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A Movie Concept

By Yankee Bob

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I am disappointed to find out that Romney, thru Bain, thru Clear Channel is not only in a cozy relationship with Right Wing radio but, it could be argued that he is the most powerful man in it. Romney may no longer be running Bain but, he still is the most important voice there as the biggest shareholder, a board member and most every one there probably owes their job to him.
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Bain  controls Clearchannel.  Clearchannel brings us the agitated voices of Right and Fringe Right. Nothing  and nobody can survive there  if it offends the ultimate corporate head which is Romney.
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Hey- I have an idea for a movie.

Lets take a somewhat young and handsome  rich guy and run him for President.
We’ll bill him as an outsider even though he hails from a politically prominent and connected family. We will bill him as a competent business man even though he is a famous Vampire Capitalist and his biggest success, the Utah Olympics succeeded because of massive amounts of money from the fed gov.
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He secretly has control of the dominant air waves in the US. Therefore he can frame his own message, he can shape and attack public perception of his opponents. He can have his minions attack   and frame his opposition while he gets to stand in the shadows.
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How many people still believe the Birther nonsense, and how many still believe Obama is secretly a Muslim and has an agenda to make the US a  Socialist weak state. Mitt can have this drumbeat going every day without showing his hand.  He doesn’t even have to write the scripts.
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He only has to choose voices that will be friendly and useful to the cause of framing things the way that benefits Mitt.  Will mistakes be made? Will they overreach/ Sometimes but what a concept.
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Romney can pull the levers of the Air waves without public scrutiny that he  is doing so. What a concept. It is brilliant. It’s been exposed now but guess what?? None of the TV networks are covering the story None of them are talking about Rzomney’s influence thru Bain, thru Clearchannel.
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The whole debate and coverage of Rush this week is in terms of  how despicable his words were. It has not been about how Rush is a useful tool for Romney. Are the TV networks afraid to talk about it? How damaging would it be for Romney if they did?

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Rush Limbaugh

It’s not only women  Limbaugh dehumanizes –

heres a top ten list of his racist quotes ,

35  companies have dropped Limbaugh.

32 Companies according Media Matters. (16 hours ago)

One medium sized blog has picked up on the Bain/Limbaugh/Romney connection


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

  • From yesterday –  Investors411 warned of “some other dark clouds on the horizon”. Technically a pull back (say 3 to 5%) would be healthy for the market. So would a flat consolidation period. It now looks more like we may get the pull back…Short term :-(
  • Brazil, a key emerging market, announce its GDP for 2011 at 2.7% vs 7.5% for 2010.  Expected, but not good news, especially because it came after China lowered GDP expectations. Their Central bank will probably do some money printing.
  • Lots of hair pulling over Greece, but Europe has had years to get ready for a possible Greek default. Maybe now, maybe later, but a default will come. The International banks, unlike the Greek people, will take the smallest of hair cuts over this.
  • The long term trend remains – “Don’t fight the Central Banks - As long as they are dumping liquidity (printing money) to cover up losses anyone who has thought stocks would falter over the last three years has been on the wrong side of this trade.”
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -87.13.  (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Oversold territory which starts at -60. OMG oversold starts at -90 =BULLISH
  • A three year chart of the MO shows it has dropped below -87.13 only 7 times. The lowest of those lows was @-140 after the end of QE 2 in April of 2011.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield fell  this AM to 4.97% (6:30 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone.
  • All the trouble in Greece is NOT having much of an impact on Italian bond rates. Therefore, our canary in a European coal mine is still singing.

Bottom Line -  From yesterday “A buy the dip opportunity may be opening up for both long term investors and short term traders.”.

Investors411 has editorialized from Feb 13th through 29th that the world wide banking system is not capitalism, but a unregulated casino extraction system which is building a another  bubble.

But,

  • there is no sign that that bubble is ready to burst yet. Italian bonds at 4.97% and 10 year US Treasuries at 1.94% show a hell of a lot of stability.
  • Out MO technical index is starting to scream oversold = bullish
  • Oil is higher, but price juiced by Israel/Iran war fears
  • Our most significant bearish sign - The dollar has rallied significantly 3 of the last 5 days (dollar up = stocks down)
  • Slowdowns in China & Brazil have to hurt global growth and might not yet be fully priced into stocks.

This situation does not look as traumatic as the ending of QE 2 and the nuke disaster in Japan. The MO is already at -87 and the S&P is ONLY down 3% from its high.

Every time the MO got this low over the last 3 years (and as stated above it has fallen once to -140)( It also did a double dip that was a couple week apart at the end of QE 1 in 2010) you would have come out ahead weeks to a month later.

Therefore, buying this dip, looks like the right call today.

Buying a bigger dip in the MO a better call – if it happens

NB – Of course a technical trading pattern, like the one on the MO, can be right 7 times in a row and fail the 8th.

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Paul’s Corner

Well folks don’t blame me we had almost 3 weeks warning yesterday was coming! Back on Feb 15th we had a shot across the bow where the VIX flashed a warning sign. Read Paul’s Corner from Feb 16th.

Paul’s Corner

Wait you say, that’s 1 day out of a sea of green on the charts we have been enjoying since Jan 3! My good friend and mentor Ian Woodward publishes a great blog giving you verse and examples of what was going on and what to watch for. Ian has been warning for weeks the exit light was flashing.

As I have written about several times, Ian recently found a neat way to look at the market he calls it “%B*BW“, (Percent B Times Bandwidth). The folks over on the HGSI bulletin board named Ian’s new indicator the “Woody”, it’s very simple it takes the position of an index within its Bollinger Band and multiples it by the Band Width of the Bollinger Band. When it turns yellow from green watch out!

Well the Woody once again gave us fair warning and it looks like the Woody was correct again, look at the chart of the various indexes and the Woody.

Woody Index Chart

I can’t recall how many times I have looked at a day like yesterday and thought it’s just one day, tomorrow will be better (futures are up as I write this morning). Typically we will get an up day or two and then it drops even further and before you know it we are down 6 to 8%.

The following link is for a spread sheet I put up last evening and shows the condition of the various sectors in the market. Scroll up through this past year and see how long corrections took and what sectors led the way out.

Sector Spread Sheet

Ian Woodward’s Blog from last evening pretty well sums up what we were looking at these past few weeks, it’s a good lesson.

Ian’s Blog

As Ian suggests, yesterday we had a 5 bucket down day and a 5 bucket down day is NOT to be ignored or forgotten too soon!

Tums?


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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