.
.
First thing to look at this AM and every AM is Spanish (and Italian) 10 year Bond Prices
.
At 6:00AM EST
Spanish bonds are ABOVE 6.00%
.
Bad News
.
.
up 2.41%
.
to 6.12%
_______

Latest price before publication at 8:00
.
Better News

Spanish Bond Prices Falling
Moving in Right Direction
.
6.08%
.
At 9:20 EST Spanish Bonds back below 6%
Even Better
.
5.99%


.
********************
********************
,

STOCKS

.

.

Our major Problem is

We no Longer Practice Capitalism in most of

The Financial Sector

See Feb. 13 through 29th Blog Posts

.

But instead run

A globalized interconnected extraction system –

an unregulated, over leveraged casino

or

a $600 trillion dollar derivatives market.

..

.

Friday we saw the first signs of

PANIC

as investors remembered the 2008 Meltdown

“Deja vu all over again”

.

_________

.

The Same Old Story

.

Just like in the years preceding 2008 banksters lent out money to  mortgage customers that were poor risks. They did the same in Europe to countries. Banksters, thought they were protected, because the bundled and sold debt on a massive opaque, unregulated, derivatives market.

In 2008 they were not protected as Lehman collapse, was the last straw, in a   systemic worldwide credit meltdown.

Friday was a Disaster for

.

.

FINANCIALS

.

Nobody really knows how far over leveraged these globalized interconnected giants are to the now troubled Euro bond market in Spain and Italy.

.

Therefore Bankstas got toasted

.

  • DB - Germany’s largest TBTF lost 4.65%
  • BNP – Frances’s largest TBTF lost 6.24%
  • BAC – USA’s largest TBTF lost 5.34%

Others TBTF’s

got toasted too

.

See Sunday’s comments for more.

______________.

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

You’d think Central Banks would do everything possible to drive down Spanish bond yields early today.

We’ll See.

7.00% is the generally acceptable figure that a meltdown could occur. We got over those levels late last year several times, but it looked like we were out of the woods as rates fell below 5.00%.

Obviously, we are not at 7.00% yet. But the steady 6 week rally to the high of the year has spooked bankstas and their investors across the world.

It is simply beyond me to predict when, where, how or if, Central Banks will intervene. They have done so in the past – Investors411 refers to this as the cavalry coming to the rescue.

FYI – Bankstas are going to spin they are afraid of regulations. Therefore they got toasted. It could be that regulators have forced them to stop over leveraging so profits are less – but I doubt it.

.

Above Expectations Earnings could mute some of the Panic over rising bond prices.

.

***********************


PAUL’s Corner

.

..

I spent the weekend driving fence posts in the garden instead of my usual leisurely tour of the markets. I did however get a few minutes to look at the charts using HGSI and EdgeRater and was about to copy some of the charts for today’s Paul’s Corner when I checked my fried Stephen Gerritz’s blog and I see Steve did all of the work for me. I posted a link to Steve’s blog in a Paul’s Corner Extra in the comments section Saturday afternoon.

Stephen Gerritz Blog Link:

Pretty good market analysis and with just 6 charts! That’s all you need for market analysis you ask? Eh, pretty much. If you hadn’t noticed, I pretty much rely on what the charts tell us and leave the nuts and bolts of the market for Barr to sort out.

So what do those charts tell us? Take a look at the 5th chart down on Steve’s blog, the Woody Indicator Chart.

Image Link:

The Woody Indicator is a proprietary indicator created by Ian Woodward from HGSI. Using this indicator to look at the VIX (The Volatility Index) we can see it is currently up in the “Run For The Hills” zone. The Woody Indicator is suggesting extreme caution in the market at this time.

I see Steve added a Blog Addendum 04 14 2012 Sunday afternoon where he provided a link to Fred Richard’s latest newsletter. Take a few minutes and read Fred’s comments particularly his AAPL comments:

“Apple represents about 20% of the total NASDAQ valuation. Unfortunately, it just broke its 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-December 2011.According to the latest data from MarketSmith™, 130 funds closed out their positions in Apple. Perhaps, investors should be increasingly nervous about the direction of a market that only moves up on low volume.”

So while the great unwashed were merrily chasing AAPL up the flag pole, the institutions were slowly but surely unloading AAPL.

So my friends, between the Woody Indicator being up in the rafters, AAPL dumping by the institutions, is this market safe? Barr even woke up from the weekend snooze to post a market warning in the comments section Sunday afternoon.

On a personal note, at the HGSI Work Shop group dinner Saturday evening, I had the great pleasure of sitting next to Fred during the dinner. That man is amazing, a great industrialist, educator and market expert.

Oh, let me tell you, for some odd reason it was easier setting fence posts 20 years ago….I can’t figure out why!


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For foreseeable short term future – As long as the Spanish 10 year bond rate is above 6.00% and growing, the outlook will remain NEUTRAL.

,

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Downgrade to

NEUTRAL/

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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