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Positions

,

Love him or hate him

[The FED]

It does not matter.

What’s most Important

in stock analysis is realizing

Central Banks Powers to

Manipulating Stocks Higher

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If you are looking at this page for the first time about the worst thing you could do is immediately adopt the below positions.  This would be like cashing all out or all into the stock market at once. Be gradual. Pick your spots, buy the dips , and move toward a definite position slowly. Rash moves all in one direction are way too risky and usually made out of panic .

A broad List of results since 2002 can be found at the bottom of this section

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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Long Term Outlook =


NEUTRAL/

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH – At start of 2012

For 2nd 1/2 of 2012

Above LTO updated 7/1/12 -

See daily blog for current update


Forecast for 2012

Compiled 1/26/2012

The 2012 has a lot to do with where we’ve been, politics, Central bank manipulation and trends that dominate economics.

The same opening sentence as the last 3 years The problem in the financial sector is far far far far far bigger than first imagined. & “The 2008 over leveraged casino capitalism gambling of shadow financial institutions has dramatically altered  major worldwide trends”

We no longer run a financial/banking system run on capitalism but one based on “extraction” and papered over/covered up by government printing presses.

World wide there is a massive $600 trillion private opaque casino (Credit Default Swaps or Derivatives market) where wealthy connected investors & institutions take YOUR money and over leverage it in hidden unregulated amounts/bets. This whole scenerio was covered in detail Feb 13 thought 27th. You’ll have to read those posts to fill in the blanks.

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The Fed (our central bank) balance sheet is  at at $2,889,134,000,000 and the ECB balance sheet stood at @3,550,000,000,000 ay the start of the year

Bottom Line - Besides other smaller measures throughout the world (like TARP, Stimulus Plans, Tax cuts, bailouts, austerity) over $6.5000,000,000,000 ($6.5 trillion) has also been used to paper over the ongoing problem of over leveraged too big to fail, unregulated, casino wealth  ”extraction” system. This is the tip of the Central Bank loans.


The financial system we have built since 1998 when regulation began to be eliminated most closely resembles communism. A banking system where the privilaged made money and the losses charged to or absorbed (printing $$$) by the government (in this case YOU)

Gains are privatized by the “bankstas” & risk socialized by you.

in the 2008 meltdown was the first major warning of the instability of our financial system and now the European debt crisis is another.

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Stock TRENDS

2012

Currency manipulation & money printing has a huge impact on stocks and bond prices.

Example – When one of the big Fed money printing program ended (quantitative easing)  stocks suffered badly last year. The same for 2010.

The current focus for traders/investors is the impact of the world’s casino financial system on European debt.

Throughout 2012 Investors411 has used the 10 year Italian bond rate as its “canary in the coal mine.” If the bond rate yield reaches 7% (unsustainable) then traders will start to panic.

Since it is below 5.5% on 2/24, its an all clear for markets to move higher.

Therefore, Investors411 has maintained a CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Stock Outlook for early 2012.

NB – There are very NEGATIVE long term consequences to privatizing gains for a few and socializing the risk for you. But the focus  here is on stocks.

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Stocks, Sectors

for 2012


The 2012 Your Stock List may be found at the bottom of this page.


Outlook for second

1/2 of 2012

This section updated 7/1

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Four significant factors have forced a  downgrade from the CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH start of 2012 . (see daily blog posts for more)

  • European Fiscal Problems far from solution
  • China slowdown growing
  • No stabilization or containment of over leveraging of banking sector
  • Uncertainty over presidential elections

Even though the Fed has continued “Operation Twist” the economic drag is going to hurt stocks. The continuation of Operation Twist (Let’s call is a milder liquidity manipulation than Quantitative Easing) is again going to force money seeking more than a 0% return into stocks.

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The key for globalized markets,

for the last 4 years,

is central banks intervention or manipulation

of currency, interest rates, money supply

and, therefore, stock markets.

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At the end of June, A far more just European bailout (NO AUSTERITY STRINGS ATTACHED) has altered what was starting to be a very negative worldwide stock trend. If there is similar follow through we should see a modest rally in equities from current levels. If we see  a major move by the Fed like QE 3 we would see a modest rally.

