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Positions

If you are looking at this page for the first time about the worst thing you could do is immediately adopt the below positions.  This would be like cashing all out or all into the stock market at once. Be gradual. Pick your spots, buy the dips , and move toward a definite position slowly. Rash moves all in one direction are way too risky and usually made out of panic .

A broad List of results since 2002 can be found at the bottom of this section

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Long Term Outlook =

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Outlook downgraded on 5/20 from CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH to NEUTRAL

Upgrade on 10/24 back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

and back to NEUTRAL on 12/14

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies.

The Fed in November has again expanded money supply globally.

See Nov. 29th Investors411

On a 1 to 5 scale NEUTRAL is #3 out of 5. [Please check daily blog - Long Term Outlook may have changed and NOT yet been posted here]

Forecast for 2011

(Written 1/5/11)

Economically the same as 2009 & 2010- “The problem in the financial sector is far far far far far bigger than first imagined. Impact of this mess is going to take years to resolve.

The 2008 over leveraged casino capitalism of shadow financial institutions has dramatically altered  major worldwide trends. Hopefully this will return to normal.  However right now the fix instituted by world governments and especially the US congress does NOT solve problem of over leveraged casino capitalism.

STOCKS – Again the same as last year “Because the US is in a bad way economically and structurally (financial laws and enforcement) does NOT mean stocks will do poorly.”

• The 2009 Stimulus,  the 2010 Tax compromise have helped stabilize economic losses in USA. Low interest rates and quantitative easing and other measures are all stimulating stock price growth.
• No real Shadow banking reform by US congress or world organizations, few regulators watching financials, opaque accounting, low interest rates from Fed, and quantitative easing  -  contributing to another growing over leveraged bubble.
• Emerging market’s continue to grow at extremely high rates. American companies proved jobs in these markets and use their growing consumer base for profits.
• Quantitative easing #2 instituted in November 1010 will last till June 30th. When that is over the training wheels come off, or we have QE #3
• Inflation is probably  going to be the end result of the US & worldwide liquidity tsunami used to combat the recession. But no inflation is in sight in the USA now.

Investors411 looks for a much better first 1/2 of 2011 than a second half especially in US stocks.

We are in a Fed liquidity driven economic cycle (0% interest rates and Quantitative Easing’s additional liquidity pushing new money that want’s higher returns into stocks)

NB – This section goes hand in glove with the STRATEGY section and daily remarks/comments on blog.  All involve TIMING – knowing when to hold & when to fold.

On 2/14 Investors coined the term Bubble-icious stock market – We have entered an expanding Fed manipulated/managed liquidity bubble. The longer the bubble builds the bigger the pop if it bursts. Perhaps it will take a QE 3, 4 & 5 before popping but at some time the training wheels have to come off the bike.

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Investors411

Model Portfolios

This section Updated throughout year

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This is NOT your parent’s buy and hold forever market. The USA is running “casino  capitalism” where risk is all but ignored by major too big to fail corporations and subsidized by taxpayers. Timing and awareness of trends becomes even more essential to investing on both a macro and micro level.

The following are 4 suggested portfolio’s. The later two are actively commented on and/or managed in the daily blog.

#1 - The Conservative Portfolio.

This is for the more conservative investor. These kinds of stocks/ETF’s usually outperform  in NEUTRAL or BEARISH trending markets. Why they work is they provide two money streams. Hopefully, stock appreciation & the dividend.

ETF’s

• First Trust Morningstar Div Leaders Idx (FDL), which has an overall yield of 4.38% and includes AT&T, Chevron and Verizon in its top holdings.
• WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financials (DTN), which has a yield of 4.01% and includes Qwest Communications and Altria Group in its top holdings.
• I Shares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY), which has an overall yield of 3.79% and includes Lorillard Inc., Entergy Corporation and Chevron in its top holdings. (list  again from Seeking Alpha)

The above section was written in 9/10/10 and yields may differ.

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#2 The Moderate Portfolio.

This consists of using ETF’s (market baskets of stocks) that mirror Major US and Foreign stock indexes and 5 star (highest rating) no load mutual funds. One of the key’s here is diversity across countries and size of companies. There are other ways to diversify but these are perhaps the most basic.

This portfolio is designed to mirror the S&P 500, but give you diversity.

Why ETF’s

• They are traded like stocks. So you can sell them immediately if a major crisis hits or place a stop/sell order on them.
• They are not actively managed and therefore have no hidden fees, no management costs and less of a tax cost.

Basic ETF’s – Below are listed some major ETF’s – there are also many companies that have similar funds. These are the the most liquid I know for each category. Below is a group that represents a diversified category.

• QQQQ – Mirrors NASDQ
• SPY – Mirrors S&P500
• DIA – Mirrors Dow
• IWM – Mirrors Russell 2000(small cap stocks)
• EEM – Emerging Market Countries  (Currently having Inflation problems )
• DBC – Broad based Commodities
• USO – oil
• GLD – gold

5 Star Mutual Funds

Morningstar lists the best performing mutual funds over different periods of time.  Five star are the best. Since major meltdowns occur Investors411 looks are more recent results as better forecasts of future results. Brokers like Fidelity will also provide you with a list of these mutual funds.

