RelaxInvestors411 is taking a break

Will be back on 4/25 Some links and comments below

  • No change in general market outlookStill bubblicious and CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH If we close below last weeks low outlook changes to NEUTRAL
  • Short term bearish tend, still in place as of closing on Friday even though we’ve had three days of slight gains.
  • For the top 3 investments for the 2nd quarter LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • For YOUR Stock List - LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • For information on all suggested portfolios LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • For why we are Investors in Wonderland LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • For a message to my fellow cows LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • Our proven indicator of an oversold or overbought market has been the McClellan Oscillator (+/- 60 a rough guide)

Be sure to check out the comments section for Paul’s enlightened comments on the markets.

Reading The Tea Leaves

June 30th is the date that the Fed’s quantitative easing is “supposed” to end. The zero% interest rates and QE has forced anyone seeking higher returns into stocks or junk bonds.

Markets will have a growing supply of $ till then and even if it does completely shut down that supply of money will still be in the economy. So as both the stimulus (Obama compromise) winds down and “supposedly” QE 2 ends we loose the money supply that has driven stocks higher.

Two major questions arise.

  • Will frightened investors front run June 30th and yank their money out? - This would be shown by a big  INCREASE in volume on down days for the stock market – This has not happened yet.
  • Once QE 2 ends, who will buy our treasury bonds? We’ve already seen Pimco (largest private US bond company) get out of treasuries. I agree with the group that thinks that if a storm comes after June 30th the Fed will be forced into some other kind QE.

On another matter

Friday night Goldman Sach’s Jan Hatzius again dropped GDP outlook for USA from 3.5% at start of year to 2.5% a few weeks ago and 1.75% Friday night. Aside – yes GS is a Vampire Squid (link is yet another example) but most of the time someone from GS or their protegee has run treasury and many key financial  post in the White House for over a decade. They have the inside info. While this downgrade hurts the USA economically, emerging market growth is far more critical to globalized US stocks.


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