Always remember – Until there is a solution to the over leveraging of too big to fail banks and the plutocracy buying democracy we are at risk of sudden economic meltdowns.

Dividend stocks again look like the place to be.

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Forecast for 2011

(Written 1/5/11)

Economically the same as 2009 & 2010- The problem in the financial sector is far far far far far bigger than first imagined. Impact of this mess is going to take years to resolve.

The 2008 over leveraged casino capitalism of shadow financial institutions has dramatically altered  major worldwide trends. Hopefully this will return to normal.  However right now the fix instituted by world governments and especially the US congress does NOT solve problem of over leveraged casino capitalism.

STOCKSAgain the same as last year “Because the US is in a bad way economically and structurally (financial laws and enforcement) does NOT mean stocks will do poorly.”

  • The 2009 Stimulus,  the 2010 Tax compromise have helped stabilize economic losses in USA. Low interest rates and quantitative easing and other measures are all stimulating stock price growth.
  • No real Shadow banking reform by US congress or world organizations, few regulators watching financials, opaque accounting, low interest rates from Fed, and quantitative easing  -  contributing to another growing over leveraged bubble.
  • Emerging market’s continue to grow at extremely high rates. American companies proved jobs in these markets and use their growing consumer base for profits.
  • Quantitative easing #2 instituted in November 1010 will last till June 30th. When that is over the training wheels come off, or we have QE #3
  • Inflation is probably  going to be the end result of the US & worldwide liquidity tsunami used to combat the recession. But no inflation is in sight in the USA now.

Investors411 looks for a much better first 1/2 of 2011 than a second half especially in US stocks.

We are in a Fed liquidity driven economic cycle (0% interest rates and Quantitative Easing’s additional liquidity pushing new money that want’s higher returns into stocks)

NB – This section goes hand in glove with the STRATEGY section and daily remarks/comments on blog.  All involve TIMING – knowing when to hold & when to fold.

On 2/14 Investors coined the term Bubble-icious stock market – We have entered an expanding Fed manipulated/managed liquidity bubble. The longer the bubble builds the bigger the pop if it bursts. Perhaps it will take a QE 3, 4 & 5 before popping but at some time the training wheels have to come off the bike.


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Investors411

Model Portfolios

for 2011

This section Updated throughout year

2011 means LAST year

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This is NOT your parent’s buy and hold forever market. The USA is running “casino  capitalism” where risk is all but ignored by major too big to fail corporations and subsidized by taxpayers. Timing and awareness of trends becomes even more essential to investing on both a macro and micro level.

The following are 4 suggested portfolio’s. The later two are actively commented on and/or managed in the daily blog.

#1 - The Conservative Portfolio.

This is for the more conservative investor. These kinds of stocks/ETF’s usually outperform  in NEUTRAL or BEARISH trending markets. Why they work is they provide two money streams. Hopefully, stock appreciation & the dividend.

ETF’s

  • First Trust Morningstar Div Leaders Idx (FDL), which has an overall yield of 4.38% and includes AT&T, Chevron and Verizon in its top holdings.
  • WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financials (DTN), which has a yield of 4.01% and includes Qwest Communications and Altria Group in its top holdings.
  • I Shares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY), which has an overall yield of 3.79% and includes Lorillard Inc., Entergy Corporation and Chevron in its top holdings. (list  again from Seeking Alpha)

The above section was written in 9/10/10 and yields may differ.

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#2 The Moderate Portfolio.

This consists of using ETF’s (market baskets of stocks) that mirror Major US and Foreign stock indexes and 5 star (highest rating) no load mutual funds. One of the key’s here is diversity across countries and size of companies. There are other ways to diversify but these are perhaps the most basic.

This portfolio is designed to mirror the S&P 500, but give you diversity.

Why ETF’s

  • They are traded like stocks. So you can sell them immediately if a major crisis hits or place a stop/sell order on them.
  • They are not actively managed and therefore have no hidden fees, no management costs and less of a tax cost.

Basic ETF’s – Below are listed some major ETF’s – there are also many companies that have similar funds. These are the the most liquid I know for each category. Below is a group that represents a diversified category.

