Massachusetts

Jobs/ Divided Governments

Lets take a look at two states California and my home state of Massachusetts.  California has divided government with Democrats in control of the state legislature and Arnold the Republican “terminator” as Governor for the last 8 years Massachusetts has both a a Democratic Legislature and Democrat Deval Patrick as Governor for the last 4 years

  • California – 12.4 % unemployment. foreclosure abound, & education in crises mode. Government grinded to almost a hault.
  • Massachusetts 8.6% unemployment, #1 in student education 2007 to 2009 (US dept. of education), and 7 straight months of jobs growth. All this with 97% of our citizens having health care for years.

If all Republicans and Democrats do is fail to compromise and like the tea party – let off steam/scream – the result can be far worse than expected when your state has a divided legislature.

Compare Massachusetts. employment rate or education rankings with that of any high population industrialized state like New Jersey (9.6% unemployment) Florida (11.7%) etc.. Right wing, CNN even rated Massachusetts as #5 on list of best states to do business in.

TARP

An in depth analysis of what it cost us to keep from economic catastrophe. Answer extremely little.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.39% down
NASDQ +0.09% down
S&P +0.44% down
Russell 2000 +0.47% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Same Old Song - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders are buying the dips. Markets move slightly higher and volume down.

  • Good news – markets move up in lighter volume
  • Bad news – No worries the Fed will inject money into the economy. Currently using the POMO
  • Dollar fall – Means better outlook for exporters in their earnings reports.

Here’s a stock analysis by respected Abby Joseph Cohen

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell  -0.80% Friday.  Looks like we have had a very short consolidation. Basically free fall. Set chart to one year or more – You will see big support level at $74+. Currently dollar at $78.09. For stocks fall is = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose a tiny +o.25% Friday.  An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall, now pushing higher. Now flat for last few sessions = Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]   Rose to +22.42. Still lots of room to move higher or lower. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Hard to see any serious stock reversal with the dollar continuing to fall. The BB/HFT’s algorithms seem to be set to buy the dip.

Earnings season is around the corner and the lower dollar should help forecast of exporters.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)  One of several foreign ETF’s that have broken out and starting to get over extended.
  • USO (price of oil/commodity). Exploded through resistance level and nearing 5 month high. Part of this is tied to dollar falling.
  • SSO (2x what S&P does) 1/2 this got stopped out for small 4% gain.  A 2% trailing stop the rest set today.
  • TYH (3X technology) Got stopped out for a measly 1+% profit.

Considering taking profits on 1/2 of EWS & USO. EWS is in double digits for profits and USO close. Would let the rest ride. Perhaps another 2% stop loss set near open. Both EWS & USO are longer term investments.

What happened to Green Mountain Coffee  GMCR - An almost 20% dip between close and the next day’s open is the risk you take in investing in individual stocks. Big melt ups and downs are unpredictable.  That’s why Investors411 has spent time on beating the drums for “Diversity” and “Pigs Gets Slaughtered” (See last weeks and previous updates).

Your safer owning all or a large chunk of YOUR stock List.

Same holds true for country based ETF’s but they are far less vulnerable. Only in a huge meltdown will you see them drop perhaps 4% between a close and open.

Same smaller impact for Dividend based stocks and ETF’s (see positions section of blog)

Especially if you are holding only a few stocks – we are entering earnings season and the volatility increases.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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