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SOTU

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George “Been Forgotten” Bush went over the top with his “your either with us or against us” proclamation.  A line he later regretted.

Remember, those of us who opposed the Iraq war were hated as un American and not Patriotic. Emotions ran high because of the terrible 911 tragedy, but now some healing  has occurred over a war that was a tragic mistake.


The heart of Obama’s speech

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We don’t begrudge financial success in this country. We admire it. When Americans talk about folks like me paying my fair share of taxes, it’s not because they envy the rich. It’s because they understand that when I get tax breaks I don’t need and the country can’t afford, it either adds to the deficit, or somebody else has to make up the difference – like a senior on a fixed income; or a student trying to get through school; or a family trying to make ends meet. That’s not right. Americans know it’s not right.

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Why are Romney’s Poll numbers Dropping?

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Romney provides the contrast to Obama SOTU and makes Bush’s “you’re either with us or against us”  milquetoast.

The following 20 second video is a perfect example of raging extremism. The kind of shouted hatred that twists the minds of so many of our fellow Americans into blind fear mongered emotionalist.  Romney -

“I’m going to Stuff it Down Obama’s Throat”

Click on photo for 20 second video

As far as timing goes Obama caught a huge break that his SOTU address came directly after Romney released just his 2012 tax returns (13.9% tax rate) that have opened a massive amount of new questions. (future editorials)

More on SOTU here and NYT here


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Short Term Outlook

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  • Apple had a grand slam earnings report and was up 8% in after hours trading. So were Asian markets
  • Repeat from Last Week - ”We have confirmed a higher high on the benchmark index — the S&P 500 (link to chart of S&P near top right of blog). This is a higher high on the charts and longer term its bullish.”
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell  to +41.48. 50DMA at +3.98 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Stocks are slightly overbought, but overallNEUTRAL
  • From Last week – “We are in a low volume rally” In Paul’s Corner he points out the decrease in volume over the last five days. There have been lots of technicians who are calling for a pull back here. I tend to see 1350 1370 as the target on the S&P 500 before a significant retreat. (S&P now at 1314)
  • Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.
  • DAX (Germany) down this AM 0.67% at 7:00 AM EST. Italian bond’s two week long yield fall puts it well out of the 7% danger zone. But yields rose yesterday and this AM to  +6.23%. The Spanish and Italian bond reversal shows some economic stability returning to two of Europe’s largest economies and is bullish
  • NFLX reports earnings after the bell. Watch comments section for details on possible combination Option Trade.

Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Italian 10 year bond

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2012 Stock Forecast

The Raw Data

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The Bad

The OVERVIEW Section of the blog contains a detailed outline of the systemic problems. Even better at the end there are 11 different sources that go over the problems and solutions  facing our country and the world.

  • Too Big to Fail Shadow Banks remain a significant problem. Jon Huntsman was the only candidate with a significant viable solution. Current solutions that rely on Dodd Frank regulators are weak unless laws are further change and enforcement dramatically enhanced.  The oligarchy privatizes gains and rest of us socialize their losses.
  • Globalization continues to benefit emerging markets that supply cheap labor and an oligarchy of wealthy Americans who rake in profits. Its devastating to American workers who see the jobs go abroad and profits to wealthy Americans.
  • Apple Computer is the best example of this. Apple employes 43,000 workers in the USA and contracts 700,000 abroad. Giant American companies have loyalty to profits and not to Americans.
  • Our government is simply overwhelmed by corporate lobbyist and money. For more Robert Reich

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Paul’s Corner


Your Stock List 2012 Additions

and Box 7 Stocks

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There are signs of a short term stalling in the market. The market finished flat Tuesday with declining volume, advancers vs. decliners were virtually even all day but finished slightly up, 1619 Advancers vs.  1376 decliners.  The following chart shows how volume has been declining for the past 5 days.

LINK:

There are no signs the world is coming to an end, but a slight pause to refresh is probably in the cards. The home builders took off this morning and most had a good day.

The following stocks have been added to Your Stock List 2012

RYL – The Ryland Group, Inc. operates as a homebuilders and a mortgage-finance company in the United States. Its operations in homebuilding process range from design, construction, and sale to mortgage origination, title insurance, escrow, and insurance services to its homebuyers. The company offers completed homes; single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and mid-rise buildings, as well as sells lands and lots. It builds homes for entry-level buyers, as well as for first and second-time move-up buyers. RYL reports tonight after the market close, average estimates are 0.06.

LEN – Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding, financial services, and real estate businesses in the United States. Its homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes; and the purchase, development, and sale of residential land. The company’s financial services comprise mortgage financing, title insurance, and closing services for the buyers of homes and others. Its real estate activities include investments in distressed real estate assets.

FAST – Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wholesaler and retailer of industrial and construction supplies. It offers fastener product line under two categories, which include threaded fasteners, such as bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and building projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines and structures; and miscellaneous supplies, including paints, various pins and machinery keys, concrete anchors, batteries, sealants, metal framing systems, wire rope, strut, private-label stud anchors, rivets, and related accessories.

Dave Steckler posted a great blog last evening discussing Home Building and the ITB ETF.

LINK:

In Paul’s Corner this Monday we discussed Box 7 stocks.  The following chart shows the current Box 7 stocks as selected by HGSI criteria.

Keep in mind these are stocks that should be considered turn around stocks. They aren’t guaranteed to make you dime, in fact quite a few Box 7’s perform  really bad, so it’s up to you to carefully pick. We won’t be following these stocks on any sort of basis but will post results from time to time.

CHART:

Disclaimer, stocks listed are for education only, no buy or sell suggestions are made.  At the time of posting I may own any stock on these lists.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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