Real News

Be still my beating heart, Hillary Clinton, gets it and she’s not afraid to tell the world.

Our Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton launched a verbal broadside against American media and its headlined in the Huffington Post One of the sheep/cows has woken up to the fact of just how phony American media is.

Clinton -

  • Al Jazeera offers “real news”
  • US is loosing “information war” in the world

“You may not agree with it [Al Jazeera], but you feel like you’re getting real news around the clock instead of a million commercials and, you know, arguments between talking heads and the kind of stuff that we do on our news which, you know, is not particularly informative to us, let alone foreigners.

More Sophisticated Trading

One of Investors411 mottos is to try to keep it simple. So the following is a bit out of context, but it involves two long term position which I hold and you may be interested in. They involve leveraged ETF’s UCO and TMV, & the use of covered calls.

  • TMV is 3x leveraged (bearish) to 20+ year treasury bonds. I think inflation is inevitable because of all the quantitative easing and yields will eventually rise.
  • UCO is 2x leveraged oil prices. I think, because of growing demand and limited low cost oil higher prices are here to stay.

I have bought these stocks and sold/opened a call option on them. Example – I bought 100 shares of UCO last week at $51, and sold a call at $55 for March 18th. This means the other person has the right to buy my UCO for $55 on the 3rd Friday of the month. That person payed me $160 to do this or about 3% premium. So I made 3% already and on March 18th if everything works out I can sell another covered call on the same UCO and make another premium. Sweet, but there are dangers and lots of other factors involved.

  • Sorry ran out of time and I’ve just started. - to be continued. – see comments section later today for more.



KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary





Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.59% up
NASDQ +1.84% flat
S&P 500 +1.72% up
Russell 2000 +2.22% -



Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • The same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building trading pattern gains in small volume. This time is was BIG gains
  • The impact of higher oil prices around the world has become a threat to globalized growth and US markets have not yet decided the impact higher oil prices
  • Many forced to cover short positions, so we had a big swing up
  • Oil prices above $100 (now for two days) will have a bigger impact on emerging markets than the USA. So the longer prices stay high the worse it is for the economy and eventually stocks.
  • Alan Greenspan’s view on the economy
  • Jobs report for February below – Remember a good jobs number means the more likely quantitative easing will end sooner rather than later and/or there will be no QE #3. Scheduled ending June 30th. So good news on jobs may be bad news for stocks.

Employment numbers for Feb. are - 8.9% unemployment Figure and +192,000 jobs created.

Good headlines for the public and about what was expected. AP on numbers



Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell again. This time -0.24% yesterday . Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index (see below) For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to  +24.63Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. MO Stocks outlook = Neutral/Bearish



Reading The Tea Leaves

The McClellan Index has worked almost flawlessly over the past few months. Check out the chart above. Therefore, with the MO at +25, in the short term we are probably very near a top. Longer term trend is still with the bulls.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Clear 2 month pattern of bears ruling Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPLBounced off its 50 DMA support level. Back approaching new high



The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) Inched out to new two month high yesterday
  • RJA 1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • UCO -
  • UWM was bought  yesterday at 47.34

Another 3% trailing stop today on both REMX & RJA today.

UCO -Will sell 1/2 of UCO if profits exceed 5%. 5% trailing stop

UWM – A +25 on the MO shows there is not a lot of upside left in the UWM. So will probably sell into small rally and have set 3% trailing stop. Buying with such a high MO was probably a mistake.

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

DBC(Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETNnot an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)


Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


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