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Ronald Reagan – Historic Hero

For most of the World (and me) Republican Ronald Reagan and Russian President  Mikhail Gorbachev most historic and heroic event was the signing of the 1987 Treaty Limiting Nuclear Weapons.

Democrat, Barak Obama, along with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have agreed to another historic & heroic treaty further limiting nuclear weapons to about 1550 deployable warheads each. Now its up to our Senate and their Duma to approve the treaty. Trouble is  US Senators like John McCain have promised “no cooperation” with Democrats and their is an election coming up in November. Happy we did not elect a man who puts political vengeance in front of American safety. Why we should pass this treaty (all the protocols have been set in advance)  ASAP and not wait is obvious.

  • A 30% reduction means less nuclear weapons in the world (US & Russia have @95%)
  • A 30% reduction, and no reduction in defensive missile systems, means 30% less to defend against.
  • A 30% reduction is 30% less missiles a terrorist can get his hands on.
  • A reduction by Russia and the US gives them a better moral position in asking others to reduce or not develop nukes (Iran)
  • Another verifiable treaty with Russia, like the first could lead to more.

Behind the scenes, those who benefit from fear & profit from weapons growth are powerful and will fight this treaty. Ironically terrorists have killed 30+ in Russian subways today.

Frank Rich Scores Again

NYT’s Frank Rich scored another slam dunk with his Sunday editorial on right wing rage/violence – “The Rage is Not About Heath Care.” Today, when you think about left wing radicals in the USA you think about Michael Moore, and a huge group of pacifists protestors, but right wing radicalism has a clear and present violent side that YOU have voiced concerns about in the comments section of the blog.(See Bob Sadinsky for latest).


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.08% down
NASDQ -0.10% down
S&P 500 +0.07% down
Russell 2000 -0.02% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Light volume and stocks went nowhere Friday despite a big drop in the dollar (see below). The sinking of a S. Korean warship was used as the reason stocks went nowhere.  This has been downplayed by western governments.

Monthly JOBS report on Friday is the big news of the week. Analyst’s expect a positive +100,000+ jobs created. Some are expecting a lot more.

Fearless Forecast for Last Week - Oops, expected a down week and we rallied a bit. This breaks a string of correct calls.  Expected Republican investors believed all the “Armageddon” hype surrounding Health Care and it would transfer to stronger regulations for financial stocks.  It barely dented stocks. Money talks.

Fearless Forecast for This Week. – Up week. The big dollar drop Friday took some of the pressure off stocks. The conventional wisdom is that there will be a good (+100,000 to 150,000) jobs report on Friday. Remember –  Too good is bad for stocks, because it will mean interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. While stocks rallied last week the McClellan Oscillator fell. So we are no longer over bought.

Believe Market’s closed on Good Friday.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell a bit to -19.61 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. -  The $NYMO chart has made a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bears Rule.
  • US Dollar – fell significantly -0.69%. This takes some of the pressure off Friday’s “almost merits a DANGER… warning” What the dollar does over the next few weeks is critical to stocks and economics around the world. The dollar has risen 10% since Dec.. This means that US & China (their money is pegged to ours) exports are 10% more expensive to the rest of the world.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

3D stocks – IMAX, DWA, RGC, CNK - Investors411 will be trying to build long term positions in these and related 3D technology stocks. The last two are major theater chains.

The DWA, 3D How to Train Your Dragon’s movie opened to a respectable $43+ million weekend, but still popular AIWL (#2 at 17+ million) stole some 3D screens from Dragons. Comparison to another 3D movie same time last year (Monster’s vs. Aliens) $59.3 million. Detailed Box Office info here

Bottom Line – DWA will probably be the weakest of the 3D stocks.  In part because of the competition. If I remember correctly there are going to be 24 3D movies released this year. We will probably see a dip in in 3D stocks today/this week. All 3D stocks fell on Friday and will probably fall today (maybe tomorrow) Would look at this as a Buy the dip opportunity especially for IMAX, RGC & CNK.

Sold FXI position (see Positions section at top of blog)

One rule of investing is to limit your losses – No matter how good a stock or idea is its always good to limit your losses or know when you will sell.  I usually have a 7% loss limit on stocks.

if a Have a stop on 1/2 of DWA at what it was bought for.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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