  • QQQQ – Mirrors NASDQ
  • SPY – Mirrors S&P500
  • DIA – Mirrors Dow
  • IWM – Mirrors Russell 2000(small cap stocks)
  • EEM – Emerging Market Countries  (Currently having Inflation problems )
  • DBC – Broad based Commodities
  • USO – oil
  • GLD – gold

5 Star Mutual Funds

Morningstar lists the best performing mutual funds over different periods of time.  Five star are the best. Since major meltdowns occur Investors411 looks are more recent results as better forecasts of future results. Brokers like Fidelity will also provide you with a list of these mutual funds.

Funds are divided in many categories. But to keep it simple you should diversify among large cap, medium cap and small cap funds. Also a foreign fund that does emerging markets and/or global stocks & a basic commodity ETF is suggested.

Caution on mutual funds – Hidden fees, loads and taxes can dramatically cut profits. Also, successful managers can be changed in an instant. Read the fine print & watch for managerial changes.

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#2A Dividend Stocks (Last update 7/3/11)

Many thanks to “The Critic” and several other subsrcibers for helping compile this section

Dividend stock provide two streams of income and are usually long term holdings. Two consideration for additions to the below lists.

  • Price consistancy and growth
  • Dividend consistancy and growth

Lists.

The Ultra high growth group Caution - Higher risk/higher reward This group often deals with derivatives. They take periodic hits often associated with the date you have to own the stock to get the dividend for the quarter. May 16th Investors411 LINK to more info

  • NLY Annaly Capital Management has returned a relatively steady dividend @13% to 14+% dividend over 14 quarters. By far the biggest stock in group.
  • AGNC American capital agency corporations  3 year old public firm that has raised then had a steady 19% dividend for the last 7 quarters
  • Some of the competition HTS, MFA, IVR, CYS, ANH – double digit dividend returns

4% to 10% Annual Dividend group . A May 16th LINK to more information. Another LINK for May 9th.

Cautions -

  • dividend amounts are subject to change each quarter and these numbers are relatively accurate as of mid May.
  • Some of these have better growth and some better dividends.
  • It’s always good to diversify among sectors.
  • Always try for dividend stocks that have 50 day price moving averages (blue line on chart) moving up or at least flat. Perhaps a minimum requirement  should be the 200 day moving average should be moving higher (red line on chart) This is not always possible in bear markets.
  • The 50 dma should be above the 200 dma or look like its about to move in that direction.
  • Buy the dip.

Dividend amount per annum posted after ticker symbol. Ticker symbols link to charts.

  • KMP – 6.11% – Limited partnership – Tax considerations here to consider before buying. Energy
  • T –5.50% – Phone company and a big one.
  • SNH –6.63%  Buys senior properties.
  • DUK – 5.24% Utility
  • D – 4.09% Utility
  • PGN – 5.27% Utility
  • VZ - 4.48% Telecom
  • T – 5.05% Telecom
  • HCN 5.58% – Health Care REIT
  • MO – 5.64% – Cigarettes
  • HTD5+% An ETF from John Hancock – Some tax advantages here.
  • BMO – 4.48% Canadian Bank
  • ABV4.58% Brazilian beer

Below 4% but with price growth potential

  • CVX3.03% - Oil Company with small dividend. Much better than Exxon because it buys back far less of its stock to prop up stock price.
  • MCD –3.10 – Giant Retail Food Company with smaller dividend.
  • PM – 3.73% – International cigarettes (less subject to US lawsuit)
  • GIS – 2.90% – Giant food company

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#3 Aggressive ETF’s & ETN’s


List of some ETF’s that have been used or are under consideration below

This is NOT a suggested portfolio

  • Many of the trades involve timing (see STRATEGY section)
  • Stops & Trailing Stop orders are used on many positions..
  • This year Investors411 recommends that commodities be a significant part of the aggressive portfolio.

