Government Shut Down

The absolute hight of stupidity.

  • Issue #1 is jobs, job, jobs. Without jobs there is no one to pay taxes. Those that have no jobs drain the system by needing more welfare or becoming thieves to survive. Stupid
  • They are arguing over $30 billion when the debt is $13 trillion. This is like arguing over a crum that fell on the floor instead of the huge loaf of bread that is our debt. Stupid

One Solution“We have a one-time, 100 percent tax on all wealth (net worth) of all United States residents, with a $10 million per-person exemption. With household wealth at around $60 trillion, that should be plenty to pay off the accumulated debt and shore up Social Security and Medicare for the next century.” and it would fund all those wars that the military industrial complex needs to grow.

Don’t like that idea- another “The Federal Reserve creates $20 trillion in money but, instead of crediting it to large banks’ accounts at the Fed, it credits it to Treasury’s account. Again, no more debt

Promise that either one would be a one time fix and debt crisis solved. These “convenient concepts” come from the brain of James Kwak at the Baseline Senerio.  For more and is he serious? - here’s the link

Gold and Silver

For the last five years I’ve been the treasurer of a senior center and gold has been our top returning investment.

If you’ve never seen these two bears make a case for something you’re missing a funny and sometimes enlightening video. You may not agree with the doomsday people. I think their case is over the top. But, they do have some valid concepts or flows (moving in that direction)

This is #5 in the series of why by silver. Did you know there are 15 kilograms of silver in each tomahawk missile?


KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary




Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.58% up
NASDQ +0.72% up
S&P 500 +0.67% up
Russell 2000 +1.31% -



Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Yawn – Another low volume rally. Fed liquidity has a muzzle muzzle on the mouths of bears.
  • Any bears or black swans who have fought this trend or spoken out against it have been slaughtered by Uncle Ben and the Fed.
  • Another $5 billion pumped into economy – Oh and by the way the Fed is now , by far, the biggest holder of US debt
  • Fed POMO all comes to an end on June 30th. – Whose going to buy our bonds/debt then? Of course after July 1 happens, the Fed could say OMG lets do QE #3.
  • Enjoy the rally while it lasts.
  • Big Jobs number on Friday. Means much more for the economy than it does for stocks, Every day foreign consumers are gaining wealth and globalized US companies don’t really care who buys.



Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.17. Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but it started  a four day bull run that’s stalled out over the last three days and could be turning.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +42.25. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Any significant rally would put the MO over +60 = Neutral/Bearish



Reading The Tea Leaves

MO broke its +30 resistance barrier and usually +60  has historically been the level of change – stocks get too overbought. Now is clearly not the time to buy stocks. But to hold or sell.

However the dollar has become the key metric to watch. The dollar is the trump cardIt’s bolded below. There’s a good chance the dollar may have hit a short term top and is ready to fall. This would be bullish especially for gold and silver.

What to watch today - Market movers

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya not good.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading just above its 50 DMA. Very Interesting that this latest rally happened without AAPL’s/technologies leadership. Leading sectors rotated to energy & industrials.
  • Japan Rector Developments



The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up +12% now. MO getting to highwill sell into any rally
  • A Hedge – Sold EWV for 35.55 and UWM for 48,75 – Reasons for sale listed yesterday. The total gain was @+2%

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - I’ve jaw boned this for way too long and waited for the right dip, but missed it.  This is a credible long term asset to have. I’d buy any dip. I do own both in other accounts.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)



Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”



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