Photo of Lake in Iran


War In Iran?

Is the US already in an undeclared war in Iran?

Investors411 has reported in the past that Obama is 10 times more likely to use drones in targeted assassinations than Bush.

This sure looks at least like a cold war. Will it get hot? Betting odds from Intrade on an overt US and/or Israel air strike on Iran by June 2012 = 30%


Payroll Tax Cut


Obama makes case for extending Payroll tax cuts for middle class Americans. Most Republicans oppose this. Romney, of course is flip flopping. Taxes would increase by @ $1000 for most middle class families. LINK to story


Presidential Poll Numbers

Most folks realize Newt Gingrich is up in the polls for Republican Presidential nomination. Voting starts in a month. In the first four voting states Romney is moving in the opposite direction. LINK to story. – Poll compilation.

Newt’s rise has been too meteoric, but this is also a significant sign that Romney may be in trouble.

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STOCKS

Will There Be a

Santa Claus Rally?

The Myths

Investors/Traders always chatter about a hopeful Santa Clause rally in December. This rally has nothing to do with

  • The news from Europe
  • The existence of Santa Clause
  • Any technical value placed on market trends

The Reality

At the end of the year more conservative fund managers (mutual, hedge 401k managers) have to INVEST their money or explain to INVESTORS why their $$$ are earning next to nothing in a money market account.

For the last four+ months worldwide equities have been in turmoil. These conservative fund mangers hate high risk often measured by the VIX (see chart) As you can see the VIX has basically been above 30 for 4 months and recently dropped below.

The below 3o is kind of an all clear signal, and these conservative investors are sitting on 4 months worth of money.

Therefore – There’s a strong possibility we’ll see Santa Clause.

Of course, some strong fundamental factor can  disable Santa’s sleigh.

Yesterday Standard and Poors (a major rating agency) did put most of Europe on “negative credit watch” for a downgrade. Not enough to stop Santa but  a series of events like this my put the sleigh out of commission.

Strong correlation between Europe and US stock opening price

Germany’s DAX today down -0.58% at 6:30 AM EST

DAX down -1.11% at 8:45 AM EST

Other European indexes doing better than DAX

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to +25.45. 50DMA at +10.72 = NEUTRAL

We’re starting to get close to mildly oversold territory on the MO, but not close enough to change the bias from NEUTRAL.


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Paul’s Corner

[Congratulations to Paul - A new Grandfather - editor]


YSL 7 chart observations based on Dec 5 close.

Please refer to the “Buy The Dip PDF” for proper buy opportunities in many instances.

LINK

AKRX extended, let it settle down.

CATM buyable provided the gap holds.

CMG pocket pivot signals past two days, stuck in trading range, extended from the 50

DECK buyable sitting above the 50 and the 17

DLTR buyable on any pull back.

FTK on the move, buy any pull back.

HANS top of trading range

HLF sitting on the 50

IMAX check with : )D for details,  buyable on any pull back.

IBM top of current trading range

MC buyable once it climbs above 383.35

RL sitting on the 50

SIMO sitting on the 17 and buyable if it climbs above 19.50

SWI on the move up, buy any trading pull back.

TSCO sitting on the 17

This evening Dec 6, HGSI user Dr. Jeffrey Scott is back to present his refresher on HGSI software and, as importantly, share what he is up to in these challenging markets. Jeffrey always puts a new spin on each Webinar presentation so we encourage new and veteran users to come back for more. And he will provide his usual audience pleasing demonstration of how he is currently managing his own stock portfolio by building nightly watch lists.

You can register for this Free Live Webinar at:

www2.gotomeeting.com/register/709221386

MY standard worthless disclaimer applies, also at this time I do own several of the above stocks. Buyers beware as they say!


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Positions

YSL #7 is out and Paul has been updating it in the comment section of the blog. – Some excellent choices here.

SSO – (ETF that is @ 2X long the S&P 500) Bought, on dip yesterday PM at 46.20

USO – (Oil ETF and UCO 2x oil) under consideration on dips.

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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

The Fed has seemingly committed to do whatever it takes to hold things together. (US equities to the European Union). Don’t fight the Fed.  However successful short term fixes do create negative long term consequences.

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CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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