Occupy Wall Street

Oakland Epicenter


More Photo/Stories of the 99% at

LINK

Oakland is the epicenter of the Occupy Wall Street Movement as protestors try to protect their first amendment rights.

Oakland’s mayor has flip flop flipped on the OWS movement.  Weak leadership (flip flopping) almost always makes a situation worse.  Here’s the Google news feed for Occupy Oakland

From Popeye in the comment section of the blog on the OWS impact.

  • “Stories about the wealth gap are now front page news.
  • Herman  Cain’s “if you’re not rich, blame yourself” is NOT resonating like it used to.
  • The discussion is focus on democracy over an elite oligarchy.
  • Change in public opinion – now even the wealthy think the 1% should pay more taxes.”


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Democracy or Crony Capitalism


The Greek PM has called for a January referendum (democracy) on  if Greece should accept the austerity measures forced on it. Or should it all be left in the shadows for a hidden elite and their politicians to decide?

One wonders, if we had the time, how the vote would have gone on the 2008 bailouts. What conditions would have been forced on banks?

Links  Robert Reiche,


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STOCKS



Will The Baby Bear Market Hang On?


We’ve had about a 5% drop in major indexes in the USA over the last two days. Will the Bears hold on? News that impacts stocks and the cute bear cub pictured above. -

  • Treasury announces a 35% increase in bonds over next 6 months ($864 billion total) Printing more $ is always short term BULLISH
  • European leaders meeting with Greek PM to discuss referendum. Killing referendum short term would be BULLISH

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Reading The Tea Leaves

  • Our secondary indicator, the Put Call Ratio is at 1.35. Well above its 50DMA which is at 1.15 = Bearish/Neutral
  • For more on MO & PCR see POSITION Section of blog (scroll down)

Technically, the one big defensive support level for the bull is @ 1225. That was broken (close 1218) but not enough bear have poured through the gap and establish a foothold. So todays close matters. Above 1225 bullish. Below 1225 bearish.

Personally, I believe in the below animation  There is no credible Euro bailout plan – Only smoke and Mirrors. But what I believe doesn’t matter.

Click on photo for video

What matters is what market movers think -giant institutions, hedge funds,uber wealthy ,sovereign funds, bankstas etc.- they move the markets and have better information than little old me. -

Do they believe the Fed and the European Central Bank has their back?  Where is the $$$ for the bailout coming from? Obviously transparency is almost non existant.

Bottom Line - My read of tea leaves is insiders know somethings up – the Central banks (our Fed and Europe’s CB) or taxpayers (privatize gains and socialize risk) will provide – otherwise why the 20+% rally off the bottom? They have let it be known that they will do whatever it takes to keep the casino/crony capitalism going.  The threatened Armageddon this time is potential the collapse of  banks, sovereign bond yields go higher, and possibly the end European Union.

Economics are also better now than they were back in July. (2.5% US GDP and China still strong) Our technicals are mildly bullish. This is a strong support level. The Fed is injecting 35% more Treasury bonds (see above)

So, at least for now, that baby bear is in trouble.


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Paul’s Corner


As I mentioned last week, Gil Morales was a guest speaker at the HSGI workshop. Gil worked as a portfolio manager for William O’Neil  (Investor’s Business Daily Publisher) and now works as a full time trader and investment adviser.

He spoke about “Pocket Pivots” and selling short. Pocket Pivots as defined by Gil are subtle changes in volume of a basing stock that can precede breakouts. Some chart providers are now including Pocket Pivots indicators. While not an indicator to use as the only buy signal it appears to be a good confirming indicator. Gil has a PDF available for download that explains Pocket Pivots.

LINK

Gil spent quite a bit of time discussing short selling. What he discussed helped me make the decision to short GMCR last week. He co-authored the book “How To Make Money Selling Stocks Short” which was published by William O’Neil.  It’s available from Amazon.com for $14. It’s a small book but it’s well written and includes lots of charts for review. If you want to learn how to properly short, this is a good resource.

Gil and his trading partner Dr. Chris Kacher recently published a book “Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple”, it has a sub title “How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market”. It looks like the new bible of high growth stock trading. It’s also available from Amazon and costs about $38.00.

I just received copies of both books from Amazon, so I have some reading to do, so for once a short Paul’s Corner.


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Positions


The following is a link to the results (so far) of YSL #5.

LINK

The results were compiled on the 29th so they are a bit out of date and do NOT reflect results of last two days. Also the dividends were not included on NLY & ABV

Remember TSU, RES, CROX, GMCR, & CPHD are now closed positions.  So the list has shrunk to 9 stocks.

Results so far since 8/11 inception

  • S&P 500 = +9.41%
  • YSL #5  = +6.50%

This is the first of 5 stock lists that is losing to the S&P. :cry:

Learning from mistakes – The BIG mistake that was made, unlike YSL #4, we did NOT close down the stock list through earnings season and we were hit with some very bad reports.

Any changes in YSL #5 will probably first be announced in the comments section.

SPY – Our other position has a stop/loss order at 1211.



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Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

Yesterday the benchmark S&P 500 closed below the 1225 support level at 1218. If it again closes below that level (confirmation day) the Long Term Outlook will change to NEUTRAL.

NEUTRAL/

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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