other positions for dip.

NVS – Novartis is a major European drug company that continues to steadily move higher. +13% since bought .  In part this is a swine flu play whose technical chart looks good. Going to sell NVS when flu hits – perhaps a month or two.

AAPL- Apple (don’t own) Fundamentally a fabulous story. Beating on top and bottom line. Only 49% of profits or sales (sorry forgot which one 0 it was announced on CNBC) come from abroad. That means not only Apple exploding in the USA but it has room to grow in faster markets (faster growing GDP) like China/India

CSCO – Cisco. Has been moving into the “telecom revolution” (Apple’s and related products). One of the best internet “picks and shovels” maker. 0% gain/loss since bought. Consolidating right now.

MVIS, – Has best technology in its sector and a couple of huge moves higher. Recommended by one of you

GS , & JPM – Fundamentally the best two financial companies. Their competition is weak and they’ve used taxpayer funds to their advantage (see past Investors411)

CAT – Caterpillar – Best heavy equipment maker. Just had blowout top and bottom line earnings report. A major China/Emerging markets play.

EWZBrazil -Up way too far too fast.  Trader s should lighten up on this ETF

Sold 50% of position in EWZ yesterday for @ a +39% gain. Hope to buy back in on bigger dip. Also have sold all of EWY (South Korea) for +11% gain

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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