Home Price Index

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Home Values

The above chart is a more annotated  version of the one Investors411 referenced yesterday. If you LINK HERE you can enlarge chart by clicking on it. Also from The Daily Dish there are some enlightening comments.

Watching Strippers on the Internet

Chatroulette is the women’s name & I guarantee men will have dreams over this VIDEO seen by over 2 million people

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.74 down
NASDQ -1.07 down
S&P -0.77% down
Russell 2000 -0.84% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the monthThe Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades.

Dow closed 15 points below psychologically significant 10,000. We’ve been above 10,000 for 7 weeks. Closing low for year @ 9700. That along with SPX @1020 are the key support levels.

Chinese Water Torture

Or - Slow death by a thousand cuts. If this were a normal market we’d have a big climax sell off and it would all be over. But the retail investors has left in droves (mutual funds outflows down “unprecedented” 17 weeks in a row according to Trim Tabs) Instead we have these agonizingly slow meltdowns dominated by the BB/HFT’s & now the Fed injecting some liquidity. (see past Investors411)

Because of the BB/HFT domination there probably will be NO climax (one or two huge down day in big volume) sell off.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell a healthy -0.39%. Could signal a reversal of bullish trend. Another fall like yesterday’s would be good for stock bulls.  = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell -2.52% yesterday. Second down day in a row after fall in a 5+ week long rally or up days. Long rallies are typical in the BDI. This could be a reversal of trend and bad for emerging markets.  The fall decreased but a three day decline could be the start of a new trend down = Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to -58.98. On the cusp of oversold. Even though the Bullish is the call remember this index has fallen a bit lower than -120 in past. = Bullish

Reading Tea Leaves

When fear is at its greatest – that’s the time to buy. Have we reached that point.

  • The MO at -59 is oversold, but it can get a whole lot lower (-120)
  • Bullish Sentiment at Credit Crisis Lows
  • Katie Stockton of MKM Partners – 55% of stocks oversold in SPX. Widespread oversold conditions exactly like  July,Feb of 2010 & Nov, July 2009 lows the same conditions occurred. Video also has great chart.
  • During the same 2009 & 20010 periods the MO reached lows from -60 to -120.

Remember just a few month ago European debt was going to sink the world and we had a good rally off that. My only hesitation in investing more is I’d like to see the MO at -80

Personally, I’m torn. There’s so much investment fear out there – Am I letting it cloud the facts?

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - Small positions in EWS (Singapore) USO (commodity-Oil)

Traders – Bought TYH at 24.68 & sold 1/2 for a bit more than+3% gain at 25.50, As mentioned in comment section I sold last 1/2 at 24.80. (@o.5% gain) Overall gain on both trades a measly +2%. Still better than a loss.

Investors411 will make TYH short term trade again – Last time the MO was at -68 when the Dow fell 100+ points. Now the MO is at -58 so we’d need over at least a 150+ point drop. Perhaps more.

Investors – We are getting closer to major support levels in an oversold market. I’ve set up conditions to buy over past few days. Those who can handle risk the most could nibble on a BIG dips like traders above. The closer to Dow 9700 or SPX 1020 the better.

Long Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!





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