Great Cartoon on al Qaeda

Sorry, I had trouble loading this “Troubletown” image by Lloyd Dangle

But here’s the LINK

“Mind Your Own Business”

Isolationism has returned to the USA.

49% of US residents believe “The US should mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own,” according to a Pew Report. Up from 30% in 2002.  44% disagreed. UPI story – LINK

Headline from Pew – “U.S. Seen as Less Important, China as More Powerful
Isolationist Sentiment Surges to Four-Decade High.”
The poll also has some significant opinions on what the Council of Foreign Affairs believes (Who is the CFA LINK )

LINK to Pew Poll .

US has just launched a major offensive attack with 1000 soldiers in Afghanistan. Local cable & networks has all the fireworks for those who still want to watch shock and awe.


Global Warming

Reality – Let’s for the sake of argument say the there is a 2% chance the scientists are wrong about Global Warming. So what?

The era of cheap energy is over. Natural resources are finite . The energy sources we use most are pollutants that also kill. Go breath the polluted coal dust in China’s air (slow death) or shut yourself in the garage with your car running (quick death)

It’s technologically wonderful that we can drill five miles beneath the ocean and then go horizontally to find oil and/or squeeze oil out of rock/shale.  But besides pollution this is also obviously dramatically more expensive in cost. We are also becoming more dependent on foreign supplies/dictators for energy. Therefore,  strategically,environmentally, and economically we need to diversify energy resources.   Stop being idiots and work to diversify energy sources.

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.83% up
NASDQ -0.54% down
S&P500 -0.84% up
Russell2000 -1.23% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dollar rose a wee bit and stocks fell. Looks like fear of bad jobs report spooked the markets.

Volume was way up on the Dow and significantly above the moving average for the S&P 500. Large volume on a moderate down day (less than 1%) is bearish . Perhaps this is a whole lot of traders expecting bad numbers for the jobs report.

Jobs # for Novembe r

Headline -  10.0% Unemployment . HUGE POSITIVE SURPRISE Unemployment number drops from 10.2% in Oct. Job loss is -11,000 jobs , (5 digits not 6) and the revisions of past two months way down. Oct. down from -190,000 to -110,000. Sept. down -80,000 too. The non farm payroll decline is greatest since Dec. 2007

These numbers are too good.


Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI rose +144 points yesterday and closed at 4062. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1800 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, 9 down days in a row & now up 2 days in a row. Multi day moves in one direction are common

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. After, what looks like a technical correction we are agin moving higher.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose  +0.08% yesterday . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant  The dollar closed at $74.71

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +4.82 This is a Neutral Position . This chart is showing we seemed to have reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month,. Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

This section need to be updated – Sold 8% (24 to 16 % position in portfolio) of FXI and all of DGP. Taking profits was a mistake and bought back all of DGP (Double gold) & 1/2 of FXI.  This all happened because yours truly got spooked over the Dubai crisis.

Recommended ETF’s and Trades

DGP – Investors411 once again sold all of the DGP (2x what gold does)position at 32.7 yesterday. (see yesterday’s Investors411 – danger of going parabolic)  About a week ago I sold  DGP for a +6% gain. This time it was only a +3% gain. Still holding onto some GLD and expect a pull back.  We have NOT had a big parabolic move higher, but perhaps a small one and are definitely over extended. Gold is going to drop like a stone today because of jobs report (see yesterday’s update) The DGP play is only for traders and short term investors.

NVS – Tightened the stop on NVS to @ 5% below where it is now.

AMZN Perhaps it was a mistake to hold onto this stock into the jobs report, but we still have 1/2 position if this stock. It’s up almost 20%, but due for a pullback.  Again any stock investment or ETF that doubles or triples what a normal ETF does is a short term play for traders and short term investors – NOT long term Investors .

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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