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Market Manipulators vs. Oil Prices vs Democracy

CNBC’s best known cheerleader for stocks, Jim Cramer, says Dow will rally 1000 points if Ka Daffy problem ends.

  • However, the Ka Daffy problem shows no sign of ending and this weekend may bring a  a far bigger event - “Day of Rage” in Saudi Arabia.
  • However, last night the UPI says this Day of Rage is postponed. Saudi’s produce almost 10 times the oil that Libya does.
  • However, Kuwait, the world’s #4 producer, just announced a protest movement
  • However, What about all the other oil dictators or Arab countries fighting for democracy

Confused by all the “However’s, “I am. Democracy is messy and ruling oligarchs/dictators will band together to crush it.

Bottom LIne For Stocks- $100+ and growing oil prices will kill any recovery. Even a Fed manipulated stock market will suffer.

Bottom Line for USAOur hypocrisy of supporting dictators for decades over democracy is already blatantly obvious to the world, as is our dependency on oil and lack of a coherent energy policy.

Bottom Line for World - A struggle for freedom, democracy and justice should be nurtured and applauded by all who cherish these concepts.

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The Below Cartoon is Also So Appropriate

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.66% down
NASDQ -1.40% up
S&P 500 -0.83% down
Russell 2000 -1.54% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Yesterday we got a semi save as the bullish manipulators tried to overcome the threat of higher oil prices. They failed.
  • If UPI report is right and the Day of Rage in SA is postponed maybe MO support level will hold (see below)
  • CNBC’s best known cheerleader for stocks, Jim Cramer, says Dow will rally 1000 points if Ka Daffy problem ends.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a meager 0.12% yesterday. Chart for last three weeks clearly bearish for dollar.   Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index and its trumping the dollar’s fall (see below) For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to  -27.88. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. MO Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Today’s the big dayFor three months the bulls have built a strong support level at -30 on the MO. Each time it has been approached it has held. We are just 2 points away. The bears have a big battering ram - oil prices over $100+ for an extended period of time.

What’s holding up the bulls is the Fed’s market manipulation, O% interest rates to the TBTF & other shadow banks and quantitative easing.

Here’s what makes this interesting  - If the stock market capitulates and the -30 falls – then the case for keeping quantitative easing becomes stronger. Also the case for intervention in Libya becomes stronger.

Fundamentals Rule - Who knows how all the freedom/democracy movements in the mid east are going to play out. But, for stocks, an important resistance level may fall on the MO and that’s Bearish

Special NoteConsidering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL at long as oil prices keep rising above $100+

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Clear 2 month pattern of bears ruling Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Took a hit yesterday as it approached former high.

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Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) Inched out to new two month high yesterday
  • RJA 1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • UCO - 1/2 position, took 6+% profit already)
  • UWM sold yesterday at 45.85 for -3% loss

A 5% trailing stop today on both REMX & RJA today.

5% trailing stop on UCO  today.

One strategy of Investors411 is to take 5+% profits on 1/2 the position and let the rest ride.

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver SLV and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back. Buy the dip to 17 DMA of SLV or DGP

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new “YOUR Stock List.”

Special Note - Considering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL at long as oil prices remain above $100+

Longer Term OutlookCAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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