Below are the recommended ETF’s/ETN’s

  • Since many of these choices are not directly related to stocks on the NYSE the MO & the Dollar may influence them differently.
  • Buy the dip is a recommended strategy (Investors411 likes the 17, and 50 DM’s) Especially don’t buy when stock is too far above 17 DMA
  • A 7% to 10% trailing stop loss is recommended
  • World events impact these sectors
  • Investors411 believes these sectors should outperform the S&P 500 now through June 30
  • Investors411 expects, baring a change in world events, a higher S&P 500 on June 30th.  Emerging markets and US small caps stocks are especially vulnerable to any meltdown of the S&P.
  • See homepage to see if investments in ETF’s are being made at this time


UCO -(2x oil prices*) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. Historically driving season in summer drives prices up in the late spring. Supply problems exist because of revolutions/instability in oil producing countries. If these problems are resolved then UCO should NOT be held.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  Simply put because of limited supply of rare earth metals and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. Only some sort of major economic collapse will hurt this sector. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold* ) and/or SLV (silver). AGQ (2x silver*) Both inflation worries and a falling dollar positively impact this sector. Silver actually has a manufacturing component.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS

UWM (2x small cap stocks*) or TNA (3X small cap stocks*) The later for more aggressive traders. Closest correlation to MO and falling dollar. Small cap stocks are outperforming.

EEM (emerging markets) and/or ILF (Latin America) EDC (3X emerging markets*) The later for most aggressive traders. Emerging markets are leading the world and after underperforming for years they are back.

*CAUTIONLeveraged ETF’s Degrade, Depend on Volatility, amount of leverage, rebalancing and other factors come into play the longer you hold them. Just because something says its double short or long doesn’t make it so. This is especially true starting on day 2 of ownership and beyond.

For more read all this before investingLINK

For a  complete list  of leveraged ETF’s (both long and short)  see

Since MAY 20th downgrade these short ETF have been recommended

Frequently used ETF’s that short the market See downgrade on 5/20 LINK

  • SH (Short the S&P 500)
  • SDS (2x short S&P 500*)
  • TZA (3x short small cap stocks*)
  • More sophisticated investors can place calls on these two ETF’s or puts on long ETF’s


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#4 YOUR Stock List (Updated 11/29)

This is the highest risk of the  alternatives offered. Most of these stocks are chosen for their growth potential and do better in bull and often flat markets.

YOUR stock list is generated by readers who send in companies that they like and have an upward moving 50 Day Moving Average of price. From the submissions  about 12 to 16 stocks make up t the final list. A few stocks may be added to this list by Paul R & I before list is complete.

Many thanks to Paul R for his work on the YSL’s this year

YOUR stock list may be looked at as a whole or an place to get ideas for individual stock selections. Like everything Investors411 does it is first an EDUCATIONAL tool.

  • YOUR first Stock List went up @ 24% from 2/11 to 4/20 vs @ 11% for the S&P.
  • YOUR second Stock List went  up @ 26% from 8/4 to 11/5  vs.  @9% for S&P
  • YOUR third Stock List went up @ 12.07% from 11/22 to 1/22 vs @8.95% for S&P
  • YSL #4 kept open over earnings season and closed on 2/11 up 18.69% vs S&P up 12.39%. (A clerical error was made and later YSL may appear in blog as earlier numbers ex. YSL #5 referred to as YSL #4)
  • YSL #5 closed on 5/20 up 3.64% vs. 1.60% for S&P 500 (Updated 6/30)  A spreadsheet of YSL #5
  • YSL #6 closed on 9/11 up 6.50 vs. 9.50% for S&P 500 – The only YSL to lose to the D&P.

Additional notes on YSL’s (updated 8/20/11)

  • Thanks to everyone who participated – Without your help there would be no list.
  • The whole idea of this is to educate YOU into becoming a better investor
  • Be careful of chasing over extended stocks - Stocks too far above their 50 DMA’s or 17 DMA’s
  • Ticker Symbols are linked to charts. You can adjust chart to different time periods.
  • Stocks are NOT listed in any order of preference.
  • The first four  stock lists ran 2 to 3 months.
  • We have tried to diversify by industry group
  • Overall strategy is to buy the dip of trending stocks
  • Many of the stocks were chosen because they did not do as badly as most other stocks when the markets sank over the last month and/or recovered faster.
  • We hope this List  again beats the S&P 500. But the S&P may go down and so can YSL #5
  • My favorite way of looking this is to choose a handful of stocks and buy when the MO dips. The lower the better
  • Paul often comments on these stocks daily in the comments section of the blog.

