Elizabeth Warren

News/Trends /Politics

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.04% up
NASDQ -1.89% up
S&P 500 -1,95% up
Russell 2000 -1.19% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points

  • Yesterday’s heavy volume sure liked a climax sell off or the start of one. Volume dramatically higher has wiped out the weak holder of stocks, and there is room for an upside move.
  • Single largest piece of financial news is the dramatic move higher for Japanese currency . Another economic blow to Japan All good coming from Japan will cost more and what’s called the “carry trade” has ended.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose yesterday +0.46% Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar directly above a support level. = Neutral.
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to--88,39. Clearly oversold, but news from Japan trumps everything =Bullish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Japan reactor developments trump all technical aspects of the market. However, you have to start to think that at least some of the worst case senerio is built into stock prices.

This is a chart of the MO for the past 3 years The MO has fallen to -90 about 6 times in the last three years and each time it has improved dramatically within a couple days. It has not been this low in almost a year.

When you add the  flow of the Fed POMO money coming into the market to the fact that only strong holders of stocks are left you have a formula for a rally.

Yes, there could easily be another leg down on the Japanese reactor situation worsening. But for those with guts to buy when everyone else is selling now is the time. More reasonable investors will want to wait for another leg down or conclusion to the Japan reactor problem. Perhaps, A more sensible and cautious approach.

Stocks in pre market trading are moving higher. Moving up on no significant news from Japan is a positive sign. Moving up on bad news would be better.

Bottom Line – An oversold rebound is likely and shouldl turn into a rally if Japan situation stabilizes.

The one worry is Fed POMO runs out on June 30. If stocks are bad, there will probably be more quantitative easing. But the uncertainty over this hurts stocks.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now down below $100.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL -
  • Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • No positions held.

Considering UWM or TNA near the open if it does not open dramatically higher. Could be a very short term trade.  See comments section of blog for timing.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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