Funds are divided in many categories. But to keep it simple you should diversify among large cap, medium cap and small cap funds. Also a foreign fund that does emerging markets and/or global stocks & a basic commodity ETF is suggested.

Caution on mutual funds – Hidden fees, loads and taxes can dramatically cut profits. Also, successful managers can be changed in an instant. Read the fine print & watch for managerial changes.

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#2A Dividend Stocks (Last update 7/3)

Many thanks to “The Critic” and several other subsrcibers for helping compile this section

Dividend stock provide two streams of income and are usually long term holdings. Two consideration for additions to the below lists.

• Price consistancy and growth
• Dividend consistancy and growth

Lists.

• top ten dividend stocks from author at Seeking Alpha
• Dow’s top 10 dividend stocks

The Ultra high growth group Caution - Higher risk/higher reward This group often deals with derivatives. They take periodic hits often associated with the date you have to own the stock to get the dividend for the quarter. May 16th Investors411 LINK to more info

• NLY Annaly Capital Management has returned a relatively steady dividend @13% to 14+% dividend over 14 quarters. By far the biggest stock in group.
• AGNC American capital agency corporations  3 year old public firm that has raised then had a steady 19% dividend for the last 7 quarters
• Some of the competition HTS, MFA, IVR, CYS, ANH – double digit dividend returns

4% to 10% Annual Dividend group . A May 16th LINK to more information. Another LINK for May 9th.

Cautions -

• dividend amounts are subject to change each quarter and these numbers are relatively accurate as of mid May.
• Some of these have better growth and some better dividends.
• It’s always good to diversify among sectors.
• Always try for dividend stocks that have 50 day price moving averages (blue line on chart) moving up or at least flat. Perhaps a minimum requirement  should be the 200 day moving average should be moving higher (red line on chart) This is not always possible in bear markets.
• The 50 dma should be above the 200 dma or look like its about to move in that direction.
• Buy the dip.

Dividend amount per annum posted after ticker symbol. Ticker symbols link to charts.

• KMP – 6.11% – Limited partnership – Tax considerations here to consider before buying. Energy
• T –5.50% – Phone company and a big one.
• WIN – 7.42% – Phone company and a small one with higher dividend.
• SNH –6.63%  Buys senior properties.
• DUK – 5.24% Utility
• D – 4.09% Utility
• PGN – 5.27% Utility
• HCN 5.58% – Health Care REIT
• MO – 5.64% – Cigarettes
• HTD – 5+% An ETF from John Hancock – Some tax advantages here.
• BMO – 4.48% Canadian Bank
• ABV – 4.58% Brazilian beer

Below 4% but with price growth potential

• CVX – 3.03% - Oil Company with small dividend. Much better than Exxon because it buys back far less of its stock to prop up stock price.
• MCD –3.10 – Giant Retail Food Company with smaller dividend.
• PM – 3.73% – International cigarettes (less subject to US lawsuit)
• GIS – 2.90% – Giant food company

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#3 Aggressive ETF’s & ETN’s

List of some ETF’s that have been used or are under consideration below

This is NOT a suggested portfolio

• Many of the trades involve timing (see STRATEGY section)
• Stops & Trailing Stop orders are used on many positions..
• This year Investors411 recommends that commodities be a significant part of the aggressive portfolio.

UCO -(2x oil prices*) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. Historically driving season in summer drives prices up in the late spring. Supply problems exist because of revolutions/instability in oil producing countries. If these problems are resolved then UCO should NOT be held.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  Simply put because of limited supply of rare earth metals and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. Only some sort of major economic collapse will hurt this sector. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold* ) and/or SLV (silver). AGQ (2x silver*) Both inflation worries and a falling dollar positively impact this sector. Silver actually has a manufacturing component.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS

UWM (2x small cap stocks*) or TNA (3X small cap stocks*) The later for more aggressive traders. Closest correlation to MO and falling dollar. Small cap stocks are outperforming.

EEM (emerging markets) and/or ILF (Latin America) EDC (3X emerging markets*) The later for most aggressive traders. Emerging markets are leading the world and after underperforming for years they are back.

*CAUTION – Leveraged ETF’s Degrade, Depend on Volatility, amount of leverage, rebalancing and other factors come into play the longer you hold them. Just because something says its double short or long doesn’t make it so. This is especially true starting on day 2 of ownership and beyond.

For more read all this before investing – LINK

For a  complete list  of leveraged ETF’s (both long and short)  see

• ProShares - LINK
• Direxion - LINK

Since MAY 20th downgrade these short ETF have been recommended

Frequently used ETF’s that short the market See downgrade on 5/20 LINK

• SH (Short the S&P 500)
• SDS (2x short S&P 500*)
• TZA (3x short small cap stocks*)
• More sophisticated investors can place calls on these two ETF’s or puts on long ETF’s

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#4 YOUR Stock List (Updated 11/29)

This is the highest risk of the  alternatives offered. Most of these stocks are chosen for their growth potential and do better in bull and often flat markets.