Obviously we can’t guarantee anything and you take this advice at your own risk

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING


YSL 2012

A more actively managed stock list.

See Paul’s Updates in the Comments Section

Updated 01/05/12

Updated 2/25/12

Updated 3/31/2012

Link to Data result chart of 1/5/12

This stock list is much more fluid than in the past. Check out the Homepage of the blog and especially Paul’s Corner for changes.

It’s a rotating list with additions and subtractions

That may be shut down if Long Term Outlook is negative.

AKRX Akorn, Inc. engages in the manufacture and marketing of diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceutical products, hospital drugs, and injectable pharmaceuticals in the United States and internationally. It offers products in various specialty areas, including ophthalmology, antidotes, anti-infectives, pain management, anesthesia, and vaccines.

BKI - Buckeye Technologies engages in the manufacture and distribution of cellulose-based specialty products. It operates in two segments, Specialty Fibers and Nonwoven Materials. The Specialty Fibers segment offers chemical cellulose, customized fibers, and fluff pulp derived from wood and cotton cellulose materials using wetlaid technology.

CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in the United States. It also operates restaurants in Toronto, Canada and in London, the United Kingdom. As of October 20, 2011, it operated 1,100 restaurants. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. (Now serving the former middle class!)

ENB Enbridge Inc

FAST – Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wholesaler and retailer of industrial and construction supplies in the United States and internationally

IBM International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides information technology (IT) products and services worldwide. Its Global Technology Services segment provides IT infrastructure and business process services, including strategic outsourcing, process, integrated technology, and maintenance services, as well as technology-based support services.

KOG - Kodiak Oil & Gas

LEN – Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding, financial services, and real estate businesses in the United States.

MA MasterCard Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, provides transaction processing and related services to customers principally in support of their credit, deposit access, electronic cash and automated teller machine payment card programs, and travelers’ cheque programs. Its payment solutions include payment programs, marketing, product development, technology, processing, and consulting and information services.

MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation, through its subsidiaries, develops, markets, sells, and distributes beverages in the United States and internationally. Formerly ticker symbol HANS.

RYL – The Ryland Group, Inc. operates as a homebuilders and a mortgage-finance company in the United States. Its operations in homebuilding process range from design, construction, and sale to mortgage origination, title insurance, escrow, and insurance services to its homebuyers

TSCO Tractor Supply Company operates retail farm and ranch stores in the United States. Its stores offer a selection of merchandise, including equine, pet, and animal products, such as items required for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, including lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; maintenance products for agricultural and rural use; and work/recreational clothing and footwear.

FL – Foot Locker, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of athletic footwear and apparel. The company operates in two segments, Athletic Stores and Direct-to-Customers.

HD – The Home Depot Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer.

IMAX – IMAX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment technology company specializing in motion picture technologies and presentations worldwide.

URI – United Rentals, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental company. It offers approximately 3,000 classes of equipment for rent to customers comprising construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities, homeowners, and government entities.

NB - This list may change so watch the comments section of blog.

As of 10/28 YSL #6 = +6.50% & S&P 500 =+9.41% .

Past Results

  • 2002 – 2007 - Investors411 outperformed the S&P 500 by investing in ETF’s of emerging market countries like EWZ (Brazil) EEM (emerging markets) ILF (Latin America) FXI (China) and others.
  • 2008 Investors411 lost @ -13% vs a @ -35% loss for the S&P 500. We were able to recognize and get out ahead of financial meltdown
  • 2009 Investors411 +35.5% benchmark S&P 500 +22%
  • 2010 Investors411 developed a timing strategy and used bothYOUR Stock List” and later in the year developed a aggressive ETF portfolio All did better than S&P 500 (see above) Example from 11/22 to 1/1/11 the ETF portfolio did +32% (see above for more on YSL #1 ,2 ,3, 4. &5)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING



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