Due to the overwhelming requests from YOUR emails and conversations Investors411 is going to be focusing more on LONG TERM INVESTMENTS. Investors will still cover trends, YSL’s, ETF’s etc., but for May one segment will focus on Long Term Investments – Dividend Producing Stocks. (see below)

Praising Bush

Investors411 has roasted and toasted Bush over the years. However, I do give former President Bush  credit in helping to catch bin Laden.

Two actions that former President Bush took helped in capturing bin Laden. No matter how you feel about the illegitimacy and uselessness of the Iraq war, these factors still count.

  • Bush replaced Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld with Bill Gates. Gates team was far superior to Rummy’s.  He was there in the situation room with Obama when the navy seals raided bin Laden’s hideout.
  • Bush replaced incompetent generals with the far more able Petraeus. Petraeus realized it was important to win the hearts and minds of the people, an almost impossible tack when your an occupier of a foreign country. He didn’t win all the heart and minds, but he was better at it than his predecessors. His conduct lead to a better situation overall and therefore more actionable intelligence.

Yes, for frequent blogger, EW, Obama get’s the lion’s share of credit, but let’s not forget Bush.

Manipulated vs. Managed

For many moons, Investors411 has used the term “manipulated” when referring to Bernanke, the Fed, POMO, Quantitative Easing etc.  A perhaps better, and certainly softer term would be “managed.” Manipulated has a more negative connotation.

Only time will tell wether managed or manipulated is the more appropriate term.  So far “manage” works for no depression, a robust stock market, -700,00 to +250,000 employed. But many see dark clouds for the future. So lets call it – managed/manipulated

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.43% down
NASDQ +0.46% down
S&P 500 +0.38% down
Russell 2000 +0.49% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • OIL (WTIC) traded all the way from @$102 to $95 and settled at $98 Down almost 13% for the week
  • Silver stopped the bleeding and rallied over 2% Friday after a 25% to 30% fall for the week.
  • Other commodities fell less severely and stocks were down
  • The major question in investors minds is the indecision  between deflation (double dip recession) and inflation.
  • This week - Europe Crisis, Commodity Rally/Rout, Economic Conditions
  • Big rally at open fell apart because of rising dollar.
  • Thursday’s weekly jobs number (horrible last week) is the big number for the week.
  • NB – A lot of $$$ has come out of commodities and is looking for somewhere to park - so advantage bulls

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Second big move higher +0.97% on Friday. Sure looks like dollar bulls won the week long war (see Thursday’s Investors411) This move wiped out almost 11 days of the dollar falling. For stocks = Bearish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on Friday  rose to -13.31 Below zero which is bullish, but not yet overbought = Neutral

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Dividends

Dividend Stocks vs. Non-Dividend Payers

Dividend producing stocks have two potential advantages.

  • The potential for capital appreciation
  • A second revenue stream from a dividend which is payed out to investors by the company

See chart above for long term results

Filters

In order to choose from the aprox. 1600 dividend producing stocks they had to be filtered for certain criteria. So that you may do this yourself the FREE sites I used were -

  • Yahoo Finance – The preceding link is set to KMP,  a dividend producing for stock I own. Yahoo Finance simply organizes it all on one page. Charting to the right, daily activity including the dividend rate (6.10%) & up to the date news in the center, and all the fundamentals listed to the left
  • Dividends.comAgain, the preceding link is set to KMP. In my Google Search I write the ticker symbol “KMP” then the word “dividend” and Dividends.com link is one of the top choices. Up comes a some very relevant information on KMP and its dividend that’s FREE. Great for an initial search. Dividends.com is mostly a PAY site that offers a two week FREE trial and uses some proprietary filters.
  • Lists of Dividend Stocks – All you have to do to get many recommendations on top dividend stocks is, again, use Google – It FREE- WSJ, Seeking Alpha, CNBC, Motley Fools, Jim Jubak, and a host of others offer their top picks.  Hunt away.
  • How Dividends Work – At Dividends.com , Wikipedia and Investopedia there’s more information.

What Filters were used to generate this list.

  • The chosen stock should be a dividend raiser. A stock whose dividend is stabile (good) going up (better) over a sustained period is better than one going down.
  • Capital appreciation – You want the price of the stock you choose to be going up.
  • Performance in a meltdown –  The 2008.2009 meltdown was used as criteria. Those stocks whose went way down may have rebounded well but this list looked for those stocks that were less volatile.
  • Tax considerations – Dividends in Limited Partnerships & REITS are often taxed less.

Later this week, probably Wednesday, Investors411 will start with the sexy, high octane , high risk dividend plays. Two that I own have 19% and 14% annual dividends and some capital appreciation to boot.  We’ll start with those two and their competitors.

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Positions

Tea Leaves – Bearish dollar, lots of free cash floating around from sellers of commodities(bullish) and a Neutral MO = No clear trend. Hard to call bought probably slight short term advantage to bulls.

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD.

  • ZSL trade was officially closed Friday. If you followed silver and Investors411 you made +20% on SLV in April & +30% on ZSL in May
  • Would consider ZSL(double short silver) again if SLV approached last weeks low. The major part of any fall usually happens early, but there may be more to the downside in commodities in the medium term. A rebound, at least in short term, should continue in commodities.
  • No trending ETF’s currently under consideration

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Check out Paul R’s Comments on stocks and sectors daily and Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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