Welcome to the Resistance - Investors411

A blog that promotes transparency in democracy & capitalism, and beating the results of the S&P 500

Overdrive Interactive Wins

Overdrive won TWO awards last night at the Massachusetts. Innovation & Technology Exchange. The People’s Choice Award that lots of you voted on. Thanks!

Many members of the company get this blog and they are the ones who provide the tech support to keep Investors411 blog alive.   This year’s award might be posted here by the time Investors411 is published. Overdrive is a smaller company (50+) going up against giant competitors.

Both my wife and I deeply appreciate your vote, support, or work you do for our son’s company.

California Wakes Up

Congratulations to the state of California. A major win for Democracy. Instead of having a committee of politicians drawing up politically gerrymandered  districts the state will have ordinary citizens do it.

Why Obama’s Message is Blocked

Tom Friedman has an excellent editorial on what’s wrong with American media -Too Good To Check

Fox news started an unsubstantiated false rumor that Obama’s trip to India would cost us taxpayer’s $200 million a day and he was to be accompanied by 34 naval ships. This story was spread by members of congress, networks, and every right wing outlet. One Journalist alone, Anderson Cooper, checked out the facts.

A few outlets admitted their mistake but that was at least 1/100 of the time they spent bashing Obama. We even got chain emails bashing Obama on this.

This is probably why more people believe in the lie that the India, Indonesia & G20 trip cost the American tax payers billions than know Obama cut your taxes in the Stimulus bill.

Democracy dies when we vote on misinformed lies.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.57% up
NASDQ +1.55% up
S&P +1.54% up
Russell 2000 +1.85% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Yesterday Investors411 used the Wall Street term Dead Cat Bounce with a “?” It sure looks like the cats were wearing helmets yesterday. Question is – Can they get through today?

funny-cat

Stocks rallied in the first hour and held onto their gains all day = Bullish

Big news of yesterday is the GM IPO= +3.61% Historically after the first few days IPO’s fall. Then they establish a base and move with the bulls or bears.

Major story of day will hurt stocks. China raising interest rates again to keep economy from growing too fast. The rate hike was expected (big part of reason stocks moved late last and early this week), but the amount - 50 basis points and the timing today are probably not expected by investors = BEARISH

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar reverse direction and fell significantly yesterday. Fell back to what was its resistance and is now called a support level. For stocks = Neutral/Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  another  -1.10% yesterday. Major support recently broken, but rate of decline keeps decreasing = Bearish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell dramatically out of oversold territory to -30.60 = Neutral
  • 10 Year Treasury Bond (TNX) [Bonds compete with stocks for Investors. Rising TNX also signals inflation. Rising yields bad for stocks] Fell throughout the day but moved =1.33% higher For stocks = Neutral/Bearish

Reading The Tea Leaves -

The Forecasting indexes have changed to mostly Neutral & its the confirmation day after  big rally. China news is going to hurt.

From yesterday in brownThree paths in descending order of preference.

  • Yes the bottom -TJX (Target) had a great earnings report and outlook. Oversold markets & 50DMA support levels hold. GM IPO energizes markets
  • We’re in for an acceptable 5 to 10% consolidation after a nine week bull run with a S&P support level of 1130. (SPX now at 1179)
  • A double dip recession is out there and Investors will soon realize the horror as foreclosures rise, Europe falls apart

The problem here is – if you combine choices the more bearish choices #s 2 & 3, are larger than #1.

The GM deal with a potential strong Christmas season and QE2′s print & dump could swing an oversold market. – It did. Today is a confirmation day for yesterday’s big rally but the China news is going to hurt.

  • Stocks remain flat or go higher = confirmation & good
  • Stocks loose up to 1/2 their previous days gains = fair
  • Stocks loose more than 1/2 the gain = bad
  • Stocks loose all gains or more = duck and cover

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

  • EEM – (Emerging Markets ETF)

Short term Traders. – See no clear advantage to a trade today, although momentum is with the bulls.

Investors. [From yesterday in brown] The MO goes below -60 buying becomes a much better option. Twice in the last 3 years the MO has reached -130. So you could loose out especially if there is a double dip recession. So I started small and nibbled on a little EEM (emerging market ETF) A  position at 45.28 Willing to accept a 7 or 8% loss on this. If we keep going lower I’m going to add some more EEM and country specific ETF’s on dips. (See POSITIONS Section of blog.)

Investors411 main strategy is to “buy the dip” in a positively trending market. When panic is in the street we buy.

I think the chances of a double dip recession are remote, but a flatline US economy coupled with (right now over heated) growing emerging markets is more possible.

Long Term Outlook has been changed back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH from NEUTRAL. It will remain there unless the major US indexes fall back below their 50 day moving averages of pice (see charts on top right of blog) CAUTION – We are on the cusp of change so Long Term Outlook might flip flop for a while.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark