Greenwald

WikiLeaks

CBS has published a can extensive compilation/summary of WikiLeaks documents that you can judge for yourself instead of listening to all the spin. Their title -” How WikiLeaks Enlightened US”

Transparency is essential to a vibrant Democracy.  Is the USA shifting toward a more dictatorial state like China and Russia that practice greater censorship of the press and persecution of those who oppose the government?

WikiLeaks has exposed no “Top Secrets” like Daniel Ellsberg did decades ago or the NYT did last decade. They have published “secrets” Here’s a Debate featuring Glenn Greenwald backing Jullian Assange and Fran Townsand in opposition

I do have have a bias because I’d love to see WikiLeaks information on the Shadow Banks and strongly believe  transparency is vital to freedom and democracy.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.07% flat
NASDQ -0.38% flat
S&P 500 -0.02% flat
Russell 2000 -0.77% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Markets were flat & volume abysmal AGAIN
  • There are indications that at least some fresh money may be coming into stocks in early January. (see below)
  • The dollar has fallen like a stone for last 3 days and broke its support level For US stocks = Bullish
  • Big news at end of week is the unemployment report.
  • Here’s Seeking Alpha’s Jeff Miller on this week – “Less Risk, More Reward

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell significantly Friday breaking a support level.  -0.70% Friday. or stocks this is = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries] Again NO DATA. Perhaps its the holidays BDI is at 1,773 and is approaching its major support at 1700 = Bearish Going to drop this if I can’t find data) Another indicator to use would be copper prices which are very high and therefore contradict the BDI.
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to +14.59Neutral
  • 10 year T Bill (TNX)  In consolidation pattern  Some big recent moves shows big indecision = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The first days of the month and Mondays are historically good days for US stock markets.

Friday we went over the possibility of an infusion of new money into the market in early January. All those giant shadow bank  and Wall Street executives have to put their bonus money somewhere and there is some evidence that it has started to trickle back into stocks (See Friday’s Investors411)

The dramatic reversal in Oil prices Friday caught at least me with my pants down.(see UCO below)  Oil prices more than making up the gains of the previous two sessions of losses is bullish for oil, commodities and stocks.

The  dollar significantly through a support level is a very bullish sign.

So when you put this together with the dollar breaking a signifiant support level Friday - At least for the short term -The Bulls are back.

The MO is at +15 and therEfore has lots o “wiggle room” before it reaches +or - 60. Room for a rally

Repeat- AAPL the world’s #1 tech stock is the canary in the coal mine. If the General rolls over watch out.

UUP the tracking ETF for the dollar is what to watch today. If it falls again – Bulls could Roar

Note Well - The dollar’s fall & corresponding rise in oil prices is something I should have noticed at 3:00 EST yesterday. Unfortunately, its called get a life, and I was otherwise occupied. If not I would have bought some long positions Friday PM.

HOPEFULLY, INVESTORS411 EDUCATES YOU SO THAT YOU CAN LEARN/UNDERSTAND WHY MARKETS SHOULD MOVE HIGHER OR LOWER

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) – 1/2 position
  • #2 UWM
  • SLV – (Silver ETF) Bought Wednesday at (see comments section of blog.)
  • DGP -(2x gold ETF) Bought yesterday at 41.86

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices) From Friday – “Oil prices got over extended and a short term reversal is to be expected”. Mea Culpa – Waited too long for dip as UCO rose 4+% yesterday and got stuck with a 1% loss by selling early Friday. (see Friday’s blog) Too high to by right now.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Friday – Way too hot to buy now. Like a zillion investors who missed this initial jump we are waiting for a pullback. Lost -2.04% Friday. Would buy any similar drop today, but afraid its not going to happen.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. On a role with three big up days in a row. Short term traders may risk buying a dip, but again afraid there will be no dip.

Note - The time has come to start rotating out of small cap stocks. They have had a great run. They will go up if the other major US indexes rally. However they probably won’t outperform as well as they did last year.  Investors will be looking at other leveraged ETF’s that have larger caps. So will sell some UWM today – hopefully into a rally.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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