YOUR stock list is generated by readers who send in companies that they like and have an upward moving 50 Day Moving Average of price. From the submissions  about 12 to 16 stocks make up t the final list. A few stocks may be added to this list by Paul R & I before list is complete.

Many thanks to Paul R for his work on the YSL’s this year

YOUR stock list may be looked at as a whole or an place to get ideas for individual stock selections. Like everything Investors411 does it is first an EDUCATIONAL tool.

• YOUR first Stock List went up @ 24% from 2/11 to 4/20 vs @ 11% for the S&P.
• YOUR second Stock List went  up @ 26% from 8/4 to 11/5  vs.  @9% for S&P
• YOUR third Stock List went up @ 12.07% from 11/22 to 1/22 vs @8.95% for S&P
• YSL #4 kept open over earnings season and closed on 2/11 up 18.69% vs S&P up 12.39%. (A clerical error was made and later YSL may appear in blog as earlier numbers ex. YSL #5 referred to as YSL #4)
• YSL #5 closed on 5/20 up 3.64% vs. 1.60% for S&P 500 (Updated 6/30)  A spreadsheet of YSL #5
• YSL #6 closed on 9/11 up 6.50 vs. 9.50% for S&P 500 – The only YSL to lose to the D&P.

Additional notes on YSL’s (updated 8/20/11)

• Thanks to everyone who participated – Without your help there would be no list.

• The whole idea of this is to educate YOU into becoming a better investor

• Be careful of chasing over extended stocks - Stocks too far above their 50 DMA’s or 17 DMA’s

• Ticker Symbols are linked to charts. You can adjust chart to different time periods.

• Stocks are NOT listed in any order of preference.

• The first four  stock lists ran 2 to 3 months.

• We have tried to diversify by industry group

• Overall strategy is to buy the dip of trending stocks

• Many of the stocks were chosen because they did not do as badly as most other stocks when the markets sank over the last month and/or recovered faster.

• We hope this List  again beats the S&P 500. But the S&P may go down and so can YSL #5

• My favorite way of looking this is to choose a handful of stocks and buy when the MO dips. The lower the better

• Paul often comments on these stocks daily in the comments section of the blog.

Obviously we can’t guarantee anything and you take this advice at your own risk

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

YSL 2012

A more actively managed stock list.

See Paul’s Updates in the Comments Section

Updated 01/05/12

Link to Data result chart of 1/5/12

AKRX Akorn, Inc. engages in the manufacture and marketing of diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceutical products, hospital drugs, and injectable pharmaceuticals in the United States and internationally. It offers products in various specialty areas, including ophthalmology, antidotes, anti-infectives, pain management, anesthesia, and vaccines.

BKI - Buckeye Technologies

CATM Cardtronics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides automated consumer financial services through its network of automated teller machines (ATMs) and multi-function financial services kiosks. As of June 30, 2011, it offered services to approximately 37,800 devices across its portfolio, which included approximately 31,600 devices located in 50 states of the United States,

CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in the United States. It also operates restaurants in Toronto, Canada and in London, the United Kingdom. As of October 20, 2011, it operated 1,100 restaurants. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. (Now serving the former middle class!)

ENB Enbridge Inc

FTK Flotek Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies drilling and production related products and services to the energy and mining industries in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Chemicals, Drilling, and Artificial Lift. The Chemicals segment designs, develops, manufactures, packages, and markets specialty chemicals used by oilfield service companies in oil and natural gas well drilling, cementing, stimulation, and production activities

HANS Hansen Natural Corporation, through its subsidiaries, develops, markets, sells, and distributes beverages in the United States and internationally. It offers non-carbonated ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonades, juice cocktails, single-serve juices and fruit beverages, ready-to-drink dairy and coffee drinks, energy drinks, sports drinks, single-serve still water, sparkling juices, and flavored sparkling beverages.

IBM International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides information technology (IT) products and services worldwide. Its Global Technology Services segment provides IT infrastructure and business process services, including strategic outsourcing, process, integrated technology, and maintenance services, as well as technology-based support services.

KOG - Kodiak Oil & Gas

MA MasterCard Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, provides transaction processing and related services to customers principally in support of their credit, deposit access, electronic cash and automated teller machine payment card programs, and travelers’ cheque programs. Its payment solutions include payment programs, marketing, product development, technology, processing, and consulting and information services.

SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, a fabless semiconductor company, designs, develops, and supplies a portfolio of multimedia data processing, storage, and transfer solutions primarily for consumer electronics applications. The company offers a range of microcontrollers for use in NAND flash memory storage products, including flash memory cards, USB flash drives, and embedded flash and solid state drives.

SWI SolarWinds, Inc. (It’s NOT a solar company) designs, develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure management software to IT professionals. The company offers free tools, including desktop, laptop, or server-based applications designed for use by individual IT professionals focused on a single network or infrastructure management task;

TSCO Tractor Supply Company operates retail farm and ranch stores in the United States. Its stores offer a selection of merchandise, including equine, pet, and animal products, such as items required for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, including lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; maintenance products for agricultural and rural use; and work/recreational clothing and footwear.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING