PINK Ribbon Friday

At 4:15 AM EST I dropped my wife off at the starting point for the 3 day, 60 mile, in what will be 100+ degree temperature  Susan G Komen “Race for the Cure”  in a Boston suburb.

To all of you who have contributed to my wife’s or one of my daughter’s efforts (First Descents) to raise money and/or awareness of Cancer THANKS. For all YOU do to help others, no matter what the cause, (and lots of  YOU do far more than we do) another thanks.

_______________

YOUR Comments

Often, like yesterday, the Comment Section (scroll down) comes alive with Stock Concepts (see Paul & The Critic) and political debates/information. The follow comment and reply have stirred some passions and thought provoking concepts.

From Popeye -

Paul –  So many misguided Americans fall into the trap created by the wealthy oligarchy that controls the media. 2008 is the example of them privatizing the gains and socializing the losses. (Barr’s phrase)

Shadow banks etc. stole or manipulate trillions to themselves and their friends. Instead of focusing anger on those who caused the 2008 meltdown and steal trillions, the right wing media has  many Americans blaming each other, hating each other, fear mongering each other and fighting to divide the SCRAPS left on the table.

Hate the teachers, hate the government workers, hate the unions, hate the seniors who get social security, hate the cops. They’re responsible for the 2008 meltdown and all the jobs going overseas. – WRONG

I back those who are willing to work, and if being a liberal means that millionaires and billionaires should pay more for the damage they have cause then I’m a Liberal.

What the oligarchy wants is to eviscerate government to nothing. Then without any check and balance they can squeeze what remains of the American middle class out of existence and replace us with the Chinese consumer.

Reply From JS

Popeye,
You don’t have to be a Liberal to hate the banksters, and how they got away with it all. I guess you think the NYTimes and the liberal media that I mentioned are controlled by the right wing oligarchs.


How did you, Barr, Paul and others get the info you refer to? You got it because you’re not lazy. So the big battle is who will control, influence the “great unwashed”?  Did they vote for Obama? I guess the right didn’t control the media or unwashed during that election. The right only controls the media  when the Reps win? The Dems can raise mucho dinero; look at all Obama has raised so far this cycle, even though the Wall street tycoons are cool to him this time. How about the 2008 election, who raised the most? The question, I believe, with all the money out there for the left, is why can’t they have a competitive cable outlet. What happened to Air America? This question has to be faced by the left. Are they that incompetent?

_______________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.21% Up
NASDQ +0.72% Up
S&P 500 +1.35% Up
Russell 2000 +1.07% -

_______________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Winner Winner Chicken Diner (the expression one of you uses in the comments section of the blog.) Every technical analyst out there sees major, increased, & above average volume on a significant upside day for US stock indexes. This follows an earlier major increase this week. All these analyst are telling their clients the rally has been confirmed
  • Repeat – Yesterday (2 days ago) was the confirmation day of Tuesday’s big rally. What we got is a weak confirmation – a slight decline but in weak volume. Technically this is a wee bit bullish. Yesterday the wee bit bull turned into a big time bull

  • As mentioned two weeks ago “If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.” However, it matters what investors worldwide think of our political/economic system. That confidence was shaken in 2008. Idiot politicians can further destroy this confidence with their inability to compromise.
  • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below -
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +20.35 (+30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought, +90 OMG overbought). The more overbought we get the better the chance for a reversal to the downside) Still lots of room for MO to move higher or lower. Last high almost 3 weeks ago was +90. Current Level = Neutral
  • $USD The Dollar fell a massive -1.04% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Not only was the fall massive, but the price chart shows we broke through a month+ long support level. Very bearish for dollar, but for stocks = Bullish
  • Reading The Tea Leaves Solid earnings in tech stocks is bullish.
  • NB - There is also reason to believe that major US based International Corporations will do well or won’t suffer badly even if the US defaults in the short term. Main Street and our financial credibility will suffer far more with inflation, especially in the long term. Major globalized companies (example APPL, CAT, etc.) will benefit from the devaluation of the dollar. Their goods will cost less with a falling dollar.
  • Also, any default will cause chaos in the bond market and drive some of that cash into stocks. Clearly stocks should suffer, but the point is they may not take a big a hit as bonds, housing prices, and other asset groups more directly impacted by inflation/interest rates

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • May 20th forecast still relevant. However Technically the strong volume confirms the rally (see above explanation) and has changed the long term outlook to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. Caution – Changes in long term outlook are subject to change because the trend is not yet firmly established.
  • Repeat - It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki Dance over the debt will end. Therefore, hanging in their with a NEUTRAL Long Term Forecast. However, perception favors bulls.
  • Caution – This market is still dominated by High Frequency Traders and Central Banks.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

This sections needs to catch up with changing events – See stock lists of Paul & The Critic in yesterday’s comment section of the blog (scroll down)

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

All the blow concepts are at least, in part,  considered of the potential of a US default

GLD & SLV – Sorry again did NOT pull trigger on this trade. See yesterday’s comments section of blog.

UDN & UUP - Considering holding UDN – An ETF that shorts  the dollar. Another possibility in “Puts” on UUP – An ETF that is double long the dollar. Shoulda, Woulda Coulda – Both these trades and BZF moved in the right direction. Waiting or a dip.

BZF - ETF that tracks Brazil’s currency.

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF of a major index and a couple of dividend stocks. I dropped one short position yesterday. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

I firmly believe you can make money with BOTH long term investments and short term trades.

See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

Don’t forget to send in your stock choices fro our new Stock List #5

Deadline Friday 4:00PM EST

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

  • Share/Save/Bookmark